mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll take the NAM at 84 Art/Alex http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I am glad to hear that wet stuff will fall out of the sky some time in the next 10 weeks. A parade of perfect track coastals should be setting up about early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is the NAM a feasible best case scenario apart from being to wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM would be a HUGE hit, temps plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 84hr NAM'd.. Wow. Call me back in 72hrs there NAM, then we'll talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow...NAM'd. Oh 84h NAM, why do you tease us so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So the NAM joins the Euro camp...GFS next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM would probably be even more than the EURO hit us with. WTH is going on here? Are we not seeing the forest for the trees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, NAM is probably about best case.. but I think that's a legit possibility with this one. We don't want it too far north though.. it could slip. Good to have some stuff look crappy (gfs cough cough.. tho it's gonna come aboard, maybe tonight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The NAM looks a lot like today's euro. It will keep me up for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, NAM is probably about best case.. but I think that's a legit possibility with this one. We don't want it too far north though.. it could slip. Good to have some stuff look crappy (gfs cough cough.. tho it's gonna come aboard, maybe tonight). I think it probably will come aboard. It's gotta a history of suppressing southern waves a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Now that we have our eyes in this Monday event, I'm guessing that we've given up on the Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Models will probably have a tough time with this one, because it depends how much separation we get between the cold front and the wave associated with this. The 18z NAM, for example, didn't show much, so the cold air didn't get a chance to come thru first, thus you get a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it probably will come aboard. It's gotta a history of suppressing southern waves a little too much. Over or under on 15"+ in the course of the next two weeks for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow...NAM'd. Oh 84h NAM, why do you tease us so? That's its modus operandi, to tease us! But joking aside, it sure looks better than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Now that we have our eyes in this Monday event, I'm guessing that we've given up on the Wednesday storm. Considering this storm falls before Wednesday not sure what you mean, but the Wednesday storm just doesn't have much going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Now that we have our eyes in this Monday event, I'm guessing that we've given up on the Wednesday storm. I'd gladly give up the Wednesday storm for the Unicorn ("I'd gladly pay you on Tuesday for a hamburger today!"), as I think most people would. The Monday potential would be a nice extra. This assumes, of course, that the Unicorn storm the following weekend actually pans out right for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's one of the reasons the NAM ends up looking so impressive. Note the two jet streaks (upper level wind maxima). We're in between them. That's a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 When does the inevitable north/warmer trend begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Over or under on 15"+ in the course of the next two weeks for DC. Under is almost assuredly the best bet in any circumstance around here. Far under, in fact. But man, if by some odd planet-aligning miracle DCA gets close to 15" in the next 10-15 days, that would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I know the 84 hour nam is just garbage, but when you give it support from the Euro, it definitely looks like we are in the ballgame for several inches of snow on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If MOnday happens, screw Wednesday's mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 When does the inevitable north/warmer trend begin? It dosent. No model has us warm monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It dosent. No model has us warm monday Dangerous position to take...Did you forget where we live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's one of the reasons the NAM ends up looking so impressive. Note the two jet streaks (upper level wind maxima). We're in between them. That's a good place to be. ] Hey Wes, can you explain why this is important? So it doesn't get sheared out? TYIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 When does the inevitable north/warmer trend begin? 6z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It dosent. No model has us warm monday 18z Nam did at 84. Then again, feels stupid typing that as it was the 18z Nam at 84 hours. Then the GFS came in about 200 miles further south and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z tomorrow 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I haven't seen a 700mb RH map like that since....since....yeah, 2010 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 anybody happen to notice how much qpf had fallen downstream of us at 84 hrs? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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