Blizzardo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lets see what todays runs show us. One day at a time. Im not feeling good about this and am afraid that it is going to fade to black as time goes on. However, I am riding the overunning into a coastal bus till we crash and burn ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well thank you captain obvious your input is greatly appreciated what would we do without you . You gotta admit though this threat has been pretty consistent and just have to hope that 50/50 from the wednesday storm and higher hieghts towards greenland materializes to help get this storm up the coast and to not be suppressed. I even as an amatuer doubts this would cut but it is an option. IMO either going to miss south or hits us a la a PDII redux Actually this threat has been a lot less consistent than the one that will precede it. This setup isn't too dissimilar from the middle of next week either. The reason why this holds more weight is because 1) You might have some better blocking to work with should the 5th storm intensify enough and move to the 50/50 position and 2) Because the high pressure involved is significantly stronger. A cutter is very possible without blocking. A +NAO would favor a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Actually this threat has been a lot less consistent than the one that will precede it. This setup isn't too dissimilar from the middle of next week either. The reason why this holds more weight is because 1) You might have some better blocking to work with should the 5th storm intensify enough and move to the 50/50 position and 2) Because the high pressure involved is significantly stronger. A cutter is very possible without blocking. A +NAO would favor a cutter.All very good points. One guarantee is the next 7 days there will be ALOT of people sadly living and dying by each model run in a winter where none of them have really performed all that well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 And your gonna be the most disgruntled when it goes POOF Mr. Excitement..hahahaha I will be dissapointed certainly but i know big ones happen rarely so its expected. Im not going be bickering or posting my feeling openly thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I will be dissapointed certainly but i know big ones happen rarely so its expected. Im not going be bickering or posting my feeling openly thats for sure If the winter was over today most spots would still be ahead of the game in the snowfall dept. NYC has already had the 8th snowiest January and has passed the break even mark with 28.3" 36.0 201127.4 192526.1 199624.5 192323.6 193520.5 187720.3 197819.7....201418.4 190517.5 1882 17.3 2004 & 187916.7 196116.0 1893 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 1044mb+ high pressure centered over the central plains with strong confluent flow all along the northern tier, now that's one hell of a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 1044mb+ high pressure centered over the central plains with strong confluent flow all along the northern tier, now that's one hell of a setup.Tasty yanks! Stop the teasing Im excited for this but not near a cliff though, lots of time for change still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tasty yanks! Stop the teasing Im excited for this but not near a cliff though, lots of time for change still The whole forecast comes down to the high holding in long enough since it would be a cutter without it. You could still get a decent front end thump before changeover even if the high exits too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sub -10C at 850mb over our area, I dare it tries to cut, look at 50/50 feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is going to try and cut but everything is so much more favorable than it is for the mid-week storm. Looks like an epic SWFE incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 On early Saturday morning you have a piece of the PV up in Canada rotating south which is helping to reinforce the subsidence over southern Canada. Just beautiful. Snow on the doorstep hour 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HP is still to the west while low attempts to do a cutter, it will have to be shunted further S+E, High is 1041mb, this means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And yet somehow this still cuts to Ohio. I'm not buying it for even a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Holds back energy too long and amps to much in the SW. Quicker ejection would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And yet somehow this still cuts to Ohio. I'm not buying it for even a second. Ask earthlight, Isotherm, jm, snowgoose, even the clueless weenie, how the hell does this cut with a 1040mb high over us and it slow to retreat while the trough buckles SW of us it screams PDII like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 And yet somehow this still cuts to Ohio. I'm not buying it for even a second.Wow that makes ZERO sense. It just went dumb pretty much. A 1041 high isnt going to just give way like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 1044mb high gets punted east like a camera man getting run over by a line backer. Zero chance of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ask earthlight, Isotherm, jm, snowgoose, even the clueless weenie, how the hell does this cut with a 1040mb high over us and it slow to retreat while the trough buckles SW of us it screams PDII like solution It can't be a PDII solution with an elongated vort. If it were more rounded and there was blocking over SE Canada, then there will be some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 A surface high is not a block. A storm can push it out of the way easily. We need a faster ejection while confluence is still good. GFS was late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The gfs loves to cut all these systems despite mass resistance, which is why the midweek storm is still very sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ask earthlight, Isotherm, jm, snowgoose, even the clueless weenie, how the hell does this cut with a 1040mb high over us and it slow to retreat while the trough buckles SW of us it screams PDII like solution how do you know the 1040 high is going to be in the position the model is showing and at that strength ? Still over 200 hours away the models are far from any type of specific solution - only thing reasonably certain is there will be a storm here over the 8 -9 weekend http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_66.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 A surface high is not a block. A storm can push it out of the way easily. We need a faster ejection while confluence is still good. GFS was late. Yes, a deep-layer trough can easily erode a surface high pressure cell. I would think, though, that the troughiness east of Newfoundland would serve as somewhat of a block and kind of slow up eastward translation of the confluent region, more than what was depicted verbatim. Could be completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 how do you know the 1040 high is going to be in the position the model is showing and at that strength ? Still over 200 hours away the models are far from any type of specific solution - only thing reasonably certain is there will be a storm here over the 8 -9 weekend http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_66.png 0z Euro shows a HP dome over us too, coast to coast cold, Dec 1983 like (less cold I am taking about the 500mb pattern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're very reliant on the system on the 5th moving into the 50/50 position and creating a block to help the high lock in place. Without that, I guess the GFS is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 A surface high is not a block. A storm can push it out of the way easily. We need a faster ejection while confluence is still good. GFS was late. this is true, IMO. I have seen storms swing in temps 20-30 degrees in a matter of 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is the setup, massive 50/50, SW trough, confluence, screams overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're very reliant on the system on the 5th moving into the 50/50 position and creating a block to help the high lock in place. Without that, I guess the GFS is a possibility. We want that coastal on the 5th to wind up so it can act like a psuedo 50/50 block. currently it does just that so im too worried yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is the setup, massive 50/50, SW trough, confluence, screams overrunning The trough in the west looks very amplified, and the confluence northeast of us can easily move out by the time it gets here without the NAO on our side, so a cutter is very possible with that storm too. Like I said last night, we can still go through these next systems as a series of cutters or whiffs where we don't get very much snow, much like December. I think we can at least get one of these to work out for everyone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I must say that block over Alaska is spectacular, feel really good about this storm just from that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I must say that block over Alaska is spectacular, feel really good about this storm just from that alone. We've seen times before where the setup looks great and everything comes to together but we're missing one component and everything goes to cr*p. Think of how many awesome setups we get in the summer for a severe weather event and how often it doesn't come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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