SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If you take the run verbatim it would be some snow on the ground covered by a sleet layer and then some ice. Glacial pack that would probably partially survive the warm rain before the front. Areas N-W could do fairly well. Cities and burbs with an obvious low end of the deal. Definitely, and like you said as long as we're not trending towards a cutter it's a good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I still hold out some hope that CAD will be a bit stronger as we get closer to the event. It does work out more often than not. CAD works well for many up to and during. Usual places also tend to warm quick and flip before many of us would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CAD works well for many up to and during. Usual places also tend to warm quick and flip before many of us would like. I think we can all agree that enough snow to whiting the ground covered by even modest amounts of sleet and ice would be a huge score on this storm. I'm in. Wes is out but he might be in later. We need to convince him. Might be tough though considering he's already forgotten more than I'll ever know about weather. The junker model can never be overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Those highs are racing east for the Tue/Wed storm. It could be mostly rain for me depending on timing. Congrats guy tucked right next to the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM seems to like Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Those highs are racing east for the Tue/Wed storm. It could be mostly rain for me depending on timing. Congrats guy tucked right next to the apps. yeah...we'll change over for sure...but 132 is a pretty money sounding....we'd pick up 2" or so as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM seems to like Monday It does...a 3" snow for me and you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 DC likes snowstorms around super bowls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 yeah...we'll change over for sure...but 132 is a pretty money sounding....we'd pick up 2" or so as depicted seems like it's going the wrong direction as we close but maybe not paying enough attention. i'm more interested in the first event for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 seems like it's going the wrong direction as we close but maybe not paying enough attention. i'm more interested in the first event for now. We're trending back now from a wrapped up to the west rainer. Can't remember the details specifically but when it went to hell from a good track to a west track, the solutions were worse than what we are seeing now. ETA: I went back and looked through the last 8 runs. This is a "snowier" run on the front. Mostly because slp in KY is weaker. Midlevels don't go to heck as fast. Looks like the track is pretty locked overall at this lead. Minor things can help. Most importantly a weaker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We're trending back now from a wrapped up to the west rainer. Can't remember the details specifically but when it went to hell from a good track to a west track, the solutions were worse than what we are seeing now. Hmm, I guess I don't look at every run. It seems worse than the last main hour (0/12) runs of the GFS. I think a consolidated low running right up the apps is about the worst option if you want to hold the low level cold. We're usually better off with it further west as it keeps the southerly flow from being too strong. Then again I also don't like ice events as they're overblown 9.9/10 times in the leadup so maybe I'm being ignorant because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hmm, I guess I don't look at every run. It seems worse than the last main hour (0/12) runs of the GFS. I think a consolidated low running right up the apps is about the worst option if you want to hold the low level cold. We're usually better off with it further west as it keeps the southerly flow from being too strong. Then again I also don't like ice events as they're overblown 9.9/10 times in the leadup so maybe I'm being ignorant because of that. all I care about is getting front end snow..I think it is pretty likely we are flipping..hopefully not to driving rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 all I care about is getting front end snow..I think it is pretty likely we are flipping..hopefully not to driving rain I haven't paid as much attention to those specifics tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I haven't paid as much attention to those specifics tbh. I don't think any of us think it is going to be all snow or all frozen for that mid-week system for the cities anyway, I think most of us are watching that because we might get an inch or two and then some frozen before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't think any of us think it is going to be all snow or all frozen for that mid-week system for the cities anyway, I think most of us are watching that because we might get an inch or two and then some frozen before changeover. no, i know. i wasn't implying that. any storm that turns to rain is a loss in my book. but number padding is good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 no, i know. i wasn't implying that. any storm that turns to rain is a loss in my book. but number padding is good at this point. usually for me they end up being more fun than they seem in advance unless you get driving rain and go to 40 degrees...but stats padding is important too..we probably don't get to a good total without some of our typical messy events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GEFS on board with Monday. Some unusual wrapped up solutions (highly suspect and not wrapped up in a good way) but overall it's a good look and decent consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GEFS on board with Monday. Some unusual wrapped up solutions (highly suspect and not wrapped up in a good way) but overall it's a good look and decent consensus. Happy hour is gonna be rocking. T minus 2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 usually for me they end up being more fun than they seem in advance unless you get driving rain and go to 40 degrees...but stats padding is important too..we probably don't get to a good total without some of our typical messy events... you're definitely more into snow than me. I'm already at the pt in winter where I'd punt most 1-2" events if I could trade them for a 50 degree day. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Happy hour is gonna be rocking. T minus 2 hours... Dr. Yes...T- 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Happy hour is gonna be rocking. T minus 2 hours... I'm thinking the euro shellacks us. Well, relatively speaking. Some good precip producers across the board with GEFS (in a modest even kind of way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 you're definitely more into snow than me. I'm already at the pt in winter where I'd punt most 1-2" events if I could trade them for a 50 degree day. lol. yeah..for sure...but when the events happen even the "haters" tend to dig them more than when they tracked them...I actually often like thump then changeover events better than the high ratio, 0.1" QPF events...and we need the stats of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 you're definitely more into snow than me. I'm already at the pt in winter where I'd punt most 1-2" events if I could trade them for a 50 degree day. lol. Go back to your thread;-) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42621-spring-is-coming-banter-and-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Dr. Yes...T- 5 minutes Damn, how did I forget the great Doctor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 yeah..for sure...but when the events happen even the "haters" tend to dig them more than when they tracked them...I actually often like thump then changeover events better than the high ratio, 0.1" QPF events...and we need the stats of course... true. esp if it's during the day a thump is always fun at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Monday's wave runs into confluence but I suspect the wave is being dampened too quickly. Deformation zones are placed right now similarly to the 29th storm on GFS. I think this keeps trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Monday's wave runs into confluence but I suspect the wave is being dampened too quickly. Deformation zones are placed right now similarly to the 29th storm on GFS. I think this keeps trending. trending south or decent for us....I'm not quite sure what you mean HM??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 trending south or decent for us....I'm not quite sure what you mean HM??? this is what he means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 trending south or decent for us....I'm not quite sure what you mean HM??? I think....gulp....it keeps coming north at you guys. I understand it is a hostile environment but I like the wave's source. I think confluence will ease a bit more too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think....gulp....it keeps coming north at you guys. I understand it is a hostile environment but I like the wave's source. I think confluence will ease a bit more too. Talk dirty to me...I agree though...these types tend to trend a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.