Yorkpa25 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks ok to me snow,acid fireman, and clueless. Wouldn't be so concerned with temps at the moment, and wouldn't model hug one run of the euro. 5-8 inch stripe just above Mason-Dixon Line through NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is just wrong GFS too far south, Euro too far north compromise = all other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 lol 6Z NAM further south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z GFS an improvement on 0z. Precip now from the MD/PA border south for a time. Measurable light snow for central and northern VA for a period. Cent MD/DC close to accumulating snow but the clown maps showing no love there. It's a step in the right direction though, I think. And, unlike the Euro in its last run which was warm and wet apparently, this is cold enough for snow, just not that wet. But more amplified with the precip than it has been in prior GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Like other runs, continued trend is to hope the Monday is something, because the mid-week most certainly is not, absent catching a break with some CAD. Maybe some light frozen and then we all get warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks ok to me snow,acid fireman, and clueless. Wouldn't be so concerned with temps at the moment, and wouldn't model hug one run of the euro. 5-8 inch stripe just above Mason-Dixon Line through NYC The problem is most of us in this subforum (if not 99%) do not live "above the Mason-Dixon line" Verbatim...if the freezing line never comes E of the Blue Ridge it's a bad run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Like other runs, continued trend is to hope the Monday is something, because the mid-week most certainly is not, absent catching a break with some CAD. Maybe some light frozen and then we all get warm and wet. Meh not expecting much out of Monday at this point. The bigger event right on its heels comes a day or so later, and it looks locked in to be warm with moderate to heavy rain. Even if the Monday thing works out, most/all of the current snow pack will be gone, and I cant get overly excited about getting a few inches of snow just to see it obliterated by a torchy rainstorm a day or so later. On to the Unicorn(no idea why y'all callin it that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EURO is warm because the shortwave is too fast, not enough time for cold to come through. Last night's 00z NAM was the best timing we could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Meh not expecting much out of Monday at this point. The bigger event right on its heels comes a day or so later, and it looks locked in to be warm with moderate to heavy rain. Even if the Monday thing works out, most/all of the current snow pack will be gone, and I cant get overly excited about getting a few inches of snow just to see it obliterated by a torchy rainstorm a day or so later. On to the Unicorn(no idea why y'all callin it that) Good lord, any snow is good snow. We have had snowpack for 10 days now. But if we can get a few inches Monday, I don't care if its gone on Thursday. The unicorn is so-named because it was in fantasyland. And properly named because, like a fantasy, it isn't real. Unless you live in Saginaw, Michigan at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z nam is close to a nice hit, central va jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The perils of jumping in too early on these things....models are like those weird couples in the suburbs of Indiana...they like to swing wildly from this far out. It's Friday....Saturday 18z I'm in or out....right now...just hanging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 <JI> models last night were a disaster <JI> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol at Mount Holly in their afd saying GFS is to be IGNORED for the Monday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol at Mount Holly in their afd saying GFS is to be IGNORED for the Monday deal. every model except the Euro has this centered in Central VA/NVA yeah, I'd say it's a little early to say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think a good discussion from LWX this morning: AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKWITH ONE DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN NGTINTO MON. SHORTLY ON ITS HEELS...THE NEXT ARE OF LOPRES MOVES THRUTUE AFTN-WED. THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THEFROPA CONTRIBUTE TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL FCST CONFIDENCE WITH THEEXACT EVOLUTION OF BOTH SYSTEMS. UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE WITH EACHSYSTEM IS ALSO HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST SREF SHOW ARATHER HEFTY SPREAD WITH THE SUN NGT AND MON SYSTEM. THERE ISBETTER SUPPORT FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THEMAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS IN ADDITION TO THE OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS.ADDED RA OR SN TO THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER UNCERTAINTY FROM DCAND POINTS SWD. STILL TOO EARLY TO GIVE DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALLAMOUNTS AND PINPOINT IMPACTS. LOPRES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRACKWEST OF THE AREA TUE NGT AND WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE REGION TOBE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE STRONG WAA IN SLYFLOW....HIPRES INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL YIELD A CAD SETUP. THE WILLMAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR COLDER AIR TO ERODE NEAR THE SFC.THEREFORE...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN...WITH EITHER FREEZINGRAIN OR RAIN POSSIBLE TUE NGT. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL RAINBY WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Monday is tricky. The strength/location of the high, and timing of the shortwave. 0z EURO might be correct. It hasn't lost all its luster. At this time frame NAM is not really worth much consideration, and the GFS appears to be doing what it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I like our chances for Monday. Blend the outputs right now and it's pretty good. Another day and we will probably know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I dont put much(any) stock in the GFS post truncation, but the Uni storm is a warm cutter on 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z gives us some snow on Monday! Rest of the run sucks big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I dont put much(any) stock in the GFS post truncation, but the Uni storm is a warm cutter on 6z run. Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z gives us some snow on Monday! Rest of the run sucks big time. There is actually a snowstorm in the long long range, on 13th/14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I dont put much(any) stock in the GFS post truncation, but the Uni storm is a warm cutter on 6z run. Right now the one thing that seems certain is that the unicorn storm is gonna be a high qpf event...models seem set on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I like our chances for Monday. Blend the outputs right now and it's pretty good. Another day and we will probably know. Maybe. Not sure the blending thing works in this case. Either the Euro is on to something, or maybe it goes back more in line with the consensus at 12z.. The GFS will probably incrementally get is act together and lose the cold suppressed look and some more north. We need this to say pretty flat and slide in underneath. What the Euro shows is certainly on the table in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There is actually a snowstorm in the long long range, on 13th/14th. wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 wrong thread. Agreed, my bad, was responding to incorrect info where it was posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What is up with the CWG website? Everytime I go to look at one of their stories after 5 seconds I get some subscription BS pop-up redirect that takes me away from the CWG section of the site??? I couldn't see the forecast if I wanted to! This is aggrivating enough that I think I am going to cancel my paper delivery!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What is up with the CWG website? Everytime I go to look at one of their stories after 5 seconds I get some subscription BS pop-up redirect that takes me away from the CWG section of the site??? I couldn't see the forecast if I wanted to! This is aggrivating enough that I think I am going to cancel my paper delivery!!! Install adblock and use google chrome, It takes a second and you'll never see an ad or a pop-up again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Agreed, my bad, was responding to incorrect info where it was posted. Lol.I don't consider two week out "threats" credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 With the Euro a bit north and NAM a bit south I think we are still OK. No one really noticed but the GFS at 06Z was coming around too. 12Z should be good. Wednesday is dead, IMO. I hope it trends to the point we get dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS is significantly further se than the op for Monday. Looks good on the means for precip. Temps will remain a wildcard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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