usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Still to be determined where the lead front ends up and the vort could drift. Everything's already pretty close to ideal on the NAM. Kinda early in a lot of cases, but this may be a case where we can lock in a few days out. Ian, it scares me a bit that a lot of the dynamics that result in the storm are from jet streaks. Mesoscale features and we're hoping they are forecast right at 84hrs. If the NAM jet streaks were right, I'd expect the precip to expand northward some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you've been barely on the wrong side of the tracks all year it seems Yeah it's just been one of those seasons down here thus far. Last winter was decent for us though. Hopefully we can pull something out in the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS looks almost identical to the nam so far (don't blame me if I jinx it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 fwiw, surface maps of GFS and NAM at 66 hrs are nearly identical, and I mean nearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS looks almost identical to the nam so far (don't blame me if I jinx it.) lol beat me by a second or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Going to be supressed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS looks almost identical to the nam so far (don't blame me if I jinx it.) It's meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 fwiw, surface maps of GFS and NAM at 66 hrs are nearly identical, and I mean nearly still surpressed. You guys jinxed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks well south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 North of 18z, south of euro/nam Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS doesn't amplify that wave. It has been consistent with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not as bad as 18z, but not 0z NAM by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 North of 18z, south of euro/nam Sent from my iPhone as long as it moved north from 18z, there's plenty of time to shift the inevitable north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 as long as it moved north from 18z, there's plenty of time to shift the inevitable north Yeah, an improvement on 18z. Still no precip up our way though, but closer. And the precip that it did move further north is still very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM is definitely more amped than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The jet that Wes has been talking about did trend favorably however, step in the right direction, if EURO holds I'd expect the GFS to trend even better by 12z, if not 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Trend in the right direction though? better than 6z and 18z but not really 12z...it will figure it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 About as expected with the gfs. Went from nothing to close. Kinda supports central va jackpot look on the EPS. Euro likely to show a good solution. No instant gratification on the gfs but at 3-4 day leads were lookin pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 better than 6z and 18z but not really 12z...it will figure it out... We don't want to see any Philly jackpot runs on the ops right now. Sorry hberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I guess now we see what implications this has on the Wednesday event and the one after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS could be right. The Euro is amp happy and the NAM at 84 is often like the worst snowmap ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good to be just outside the bullseye at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS could be right. The Euro is amp happy and the NAM at 84 is often like the worst snowmap ever. The GFS runs on that wave have pretty consistently not amplified it. They have been as steadfast in keeping it suppressed as the Euro has been in amplifying it. The NAM gives me pause as to the GFS, I guess, because it had that one run that took it into central PA in addition to a suppressed one and the sweet one hitting us. Nam/Euro a good combo. Would be nice if Euro would hold tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wed thing pretty blah on that run, again, not a lot of front end frozen, but some. I would guess our hopes for shovelable snows are Monday and the following weekend, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS runs on that wave have pretty consistently not amplified it. They have been as steadfast in keeping it suppressed as the Euro has been in amplifying it. The NAM gives me pause as to the GFS, I guess, because it had that one run that took it into central PA in addition to a suppressed one and the sweet one hitting us. Nam/Euro a good combo. Would be nice if Euro would hold tonight. I dont remember precisely which run, but I think 1 run of the GFS yesterday had a 1-3 inch snow...but yes, its obviously been the most suppressed today...Until the EURO goes in that direction, Im not too concerned..a few inch paste job would be nice on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's a pin up poster for all you guys.. /catcall NAM84hrs.PNG Did some enhancing, cut a part of the image out. Now all I need is a frame and...some more printer ink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It has to do with jet streaks. When there are two jet streaks in such an alignment it produces strong upper level divergence which ends up producing strong upward motion which is what you want to get a good thump of precipitation. I'll be giving a talk on jet streaks at this years conference.What are the chances such positioning of the jet streaks remain as modeled? Is there also a good chance they seperate in further runs, will the northern one move on to quick to achieve this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wednesday is almost close to t-storm chances but the timing is a bit off. Maybe SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM looks good for Monday, 2-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM looks good for Monday, 2-5". Nice. I will take that as a positive sign for the Euro and call it a night. Back up to glare at the 6z GFS in six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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