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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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there is NO 50/50 on the maps you posted. 50/50 lows remain in that position leading up to the storm. They create a confluent flow north of us that locks in cold air. hP cells remain in place and cant slide east. The 50/50 is able to anchor itself in position because of high latitude blocking to its NE (-NAO).....that is why only 5 KU storms through 2000 had a +nao and 4 of those tainted here...for our latitude a -NAO is more important than anything else...it is dumb luck to get a snow storm in a +nao

Ace , we just  had a storm go through here 2 weeks ago where KNYC got 11 inches and 15 - 18 in Monmouth County with a POS NAO . Here`s how , you had a NEG WPO , that  forced the heights to connect over the top drilling low level cold air into the CONUS  You had NEG EPO ,  which helped pump the W ridge .  ( yes now its now  NEG , so all you did was potentially open a fire hose into the US , but non of this air is Pacific . You and I had this discussion 2 weeks ago and it turned out ok .  If the arctic boundary is far enough S and that's what the models are seeing . then the PV should offer enough confluence to keep this to the BM .

Anything can cut , but its wanted to snow here this year , We just got 2 inches of Snow  on S wind last weekend .  Closing in on 40 and its  still Jan  Sometimes it happens

Maybe you`re right this time  but I think Sat is DC to Boston . its ok we disagree but that cool.

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The ESLR site. Don't have the link, I'm mobile. I believe ewall

Does as well

 

ewall has a historical page but all you can see are maps....i want to input what the pna numbers are, nao numbers and epo numbers to see what other time frames match,.....i would bet that there would be VERY few snowy analogs for anyone south of the CT/MA border

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Ace , we just had a storm go through here 2 weeks ago where KNYC got 11 inches and 15 - 18 in Monmouth County with a POS NAO . Here`s how , you had a NEG WPO , that forced the heights to connect over the top drilling low level cold air into the CONUS You had NEG EPO , which helped pump the W ridge . ( yes now its now NEG , so all you did was potentially open a fire hose into the US , but non of this air is Pacific . You and I had this discussion 2 weeks ago and it turned out ok . If the arctic boundary is far enough S and that's what the models are seeing . then the PV should offer enough confluence to keep this to the BM .

Anything can cut , but its wanted to snow here this year , We just got 2 inches of Snow on S wind last weekend . Closing in on 40 and its still Jan Sometimes it happens

Maybe you`re right this time but I think Sat is DC to Boston . its ok we disagree but that cool.

The problem

Is the - PNA, with the relaxed PV with a lobe retrograding west into Canada allow the shortwave in question to amplify enough to raise heights on the east coast and cut. Plain and simple.

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Ace , we just  had a storm go through here 2 weeks ago where KNYC got 11 inches and 15 - 18 in Monmouth County with a POS NAO . Here`s how , you had a NEG WPO , that  forced the heights to connect over the top drilling low level cold air into the CONUS  You had NEG EPO ,  which helped pump the W ridge .  ( yes now its now  NEG , so all you did was potentially open a fire hose into the US , but non of this air is Pacific . You and I had this discussion 2 weeks ago and it turned out ok .  If the arctic boundary is far enough S and that's what the models are seeing . then the PV should offer enough confluence to keep this to the BM .

Anything can cut , but its wanted to snow here this year , We just got 2 inches of Snow  on S wind last weekend .  Closing in on 40 and its  still Jan  Sometimes it happens

Maybe you`re right this time  but I think Sat is DC to Boston . its ok we disagree but that cool.

you are oversimplifying the situation. 2 week ago we got lucky with a perfectly timed davis straight block

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The problem

Is the - PNA, with the relaxed PV with a lobe retrograding west into Canada allow the shortwave in question to amplify enough to raise heights on the east coast and cut. Plain and simple.

this is how i see it - and the piece rotating west kills us

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you are 100pct correct.

I have an issue with people who think they are entitled to post on topics they know ZERO about. It would be like my 6th grade son going into medical message boards and posting and arguing with doctors. Most of the kids here argue with the Mets as if its their right....that is why this subforum is run by the inmates of the asylum.

 I've followed these boards long enough to see what you do. I use to think you were just captain pessimistic because you lived on the snowhole that is the south shore of LI. But after a while I came around to realizing that you knew what you were talking about. While you come off, well rather abrasive, you do bring up valid points and have the knowledge to back it up.

 

Keep in mind though.. as always, I am rooting against you. I thought Nemo would of at least made you complacent, but i see you are as pessimistic as ever :P

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The problem

Is the - PNA, with the relaxed PV with a lobe retrograding west into Canada allow the shortwave in question to amplify enough to raise heights on the east coast and cut. Plain and simple.

Always possible , But the WPO is headed to 4 SD below normal , that PV  can just as easily press .

By day 6 the SE  ridge heads east its much stronger midweek . NON of the ensembles see this cutting .

I never look at an OP run 7 days out .  That's all , anything can cut ,  I like this one to the BM

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 I've followed these boards long enough to see what you do. I use to think you were just captain pessimistic because you lived on the snowhole that is the south shore of LI. But after a while I came around to realizing that you knew what you were talking about. While you come off, well rather abrasive, you do bring up valid points and have the knowledge to back it up.

