usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hey Wes, can you explain why this is important? So it doesn't get sheared out? TYIA It has to do with jet streaks. When there are two jet streaks in such an alignment it produces strong upper level divergence which ends up producing strong upward motion which is what you want to get a good thump of precipitation. I'll be giving a talk on jet streaks at this years conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yoda I was seeing that precip on Sunday morning knocking on the door when I made my comment about it being fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 anybody happen to notice how much qpf had fallen downstream of us at 84 hrs? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Yup it's dumping .4-.5" QPF on the 3 hr WxBell panels in SW VA. Impressive if accurate. IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hey Wes, can you explain why this is important? So it doesn't get sheared out? TYIA Wes might be able to explain it better...but in a nutshell, that kind of jet set-up where we're in between the entrance region of one upper level jet (to the north/northeast) and the exit region of another (to our south), there's enhanced lift. It's a classic signature. EDIT: Ooops, I guess I sent mine before seeing that Wes had indeed responded to that question! But same general idea...sorry to repeat or interrupt there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It has to do with jet streaks. When there are two jet streaks in such an alignment it produces strong upper level divergence which ends up producing strong upward motion which is what you want to get a good thump of precipitation. I'll be giving a talk on jet streaks at this years conference. Wow, yeah I was wondering why H5 was fairly weak and yet the sfc so strong, double coupling H3 jets will do it though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Under is almost assuredly the best bet in any circumstance around here. Far under, in fact. But man, if by some odd planet-aligning miracle DCA gets close to 15" in the next 10-15 days, that would be incredible. No one would say over. Though at this point I think DCA will finish above normal and I wouldn't be surprised if we have some good totals this month. This is a good winter I think... time to accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It has to do with jet streaks. When there are two jet streaks in such an alignment it produces strong upper level divergence which ends up producing strong upward motion which is what you want to get a good thump of precipitation. I'll be giving a talk on jet streaks at this years conference.I was just reading about confluence, divergence, etc ironically enough. Thanks for the info!ETA: thanks zugswag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM is definitely model porn. It would be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It has to do with jet streaks. When there are two jet streaks in such an alignment it produces strong upper level divergence which ends up producing strong upward motion which is what you want to get a good thump of precipitation. I'll be giving a talk on jet streaks at this years conference. Somebody let the cat out of the bag.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Somebody let the cat out of the bag.... lol I was just texting you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ee rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It has to do with jet streaks. When there are two jet streaks in such an alignment it produces strong upper level divergence which ends up producing strong upward motion which is what you want to get a good thump of precipitation. I'll be giving a talk on jet streaks at this years conference. excellent....didnt know there would be a conference this year....that's exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 excellent....didnt know there would be a conference this year....that's exciting like randy was going to ask the forum about a conference then not have a conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 To add to what Wes posted, here is the 700 mb VVs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No one would say over. Though at this point I think DCA will finish above normal and I wouldn't be surprised if we have some good totals this month. This is a good winter I think... time to accept it. Yeah, I know you asked the over/under for 15" in the next couple of weeks as a sort of tongue-in-cheek question! I'm a bit dubious about DCA ending up above normal for this winter, for some reason. If anything, just because it's DCA. They're at what, 7.5" so far or something? We'd need basically over 8" from now on to top the normal of ~15". Now, looking at things in the next couple of weeks, if it works out right...and if we can manage something later in the season too, then yeah, DCA should finally top their average. IAD and BWI, on the other hand, clearly are in line to better their seasonal norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ee rule And its solid snow from both of them to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nam is sleety down my way. Wish we had hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And its solid snow from both of them to... surface temp not an issue at DCA on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Somebody let the cat out of the bag.... Did I blow it by telling everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nam is sleety down my way. Wish we had hour 90. you've been barely on the wrong side of the tracks all year it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Did I blow it by telling everyone? of course not....go back to bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's a pin up poster for all you guys.. /catcall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 and lest we forget the SREFs support the NAM, though they are a hair slower in bringing the storm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's a pin up poster for all you guys.. /catcall NAM84hrs.PNG That's funny. Where do you insert the dollar bills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And its solid snow from both of them to... Still to be determined where the lead front ends up and the vort could drift. Everything's already pretty close to ideal on the NAM. Kinda early in a lot of cases, but this may be a case where we can lock in a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you've been barely on the wrong side of the tracks all year it seems Draping cold front, I'd say we'd get SOME accums down here if it played out as modeled. Faster cold front, good news-- slower cold front, bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Still to be determined where the lead front ends up and the vort could drift. Everything's already pretty close to ideal on the NAM. Kinda early in a lot of cases, but this may be a case where we can lock in a few days out. I definitely like that its a southern wave over a ns vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's a pin up poster for all you guys.. /catcall NAM84hrs.PNG Winchester-Philly superband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Winchester-Philly superband. Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I definitely like that its a southern wave over a ns vort. Yeah, but they can also end up warmer in the end quite often. If you look at MOS now it doesn't give you huge confidence in the sfc although it's impacted by the GFS looking like crap. If we can get it in early and get rates.. we've been down that road before tho hah. Maybe we're a snowtown again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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