Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For anyone who want to discuss the system. Looks like a light overrunning event for the northern folks. Could make some folks happy who have not seen much snow in the past couple weeks. The 00z Euro looks to be on the northern side of guidance. 12z NAM today advertises at least a few inches from around the Lakes Region on N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Should make for some solid skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z NAM soundings continue to show around 0.35" at BTV and 0.48" at MPV in an all-snow sounding. GFS has been right on the edge for us up here, although on the soundings are still leaning for mostly snow at BTV, with some mixing down SE at MPV. The bulk of the precip looks to be the over-running at the beginning, with better jet dynamics over the area, too...then as it warms up the precip shifts north of the area. Could be something that puts down 1-3" in the valleys and 2-4" mountains followed by some drizzle as it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z NAM soundings continue to show around 0.35" at BTV and 0.48" at MPV in an all-snow sounding. GFS has been right on the edge for us up here, although on the soundings are still leaning for mostly snow at BTV, with some mixing down SE at MPV. The bulk of the precip looks to be the over-running at the beginning, with better jet dynamics over the area, too...then as it warms up the precip shifts north of the area. Could be something that puts down 1-3" in the valleys and 2-4" mountains followed by some drizzle as it warms up. As long as we can manage a net gain, I'm fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro is very meh with this even for N VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is very meh with this even for N VT. We toss. Yeah, I'm just ignoring it, haha 18z GFS and NAM continue to keep BTV mostly snow until after the initial burst of WAA has moved through, then ends as some drizzle or scattered showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We toss. Yeah, I'm just ignoring it, haha 18z GFS and NAM continue to keep BTV mostly snow until after the initial burst of WAA has moved through, then ends as some drizzle or scattered showers. The Euro is by itself. It's either going to look really good or really bad. I like hi-res modeling for this personally. They usually handle WAA/overunning fairly well inside ~60 hours. Kind of a weenie combo, but the RPM and the NAM agree that N. VT, N. NH, and interior western ME have the best forcing, both delivering a general 3-6" with weenie pockets up to 8". I think 2-4" is a good place to start for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euro is by itself. It's either going to look really good or really bad. I like hi-res modeling for this personally. They usually handle WAA/overunning fairly well inside ~60 hours. Kind of a weenie combo, but the RPM and the NAM agree that N. VT, N. NH, and interior western ME have the best forcing, both delivering a general 3-6" with weenie pockets up to 8". I think 2-4" is a good place to start for NNE. yep great observation. Will be an interesting test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yep great observation. Will be an interesting test. Yeah can't find anything quite as warm as the ECM, or quite as dry with the over-running. I don't like going bullish in these situations, but am leaning towards a colder version and slightly south track of the ECM. Now watch this be the one system it schools everyone in. The UKMET also looked further south than the ECM and GGEM (which is probably the closest to the Euro), and had some good RH over-running NNE. Tracks the low right over BTV instead of Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think 2-4" is a good place to start for NNE. It seems like the BTV NWS point forecasts agree with your thoughts – that’s exactly what I’m seeing when I look at the forecasts in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM caves north at 00Z. Let's see if the GFS follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Congrats Vim Toot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 BTV's forecast map... I still like 2-4" up here, maybe 1-3". GFS and UKMET never get us out of a snow profile it appears, while NAM does some light snow to dryslot as it warms up. Its a tough call because if there's a warm layer somewhere other than H85 it could be more sleety or mixed. The forecast offices seem to be in decent agreement between each other...you can tell by the color scheme that GYX has 3"+ just north of Plymouth (or where "New Hampshire" is spelled on the map, haha), with more like 4-6" in N.NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 BTV's forecast map... I still like 2-4" up here, maybe 1-3". GFS and UKMET never get us out of a snow profile it appears, while NAM does some light snow to dryslot as it warms up. Its a tough call because if there's a warm layer somewhere other than H85 it could be more sleety or mixed. The forecast offices seem to be in decent agreement between each other...you can tell by the color scheme that GYX has 3"+ just north of Plymouth (or where "New Hampshire" is spelled on the map, haha), with more like 4-6" in N.NH. photo1.JPG That map's a downer for the lower Champlain Valley. Mixing with or changing to rain before turning back over to snow . Good thing the bulk of the precip stays north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like the 12z ECM caved south and came more in line with other guidance. Its going to be a nail biter though as we pretty much ride the H85 freezing line... BTV has issued an Advisory for here for 4-6" of snow though. Saturday: Partly sunny with a slight chance of snow in the morning...then cloudy with snow or rain likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds...becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.Saturday Night: Snow. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like the 12z ECM caved south and came more in line with other guidance. Its going to be a nail biter though as we pretty much ride the H85 freezing line... BTV has issued an Advisory for here for 4-6" of snow though. That’s cool PF, I’d actually say that the ECMWF is even farther south now than the latest GFS. We’re right on the edge of the advisory here at the north end of Washington County, but it should be fun to see how the line is walked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That’s cool PF, I’d actually say that the ECMWF is even farther south now than the latest GFS. We’re right on the edge of the advisory here at the north end of Washington County, but it should be fun to see how the line is walked. Yeah you are essentially in the Advisory, haha. They gotta break it out somehow, and to be honest the advisory is probably more for the northern half of Lamoille County as you can see by the accum map. The meso-models are ramping up the QPF to even near 0.5" over the mountains, so there could be some dense snowfall if it breaks right. It may be more elevation dependent in this area than anything as it doesn't really look like an elevated warm layer, more of regular moist adiabatic lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BTV4 model delivers a 1.63" jackpot of QPF to Mount Mansfield over the next 48 hours, including upslope on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BTV4 model delivers a 1.63" jackpot of QPF to Mount Mansfield over the next 48 hours, including upslope on Sunday... Well, considering it should be enjoyed since it’s the only 1.63” of liquid equivalent we’ve got, etc., etc., it’ll have to do. Anyway, looking through the 72-hour accumulated Computer Snowfall Output at WinterCast for the GFS and NAM, the Jay Peak area continually comes up with a nice shot of snow. Checking out the past couple of runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM on the WunderMap®, they really seem to be honing in on a consensus, with the ECMWF looking the stingiest on precipitation. Those past couple of runs of the NAM certainly highlight the northern tier/NEK. The only notable change I see in the BTV advisories map is that a Winter Weather Advisory is up for Coos County across the border in New Hampshire, which makes sense looking at what those models are saying. I’ve also pasted BTV’s latest storm total snowfall map below, which is actually tapered back just a bit from the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yay, we've gone from 1"-2" to <1"! I'm so excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks good for the mountains and county up here, The county has done well over the last 2 weeks with 3 decent events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Cold front...what is "the county"? I've heard you and Tamarack use that...Is it Maine speak for country (countryside)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Aroostook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Cold front...what is "the county"? I've heard you and Tamarack use that...Is it Maine speak for country (countryside)? Anywhere north of Milinocket is considered the county area But its Aroostook mainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ahhh thanks. I figured something like that but then there's several counties up there and wasn't sure, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ahhh thanks. I figured something like that but then there's several counties up there and wasn't sure, haha. Usually determined where the potatoes start and stop.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Few snow flakes in the air 36/23 4:20pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wintry mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.5" of paste at 5:30...nothing overly heavy so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light snow just started in bartlett nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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