 

Keep in mind though.. as always, I am rooting against you. I thought Nemo would of at least made you complacent, but i see you are as pessimistic as ever :P

 

FYI - im rooting against me  :lmao:

 

I appeciate you saying those things....I dont try to start fights - i just say it like it is - take it or leave it.

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Must I emphasize that this is at least 9 days out, 9 effin days. Absolutely ridiculous that people are going off the hinges. The -EPO that's been responsible for most of our snow this winter will not change, and just going off of past history usually places that have above average snowfall by midwinter continue to do so.

 

The forecast for February is below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. You basically take climo snow for this month and double/triple it. 

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Must I emphasize that this is at least 9 days out, 9 effin days. Absolutely ridiculous that people are going off the hinge. The -EPO that's been responsible for most of our snow this winter will not change, and just going off of past history usually places that have above average by midwinter continue to do so. 

no one is going off the hinge - this is just a conversation about what can go wrong/right....

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Always possible , But the WPO is headed to 4 SD below normal , that PV  can just as easily press .

By day 6 the SE  ridge heads east its much stronger midweek . NON of the ensembles see this cutting .

I never look at an OP run 7 days out .  That's all , anything can cut ,  I like this one to the BM

None see this cutting? i see about 3 members in here cutting, and 2 more running the coast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_18z/f240.html

18z gefs @ 240.

It's a long way out. but to say this won't cut isn't a smart thing to say. 3 days ago some of the ops had wednesdays system offshore. High volatility in the operational models and shouldn't be taken verbatim 8-10 days out.

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I think there`s luck every time it snows at 40N on the coastal plain .

no doubt....but like betting , you try to figure out ways to increase your odds. In weather terms a -nao/+pna combo is that....this way is not the way. Its a long shot the way the current models have it depicted.

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FYI - im rooting against me  :lmao:

 

I appeciate you saying those things....I dont try to start fights - i just say it like it is - take it or leave it.

lol we are all snow weenies, it shouldn't shock you that people get defensive over the idea of storms giving us anything but snow.

 

1 of these 3-4 events is bound to give you snow and shut you up ;)

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None see this cutting? i see about 3 members in here cutting, and 2 more running the coast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_18z/f240.html

18z gefs @ 240.

It's a long way out. but to say this won't cut isn't a smart thing to say. 3 days ago some of the ops had wednesdays system offshore. High volatility in the operational models and shouldn't be taken verbatim 8-10 days out.

that is actually a perfect depiction of a +nao....all the amped are rain the rest are out to sea.

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lol we are all snow weenies, it shouldn't shock you that people get defensive over the idea of storms giving us anything but snow.

 

1 of these 3-4 events is bound to give you snow and shut you up ;)

sadly, the monday event is our best shot. I am fairy confident Weds is dead....and saturday is closing quick. JMHO

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Non of the Ensemble means cut this , You will never hear me speak in absolutes here , and if I allude to it ,  I always couch it IMO etc

None see this cutting? i see about 3 members in here cutting, and 2 more running the coast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_18z/f240.html

18z gefs @ 240.

It's a long way out. but to say this won't cut isn't a smart thing to say. 3 days ago some of the ops had wednesdays system offshore. High volatility in the operational models and shouldn't be taken verbatim 8-10 days out.

PB GFI, on 31 Jan 2014 - 12:51 AM, said:snapback.png

Always possible , But the WPO is headed to 4 SD below normal , that PV  can just as easily press .
By day 6 the SE  ridge heads east its much stronger midweek . NON of the ensembles see this cutting .
I never look at an OP run 7 days out .  That's all , anything can cut ,  I like this one to the BM

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sadly, the monday event is our best shot. I am fairy confident Weds is dead....and saturday is closing quick. JMHO

Are you kidding me? Well most of us got our climo snows with many going above so what's there to complain about as we're playing with house money right now. If the threats are dead, then there dead but they are not even close to being the final solution to what the current models depict right now. Models have struggled under 2-3 days, let alone 6-10+ days.

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Are you kidding me? Well most of us got our climo snows with many going above so what's there to complain about as we're playing with house money right now. If the threats are dead, then there dead but they are not even close to being the final solution to what the current models depict right now. Models have struggled under 2-3 days, let alone 6-10+ days.

i am not the gospel. It is quite possible I will be wrong....I like to look at the math and the odds....odds change. RIGHT NOW, based on what I am seeing, i am not thrilled.

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Based on what you're saying, we should be seeing about at least 1-3" of snow at least the next 7-10 days. I guess much crazier things have happened and for that, I respect your input. 

its quite possible we can see 1-3" two or three times over the next 10 days

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?

 

edit- i now see that the euro agrees with me....its good to have that one in your back pocket

You said Mondays our best shot , so I said nice call .

I was arguing and hoping the NAM was right , but I admit was concerned after seeing the 0z GFS .  ha

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You said Mondays our best shot , so I said nice call .

I was arguing and hoping the NAM was right , but I admit was concerned after seeing the 0z GFS .  ha

 

i think the Euro outperformed the gfs last week - even though everyone loved the gfs....the gfs is pretty big garbage in general

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i think the Euro outperformed the gfs last week - even though everyone loved the gfs....the gfs is pretty big garbage in general

There were 2 bias`s at work before , an amped up NAM at the end of its range and the GFS with its SE tendencies .

So was hoping it was jus trending . Bigger DAY 8  fish to fry , back in a few

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