CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We should probably start a thread that discusses whether or not to make a new thread. zwyts renamed this one. done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Whatever happened to this site? http://www.wxforecaster.com/runtorun/all.html It stopped working a couple of days ago, hopefully it's just a glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Usually resolution spreads things out but in this case the differences in resolution introduce the butterfly effect introducing differences in the forecasts that grow with time. I would guess with such a flat wave the coarser resolution has a much harder time resolving the feature giving it a flatter look. I agree Wes, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Based on prelim panels, I dont think the NAM is going to be as good as 0z...Maybe im wrong, but vort doesnt look as organized and neither is 700 mb RH and precip in TX/OK area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We should probably start a thread that discusses whether or not to make a new thread. Will it involve haiku? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Based on prelim panels, I dont think the NAM is going to be as good as 0z...Maybe im wrong, but vort doesnt look as organized and neither is 700 mb RH and precip in TX/OK area I think it's going to be south.. North trend is favored, but this is a different beast. I'm sure it will entice me till Sunday then disappoint me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We should probably start a thread that discusses whether or not to make a new thread. I disagree, and for those who stand with me, a third thread should be started as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yep at 69 this has definitely sunk south a bit, really interested to see what the Euro says at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ns vorts trend N a lot more so than SS pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, the NAM is significantly south. Ick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yep at 69 this has definitely sunk south a bit, really interested to see what the Euro says at 12z. I suppose its better than screaming north like the EURO..We need to thread the needlee here and thats always tough, but Ill still take south over north for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This one is a real test of the Euro. One set of models, US or Euro, is going to be a TKO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS wins? I will say this though...I'd rather it be south than north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The year of the southward trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Models are everywhere again. Consesnus looked increasingly likely as 12z rolled in yesterday. Now ggem is a hit, euro north, gfs coming n, nam going s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS wins? I will say this though...I'd rather it be south than north of us. GFS will probably be more north of the NAM at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I suppose its better than screaming north like the EURO..We need to thread the needlee here and thats always tough, but Ill still take south over north for now I agree, especially considering all the recent north trends of the actual systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS wins? I will say this though...I'd rather it be south than north of us. yea, no doubt. It's a compact and pretty wet system. Nam is not the model to go with outside of 48 hours. It's the most prone to bounces at d3-4. A 50-100 mile shift on the nam is commonplace past d2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS wins? I will say this though...I'd rather it be south than north of us. whatever model gives us no snow will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS will probably be more north of the NAM at 12Z. beat me to it lol we are not going to have a decent idea on this until 0Z, if not 12Z, Sunday imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It doesn't look like a major shift south the more I look at it, slightly south and just drier in general I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't put too much stock in the NAM till the threat is inside 60. 12z GFS run is big. It looked better at 6z. Watch it go all Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I agree, especially considering all the recent north trends of the actual systems. Yeah, if the Euro takes a few small steps towards the NAM we could score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As we all know, the NAM at 3 days is the final word on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS wins? I will say this though...I'd rather it be south than north of us. Yep. It'll irk the sh*t out of me if VA Beach gets hit again (and we don't), but absolutely nothing good can happen on the south end. As Tue showed (for most), at least sometimes happy surprises occur on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 and don't forget 1) the SREFs, although centered to our south, are not as far south as the NAM and, 2) inevitable north spike within 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM just isn't as amped as it was at 12z. The vort won't even hit the west coast until Saturday. We may nothave a reresolution until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yep. It'll irk the sh*t out of me if VA Beach gets hit again (and we don't), but absolutely nothing good can happen on the south end. As Tue showed (for most), at least sometimes happy surprises occur on the north side. VB may get the most precip, but it looks like rain to me on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The changes at h5 from 6z are pretty minor. Just a bit flatter is all. Hence the shield being less expansive to the north. Going back to just hours 54/60 it's basically identical to 6z. ETA: the only sane thing to do is stop at hr48. I broke one of my rules today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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