North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol.I don't consider two week out "threats" credible. You didn't say "credible", you said the rest of the run sucked. I guess if I see something in fantasyland, even if a fantasy, it's at least not a lost run. Phineas, I thought the 6z GFS was a marked improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS is significantly further se than the op for Monday. Looks good on the means for precip. Temps will remain a wildcard Good news on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 With the Euro a bit north and NAM a bit south I think we are still OK. No one really noticed but the GFS at 06Z was coming around too. 12Z should be good. Wednesday is dead, IMO. I hope it trends to the point we get dry slotted. I'd go for that scenario. Would be nice to get a sneaky few inches Monday, and I like watching snow fall as much as anyone, but if I cant get a chance to get outside, go for a hike and take some shots because its followed immediately by a rainer, I cant get too stoked for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I should probably know this, but what is the EURO Control? Is that the ensemble average? Cause it is way SE of the EURO Op with the Monday event. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Maybe. Not sure the blending thing works in this case. Either the Euro is on to something, or maybe it goes back more in line with the consensus at 12z.. The GFS will probably incrementally get is act together and lose the cold suppressed look and some more north. We need this to say pretty flat and slide in underneath. What the Euro shows is certainly on the table in this pattern. I think you're putting too much faith in the Euro. It hasn't been "on to something" too often this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I should probably know this, but what is the EURO Control? Is that the ensemble average? Cause it is way SE of the EURO Op with the Monday event. Thanks It's basically just one of the 50 ensemble members so it represents one of the many solutions. Using it like op guidance isn't recommended. Gefs has a control member too but it is never spoken of. Honestly, I think the euro control is published for hype purposes only. Accuwesther started it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 9z serf looks like a pretty decent hit fwiw. (2-4"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I should probably know this, but what is the EURO Control? Is that the ensemble average? Cause it is way SE of the EURO Op with the Monday event. Thanks It's the euro model with the same initial conditions as the operational but with lower resolution. The same resolution as the other euro ensemble members. That way they can check to see if the differences are due to resolution differences as well as initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's basically just one of the 50 ensemble members so it represents one of the many solutions. Using it like op guidance isn't recommended. Gefs has a control member too but it is never spoken of. Honestly, I think the euro control is published for hype purposes only. Accuwesther started it. Not true it has a purpose, to check on the impact of lowering the resolution. When it differs from the operational, there are issues with lowering the resolution. It is essentially just the euro with lower resolution with the same initial conditions as the operational euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's the euro model with the same initial conditions as the operational but with lower resolution. The same resolution as the other euro ensemble members. That way they can check to see if the differences are due to resolution differences as well as initial conditions. Thank you! So it's a resolution issue that the snow accumulations are farther SE for Monday than the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not true it has a purpose, to check on the impact of lowering the resolution. When it differs from the operational, there are issues with lowering the resolution. It is essentially just the euro with lower resolution with the same initial conditions as the operational euro. Ah, gotchya. The rest of the members are perturbed. Makes sense. I watch it but don't bring it up much. I always put more stock in the op. Maybe I should give it more credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 9z serf looks like a pretty decent hit fwiw. (2-4"). it too has come southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 it too has come southward I was looking at the SREFS a little and the probability of temps being below 0 C and the 2m temps and they look ok from 6z to 15z on Monday, at 18z they go back above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I was looking at the SREFS a little and the probability of temps being below 0 C and the 2m temps and they look ok from 6z to 15z on Monday, at 18z they go back above freezing. precip has probably ended and sun comes out is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 precip has probably ended and sun comes out is my guess Yep, so overall not a bad run. I'm liking the look of the 6z NAM quite a bit with this system. Lots of precip with 0 850 well south of us. If we could get that nudge north a bit it would be a nice event. I'm hoping that at 12z we can get a little more consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Can I start a thread for the Monday event solo? Its 2.5 days out, and I need to bring this one home for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Can I start a thread for the Monday event solo? Its 2.5 days out, and I need to bring this one home for us. I don't see the need, myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't see the need, myself. I mean neither do I, but you'll regret it when this one just falls apart. Seriously, if anyone had sense they'd let me start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I mean neither do I, but you'll regret it when this one just falls apart. Seriously, if anyone had sense they'd let me start a thread. You can start one, but this thread is meant to cover both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just think its close enough with short lead that watches were possible tomorrow. Usually that type of system deserves its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just think its close enough with short lead that watches were possible tomorrow. Usually that type of system deserves its own thread. wait until after 12z in case it wants to bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 wait until after 12z in case it wants to bustDeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 These events are totally separate in terms of potential and evolution. I see no problem with separate threads. Plus UVVmet84 may just bring some luck for the Monday event. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 These events are totally separate in terms of potential and evolution. I see no problem with separate threads. Plus UVVmet84 may just bring some luck for the Monday event. MDstorm If NAM and GFS are reasonably good with the SREF looking solid, I'll make us a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're only 14 pages into this thread, and the Wednesday storm won't garner any more interest, so I see no need to start a new thread when we can just realign the focus of this thread on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They are two different events. But quite frankly I am wary until the 18z shows something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're only 14 pages into this thread, and the Wednesday storm won't garner any more interest, so I see no need to start a new thread when we can just realign the focus of this thread on Monday. Yeah. If anything just rename this one and then if anyone cares, they can start a new thread for the zr/sleet front end to torchy rainstorm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 How would the strength and timing of the weekend Lake's cutter affect development of the Monday system? From what I am seeing on the NAM, trends in the overall flow seem to be slowing down since the good 0Z run hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We should probably start a thread that discusses whether or not to make a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thank you! So it's a resolution issue that the snow accumulations are farther SE for Monday than the Op? Usually resolution spreads things out but in this case the differences in resolution introduce the butterfly effect introducing differences in the forecasts that grow with time. I would guess with such a flat wave the coarser resolution has a much harder time resolving the feature giving it a flatter look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.