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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Well thank you captain obvious your input is greatly appreciated what would we do without you :P;). You gotta admit though this threat has been pretty consistent and just have to hope that 50/50 from the wednesday storm and higher hieghts towards greenland materializes to help get this storm up the coast and to not be suppressed. I even as an amatuer doubts this would cut but it is an option. IMO either going to miss south or hits us a la a PDII redux

Actually this threat has been a lot less consistent than the one that will precede it. This setup isn't too dissimilar from the middle of next week either. The reason why this holds more weight is because 1) You might have some better blocking to work with should the 5th storm intensify enough and move to the 50/50 position and 2) Because the high pressure involved is significantly stronger. A cutter is very possible without blocking. A +NAO would favor a cutter.

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Actually this threat has been a lot less consistent than the one that will precede it. This setup isn't too dissimilar from the middle of next week either. The reason why this holds more weight is because 1) You might have some better blocking to work with should the 5th storm intensify enough and move to the 50/50 position and 2) Because the high pressure involved is significantly stronger. A cutter is very possible without blocking. A +NAO would favor a cutter.

All very good points. One guarantee is the next 7 days there will be ALOT of people sadly living and dying by each model run in a winter where none of them have really performed all that well
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I will be dissapointed certainly but i know big ones happen rarely so its expected. Im not going be bickering or posting my feeling openly thats for sure

 

If the winter was over today most spots would still be ahead of the game in the snowfall dept. NYC has already

had the 8th snowiest January and has passed the break even mark with 28.3"

 

 

36.0    201127.4    192526.1    199624.5    192323.6    193520.5    187720.3    197819.7....201418.4    190517.5    1882       17.3    2004 & 187916.7    196116.0    1893
 
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Tasty yanks! Stop the teasing :P

Im excited for this but not near a cliff though, lots of time for change still

 

The whole forecast comes down to the high holding in long enough since it would be a cutter without it. 

You could still get a decent front end thump before changeover even if the high exits too fast

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Ask earthlight, Isotherm, jm, snowgoose, even the clueless weenie, how the hell does this cut with a 1040mb high over us and it slow to retreat while the trough buckles SW of us it screams PDII like solution 

 

It can't be a PDII solution with an elongated vort. If it were more rounded and there was blocking over SE Canada, then there will be some similarities. 

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Ask earthlight, Isotherm, jm, snowgoose, even the clueless weenie, how the hell does this cut with a 1040mb high over us and it slow to retreat while the trough buckles SW of us it screams PDII like solution 

how do you know the 1040 high is going to be in the position the model is showing and at that strength ? Still over 200 hours away the models are far from any type of specific solution - only thing reasonably certain is there will be a storm here over the 8 -9 weekend

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_66.png

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A surface high is not a block. A storm can push it out of the way easily. We need a faster ejection while confluence is still good. GFS was late.

Yes, a deep-layer trough can easily erode a surface high pressure cell. I would think, though, that the troughiness east of Newfoundland would serve as somewhat of a block and kind of slow up eastward translation of the confluent region, more than what was depicted verbatim. Could be completely wrong.

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how do you know the 1040 high is going to be in the position the model is showing and at that strength ? Still over 200 hours away the models are far from any type of specific solution - only thing reasonably certain is there will be a storm here over the 8 -9 weekend

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_66.png

0z Euro shows a HP dome over us too, coast to coast cold, Dec 1983 like (less cold I am taking about the 500mb pattern)

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We're very reliant on the system on the 5th moving into the 50/50 position and creating a block to help the high lock in place. Without that, I guess the GFS is a possibility.

We want that coastal on the 5th to wind up so it can act like a psuedo 50/50 block. currently it does just that so im too worried yet

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This is the setup, massive 50/50, SW trough, confluence, screams overrunning gfs_z500a_namer_63.png

The trough in the west looks very amplified, and the confluence northeast of us can easily move out by the time it gets here without the NAO on our side, so a cutter is very possible with that storm too. Like I said last night, we can still go through these next systems as a series of cutters or whiffs where we don't get very much snow, much like December. I think we can at least get one of these to work out for everyone though.

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I must say that block over Alaska is spectacular, feel really good about this storm just from that alone. 

 

We've seen times before where the setup looks great and everything comes to together but we're missing one component and everything goes to cr*p. Think of how many awesome setups we get in the summer for a severe weather event and how often it doesn't come to fruition.

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