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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler?


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So, the models seem to be all over the place for Monday. Thoughts on which model is right, and why? Looks like a weather teachable moment.

The spread of solutions is magnified by the compact size of the precip shield. Models are only all over the place because so few people are in the game each run. They are pretty close together in the strength of the system. Somebody here or near us looks to get .5" of precip or more.

IMO- gfs has been catching up but is getting close to all other guidance. Euro has been steadfast but last nights run was probably a burp. Euro ensembles did not agree with the op. It was a northern outlier but previous solutions were more consistent run over run.

NAM is bad past 48 hours or so you can only use it as backup guidance. GGEM is backup guidance too.

A compromise of the gfs/euro with emphasis on the euro ensembles is a decent play.

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That daytime QPF bomb the GGEM is showing is bringing back bad memories of March of last year and our earlier fail this year

 

I would love to see what JB says about it, He leans on it and seems to be more right then wrong. He mentioned the Oz lastnight but hasn't said anything about todays 12z. I give him a lot of credit this year for his calls..

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I would love to see what JB says about it, He leans on it and seems to be more right then wrong. He mentioned the Oz lastnight but hasn't said anything about todays 12z. I give him a lot of credit this year for his calls..

 

Hi, welcome to Amwx.  If you truly value JB's forecasting insights, you are clearly in the right place! 

 

 

 

:axe:

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