+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The only thing missing to a PDII analog is a East based -NAO , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is the setup, massive 50/50, SW trough, confluence, screams overrunning You actually want that small area of ridging west of James Bay so any LP will run closer to the coast instead of going west after the high moves off the coast. I would watch how models handle that small area the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GGEM sends the low to Dodge City LOL with WAA snows already reaching the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is the setup, massive 50/50, SW trough, confluence, screams overrunning Shift those negatives over SE Canada from the NW Atlantic Ocean and that'll do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I must say that block over Alaska is spectacular, feel really good about this storm just from that alone. It's forcing the PV to be depressed over eastern Canada, but it's also very reassuring to have a block east of that so the PV doesn't have an escape route, as it may with this upcoming system on 2/4. The EPO will make for a cold start to the system, but the cold looks now like it gets scoured out fairly quickly especially mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Low cuts to Detroit, massive over running, ZR a problem again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GGEM sends the low to Dodge City LOL with WAA snows already reaching the Delmarva. At least the GGEM is equally as bad as the GFS at those ranges. The only model I am interested in at this point is the euro ensembles until we pull within 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Comical solution, the primary dies in Canada and transfers to a secondary over the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Comical solution, the primary dies in Canada and transfers to a secondary over the Delmarva. What the hell? How would that happen and still transfer to delmarva? Guess the GFS just poo'd the bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sub 988mb low ends up off Cape Cod as we flip back to snow. The primary is near Toronto. 30+ hours straight of precip, mainly over running. Easily 2-3" of mainly rain with some ZR to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What the hell? How would that happen and still transfer to delmarva? Guess the GFS just poo'd the bed The GGEM is ridiculous and should be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sub 988mb low ends up off Cape Cod as we flip back to snow. The primary is near Toronto. 30+ hours straight over precip, mainly over running. Easily 2-3" of mainly rain with some ZR to start. That is a very suspect solution to say the least. Like bluewave said im siding with the EURO and its ensembles, i think overall this kind of storm is in euro court. It seems to do noticably better/ consistent with these systems. The GFS was just a bogus run in my honest opinion and the euro hasnt been good at all this year haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 -pna patterns suck until late march/early april (see April 1982)....with the wavelength shorter this time of year,unless you have an established -nao its VERY difficult to stop the slp's from going west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What the hell? How would that happen and still transfer to delmarva? Guess the GFS just poo'd the bed it DOESNT transfer to he Delmarva...not sure what he is looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GGEM is ridiculous and should be ignored. GGEM is a "better" model inside 96 hours anything further it is suspect to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM is a "better" model inside 96 hours anything further it is suspect to say the least All the models have sucked this winter. One storm at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 it DOESNT transfer to he Delmarva...not sure what he is looking at You don't see the notch in the isobars over the Delmarva there? My paid maps have more details, anyway look at the next hour and see the resulting coastal off of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 sadly, the monday event is our best shot. I am fairy confident Weds is dead....and saturday is closing quick. JMHO fat lady is exercising her vocal cords on all three potentials.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 All the models have sucked this winter. One storm at a time. That goes without saying i was stating an opinion man, your right though overall not very good performances from our models this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That goes without saying i was stating an opinion man, your right though overall not very good performances from our models this winter Don't we say that every winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You don't see the notch in the isobars over the Delmarva there? My paid maps have more details, anyway look at the next hour and see the resulting coastal off of Cape Cod. Weatherbell> Stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 All the models have sucked this winter. One storm at a time. EDIT - UNLESS they show a snowy scenario....you guys are so predictable. Look at the trough orientations.....look at the players on the field....i've said this for weeks now - this pattern was good for cold (we lucked out with a snow event), the new pattern is good for, well, the apps, greens, whites and berkshires....i hate to be negative nille but its not like we have a -nao/+pna and im just trolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That is a very suspect solution to say the least. Like bluewave said im siding with the EURO and its ensembles, i think overall this kind of storm is in euro court. It seems to do noticably better/ consistent with these systems. The GFS was just a bogus run in my honest opinion and the euro hasnt been good at all this year haha We need just enough ridging SW of James Bay to prevent a cut after the big high exits the coast. Otherwise, an under 120 westward trend would mean a front end thump of snow before going over to rain at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't we say that every winter ? Eh yea kinda but this year in particular none has made a push to show its accuracy, overall been a bad season for forecasting models. A collective bed wetting performance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEFS are much, much better than the OP. Mean precip stretches from Dallas to Boston. Plenty cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEFS are much, much better than the OP. Mean precip stretches from Dallas to Boston. Plenty cold too. Patience is key here in this setup. Ace although he's being very vocal and condescending does have some points as to how this can go wrong along with bluewave. The key is going to be that wednesday storm acting as 50/50 to help lock that high in key position and getting coastal transfer at the right time and location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think even if things trend warmer later on, many could at least get 4+ on the front end thump since the baroclinic zone starts out in the Carolinas. I`m still liking Monday . Im not sure I even want to take a serious look at this unless its thru the lense of the ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think even if things trend warmer later on, many could at least get 4+ on the front end thump since the baroclinic zone starts out in the Carolinas. Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_168.gif You are just describing the model output if it verifies correct ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I`m still liking Monday . Im not sure I even want to take a serious look at this unless its thru the lense of the ensembles . The EURO ensembles have been pretty dead set on this threat so that is a good sign. Looking forward to seeing what the euro and its ensembles show at 12z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euro backing off on the high strength this run leaves us with the ugly 500 mb pattern that the last few runs were trying to paper over. It's a good thing we did so well with the snow in December and January if the ensembles follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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