mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 every piece of guidance, save the Euro, has plenty of cold air so I remain more concerned over suppression than warmth couple of years ago, I wouldn't have felt this way, but Euro has not been a lock at 3 days this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 every piece of guidance, save the Euro, has plenty of cold air so I remain more concerned over suppression than warmth couple of years ago, I wouldn't have felt this way, but Euro has not been a lock at 3 days this year Euro was a tick higher with hp nw this run from last night. It's a game of inches. I'll take wetter vs drier on any run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Western MD special? yeah pretty much.. this run maxes snow from like NE KY thru WV and into W MD then diminishes a bit northeast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 even up there some temp issues though. but the border corridor back into WV pretty much the max zone. good thump in the 12-18z zone though.. .6-.8 liquid. yeah, need it to be an evening/overnight thing. temps arent on our side the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 every piece of guidance, save the Euro, has plenty of cold air so I remain more concerned over suppression than warmth couple of years ago, I wouldn't have felt this way, but Euro has not been a lock at 3 days this year But the picture is back to being very messy with multiple waves/streams interacting. This isn't a simple PNA / northern-jet driven pattern anymore when the GFS was shining. So, whether right or wrong at this time, the ECMWF suite is probably going to be the better tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 every piece of guidance, save the Euro, has plenty of cold air so I remain more concerned over suppression than warmth couple of years ago, I wouldn't have felt this way, but Euro has not been a lock at 3 days this year The GFS has whipped the Euro for most of the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So the EURO has trended somewhat better, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's not a great run for anyone... it will still keep my interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 But the picture is back to being very messy with multiple waves/streams interacting. This isn't a simple PNA / northern-jet driven pattern anymore when the GFS was shining. So, whether right or wrong at this time, the ECMWF suite is probably going to be the better tool. I certainly think the GFS and the SREF are probably too dry though this early in the game there's no reason to say more in a forecast than a chance of rain or snow while throwing out probability. I just finished an article I don't like much as I was spread over three events when the 1st is so complicated it needs it own in depth analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Storm 2 looks good if you like warm drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 euro is colder and wetter for the leesburg area.....so i think its a better run. It can snow at 32-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Storm 2 looks good if you like warm drizzle. I hope storm 2 completely misses us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Storm 2 looks good if you like warm drizzle. now ur talkin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I certainly think the GFS and the SREF are probably too dry though this early in the game there's no reason to say more in a forecast than a chance of rain or snow while throwing out probability. I just finished an article I don't like much as I was spread over three events when the 1st is so complicated it needs it own in depth analysis. Agreed. There are times to get "cute" in the MR/LR and times to be cautious. Clearly, snowfall-wise, this isn't a time to be cute. Good luck with your forecasts. We've been in agreement here for a few days now that the drier solutions are not as likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Storm 2 looks good if you like warm drizzle. Haven't seen that in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Haven't seen that in awhile. wxbell being uber slow so not really sure what the sfc is like. we might get 20 minutes of zr or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 wxbell being uber slow so not really sure what the sfc is like. we might get 20 minutes of zr or something. Scary. Bring it on. I may get an hour tho to your 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 wxbell being uber slow so not really sure what the sfc is like. we might get 20 minutes of zr or something. It's actually .2 zr west of 95. Myself included. ETA: .2 falls with temps between 28-31* (7pm-1am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's actually .2 zr west of 95. Myself included. ETA: .2 falls with temps between 28-31* (7pm-1am) Then rain? I say go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 So the EURO has trended somewhat better, no? yes it will still keep my interest me too...it is very close to being a nice event euro is colder and wetter for the leesburg area.....so i think its a better run. It can snow at 32-33. it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Then rain? I say go big. Only up to 33 by 7am and another .3 or so falls. I doubt for me but somebody west could get some decent ice overnight tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Only up to 33 by 7am and another .3 or so falls. I doubt for me but somebody west could get some decent ice overnight tuesday. No such thing as decent ice. But it figures with our temp profile being what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Only up to 33 by 7am and another .3 or so falls. I doubt for me but somebody west could get some decent ice overnight tuesday. Perhaps. Raw temps are quite iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 basically the cold models are dry and the warm models are wet...so no consensus.... Blend FTW? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is a decent event NW. Temps will trend colder as we get closer. They always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 weatherbell map gives me 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No such thing as decent ice. But it figures with our temp profile being what it is. ice at 32 is not ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is a decent event NW. Temps will trend colder as we get closer. They always do. except on 3/5 and 12/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Perhaps. Raw temps are quite iffy. Agree. It's overnight at least. I really don't care either way. Zr is fun when it happens. Notsomuch for tracking. The entire set of events from mon-sat is a model mess of cascading unknowns with one exception. It will likely rain at some point overnight tue into wed. I'm conceding to just tracking monday and not getting caught in the fray beyond. I'll look but not buy until it's basically on top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 except on 3/5 and 12/10 I will take my chances that the cold air will be there on 2/3 over either of those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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