EastCoast NPZ Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 VB may get the most precip, but it looks like rain to me on the NAM Yeah, I didn't look at the temps, just the precip map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As we all know, the NAM at 3 days is the final word on things. USA_APCPIPER_sfc_084.gif Wait...you mean to tell me it isn't??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling that we are going to fail on all 3 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Usually resolution spreads things out but in this case the differences in resolution introduce the butterfly effect introducing differences in the forecasts that grow with time. I would guess with such a flat wave the coarser resolution has a much harder time resolving the feature giving it a flatter look. Should we expect better results from the 4km NAM then from the higher resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Really, who wants to be the bullseye at 72h NAM? Fronts have lagged a bit overall this winter so this will probably end up being further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling that we are going to fail on all 3 storms. Chill pill please. Give mother a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The thing to pay attention to is the vorticity fields and jet placements, as Wes already pointed out. If you get that dual-ageostrophic divergence aloft (right hand rule kiddies) with a consolidated shot of PVA, it will overcome 1 major problem...the cold, dry air advection between 950-800mb.There is actually a 700mb deformation zone right over DC this run with moistened layers above this dry air throughout the snow growth zone. A more organized s/w would have no problem producing a band on the edge of the QPF. So, because the vorticity shield looks ridiculous, NAM focuses lift down where the 850mb deformation is and moisture, which is S-C VA. So to sum up...who gives a ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wait...you mean to tell me it isn't??? I think he's telling you it is. Red tag. There are really only two chances to fail right now because the midweek storm is a foregone conclusion. First guess: We'll be on the northern edge of decent stuff for Sunday/Monday, and will get a couple inches before rain next weekend. Much farther north and west will do better next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling that we are going to fail on all 3 storms. In all seriousness...now is NOT the time to panic. We've got a long way to go. Monday is still firmly in play. Wednesday, naso much. But Uni is still there...long, long way to go before that one. I'm still optimistic. Hang in there, we will fight our way to the top of the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling that we are going to fail on all 3 storms. at least we have one person here with a cool head as for the RGEM at 48 hrs, it looks a bit amped to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 at least we have one person here with a cool head as for the RGEM at 48 hrs, it looks a bit amped to me GFS is going to destroy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Canada cipher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it's going to be south.. North trend is favored, but this is a different beast. I'm sure it will entice me till Sunday then disappoint me. No doubt. 12z pretty much the same with a little less juice our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS has dca with .4 precip on the means for monday. Only 3 dry members (less than .05) out of the whole bunch. Only one blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS has dca with .4 precip on the means for monday. Only 3 dry members (less than .05) out of the whole bunch. Only one blank. la la lock it in. I'm happy to toss everything but the EPS. Helps when the modeling tool with the best verification is on your side with 72-96 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS has dca with .4 precip on the means for monday. Only 3 dry members (less than .05) out of the whole bunch. Only one blank. Rain or snow for most of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling that we are going to fail on all 3 storms. we might...random 10-12" DCA winters like 74-75 probably had some big storms on current models (if they existed then), but the pattern didnt support them so they never happened....not sure why people are so excited about a BIG all snow event in a meh pattern How many big storms have we gotten in this pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Rain or snow for most of them? About 30 show 1"+ at quick glance. More to the N. I am very distrustful of the wxbell snow output though. I'm happy just seeing the means on precip. We can figure out temps on our own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling that we are going to fail on all 3 storms. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Precip shield looking a little healthier down in AR and TN this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS is further north...just not sure how well light precip will accumulate for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 flurries not really...I've never gotten flurries from 0.1"+ QPF...you know how to read a model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 not really...I've never gotten flurries from 0.1"+ QPF...you know how to read a model? Its a joke. Might as well be flurries. .75 inches doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS is further north...just not sure how well light precip will accumulate for DC... Huffwx will like that run. Will defer to others on the chances of that showing more precip on future runs in our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're 24-48 hours from really knowing. boom/bust potential is obvious. I think this is a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're 24-48 hours from really knowing. boom/bust potential is obvious. I think this is a good run. I'm fine with it...I don't expect the GFS to handle this properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Like the GFS, with Bob. Slowly getting better on the gfs. H3 not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 what hour is it out to..im only at 63.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Huffwx will like that run. Will defer to others on the chances of that showing more precip on future runs in our areas. The 0c line 20 miles south of me.. that's not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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