olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DC death band? Wait, What? That's supposed to be over Northern MD. Silly Canadians don't know Mid Atlantic climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah... we get lucky though... EZF into S MD rain most of the time and switch over late EZF gets a decent amount of snow as they are in the precip max, but that is kind of the southern extent of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The death band is over Wes's house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So, the models seem to be all over the place for Monday. Thoughts on which model is right, and why? Looks like a weather teachable moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The death band is over Wes's house... ill easily give up the N MD death band for Wes to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 ill easily give up the N MD death band for Wes to cash in. I'm sure the solution is locked in.,.The GGEM is deadly with mesoscale features from 4 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 So, the models seem to be all over the place for Monday. Thoughts on which model is right, and why? Looks like a weather teachable moment. the canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is really cool to have this much model disagreement. Must be torture for some. In an odd way, I kinda like it. It's like the high you get from gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Which ever model gives us the most snow is the one that everyone will say is right no matter how much of an outliner it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, one hour till we get a , a or a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm sure the solution is locked in.,.The GGEM is deadly with mesoscale features from 4 days out... save these posts for PA drive bys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So, the models seem to be all over the place for Monday. Thoughts on which model is right, and why? Looks like a weather teachable moment.The spread of solutions is magnified by the compact size of the precip shield. Models are only all over the place because so few people are in the game each run. They are pretty close together in the strength of the system. Somebody here or near us looks to get .5" of precip or more. IMO- gfs has been catching up but is getting close to all other guidance. Euro has been steadfast but last nights run was probably a burp. Euro ensembles did not agree with the op. It was a northern outlier but previous solutions were more consistent run over run. NAM is bad past 48 hours or so you can only use it as backup guidance. GGEM is backup guidance too. A compromise of the gfs/euro with emphasis on the euro ensembles is a decent play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 save these posts for PA drive bys you can see PA from your grill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you can see PA from your grill no i cant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I love how the Canadian runs in 3 hour increments all the way through..I'm on hour 201... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you can see PA from your grillWe do terrible with modeled jackpots 4 days out! I will be in Baltimore and eagerly await commutergeddon part deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 10z start time what time is 10z in EST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 what time is 10z in EST... 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 no i cant I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I can. nice! You must live a little further north than me. I'm about 3 miles from the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like all you can eat neige for lunch. There's some good support for a pretty juicy area of precip with this system. Who jackpots is completely unknown of course. You would know who will jackpot if you spent more time on this hobby. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 nice! You must live a little further north than me. I'm about 3 miles from the PA line. Actually I was just kidding. I am exactly 3.4 miles to the PA border, but if you go up to the top of the ridge behind my house you can probably see 50-60 miles into PA on a clear day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Actually I was just kidding. I am exactly 3.4 miles to the PA border, but if you go up to the top of the ridge behind my house you can probably see 50-60 miles into PA on a clear day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That daytime QPF bomb the GGEM is showing is bringing back bad memories of March of last year and our earlier fail this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 nice! You must live a little further north than me. I'm about 3 miles from the PA line.So am I. Just east of you by 8 miles & about 6 miles to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That daytime QPF bomb the GGEM is showing is bringing back bad memories of March of last year and our earlier fail this year I would love to see what JB says about it, He leans on it and seems to be more right then wrong. He mentioned the Oz lastnight but hasn't said anything about todays 12z. I give him a lot of credit this year for his calls.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GEFS looks ok for Mon. Most members favor southern track but some ok hits. Wouldn't take much of a bump at all tbh. We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would love to see what JB says about it, He leans on it and seems to be more right then wrong. He mentioned the Oz lastnight but hasn't said anything about todays 12z. I give him a lot of credit this year for his calls.. Hi, welcome to Amwx. If you truly value JB's forecasting insights, you are clearly in the right place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just a few minutes till the Euro pastes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What happened to February rocking? I'm not liking anything the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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