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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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This is the setup, massive 50/50, SW trough, confluence, screams overrunning gfs_z500a_namer_63.png

 

You actually want that small area of ridging west of  James Bay so any LP will run closer to the coast instead

of going west after the high moves off the coast. I would watch how models handle that small area the 

next week.

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I must say that block over Alaska is spectacular, feel really good about this storm just from that alone. 

It's forcing the PV to be depressed over eastern Canada, but it's also very reassuring to have a block east of that so the PV doesn't have an escape route, as it may with this upcoming system on 2/4. The EPO will make for a cold start to the system, but the cold looks now like it gets scoured out fairly quickly especially mid levels.

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The 12z GGEM sends the low to Dodge City LOL with WAA snows already reaching the Delmarva. 

 

At least the GGEM is equally as bad as the GFS at those ranges. The only model I am interested in at

this point is the euro ensembles until we pull within 120 hrs.

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Sub 988mb low ends up off Cape Cod as we flip back to snow. The primary is near Toronto. 30+ hours straight over precip, mainly over running. Easily 2-3" of mainly rain with some ZR to start.

That is a very suspect solution to say the least. Like bluewave said im siding with the EURO and its ensembles, i think overall this kind of storm is in euro court. It seems to do noticably better/ consistent with these systems. The GFS was just a bogus run in my honest opinion and the euro hasnt been good at all this year haha

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All the models have sucked this winter. One storm at a time.

EDIT - UNLESS they show a snowy scenario....you guys are so predictable.

 

Look at the trough orientations.....look at the players on the field....i've said this for weeks now - this pattern was good for cold (we lucked out with a snow event), the new pattern is good for, well, the apps, greens, whites and berkshires....i hate to be negative nille but its not like we have a -nao/+pna and im just trolling...

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That is a very suspect solution to say the least. Like bluewave said im siding with the EURO and its ensembles, i think overall this kind of storm is in euro court. It seems to do noticably better/ consistent with these systems. The GFS was just a bogus run in my honest opinion and the euro hasnt been good at all this year haha

 

We need just enough ridging SW of James Bay to prevent a cut after the big high exits the coast. 

Otherwise, an under 120 westward trend would mean a front end thump of snow before

going over to rain at some point.

 

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12z GEFS are much, much better than the OP.

Mean precip stretches from Dallas to Boston. Plenty cold too.

Patience is key here in this setup. Ace although he's being very vocal and condescending does have some points as to how this can go wrong along with bluewave. The key is going to be that wednesday storm acting as 50/50 to help lock that high in key position and getting coastal transfer at the right time and location

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I think even if things trend warmer later on, many could at least get 4+ on the front end thump since

the baroclinic zone starts out in the Carolinas.

I`m still liking Monday . Im  not sure I even want to take a serious look at this unless its thru the lense of the ensembles .

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I`m still liking Monday . Im not sure I even want to take a serious look at this unless its thru the lense of the ensembles .

The EURO ensembles have been pretty dead set on this threat so that is a good sign. Looking forward to seeing what the euro and its ensembles show at 12z as well

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The Euro backing off on the high strength this run leaves us with the ugly 500 mb pattern

that the last few runs were trying to paper over. It's a good thing we did so well with the

snow in December and January if the ensembles follow suit.

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