PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 there is NO 50/50 on the maps you posted. 50/50 lows remain in that position leading up to the storm. They create a confluent flow north of us that locks in cold air. hP cells remain in place and cant slide east. The 50/50 is able to anchor itself in position because of high latitude blocking to its NE (-NAO).....that is why only 5 KU storms through 2000 had a +nao and 4 of those tainted here...for our latitude a -NAO is more important than anything else...it is dumb luck to get a snow storm in a +nao Ace , we just had a storm go through here 2 weeks ago where KNYC got 11 inches and 15 - 18 in Monmouth County with a POS NAO . Here`s how , you had a NEG WPO , that forced the heights to connect over the top drilling low level cold air into the CONUS You had NEG EPO , which helped pump the W ridge . ( yes now its now NEG , so all you did was potentially open a fire hose into the US , but non of this air is Pacific . You and I had this discussion 2 weeks ago and it turned out ok . If the arctic boundary is far enough S and that's what the models are seeing . then the PV should offer enough confluence to keep this to the BM . Anything can cut , but its wanted to snow here this year , We just got 2 inches of Snow on S wind last weekend . Closing in on 40 and its still Jan Sometimes it happens Maybe you`re right this time but I think Sat is DC to Boston . its ok we disagree but that cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The ESLR site. Don't have the link, I'm mobile. I believe ewall Does as well ewall has a historical page but all you can see are maps....i want to input what the pna numbers are, nao numbers and epo numbers to see what other time frames match,.....i would bet that there would be VERY few snowy analogs for anyone south of the CT/MA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ace , we just had a storm go through here 2 weeks ago where KNYC got 11 inches and 15 - 18 in Monmouth County with a POS NAO . Here`s how , you had a NEG WPO , that forced the heights to connect over the top drilling low level cold air into the CONUS You had NEG EPO , which helped pump the W ridge . ( yes now its now NEG , so all you did was potentially open a fire hose into the US , but non of this air is Pacific . You and I had this discussion 2 weeks ago and it turned out ok . If the arctic boundary is far enough S and that's what the models are seeing . then the PV should offer enough confluence to keep this to the BM . Anything can cut , but its wanted to snow here this year , We just got 2 inches of Snow on S wind last weekend . Closing in on 40 and its still Jan Sometimes it happens Maybe you`re right this time but I think Sat is DC to Boston . its ok we disagree but that cool. The problem Is the - PNA, with the relaxed PV with a lobe retrograding west into Canada allow the shortwave in question to amplify enough to raise heights on the east coast and cut. Plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ewall has a historical page but all you can see are maps....i want to input what the pna numbers are, nao numbers and epo numbers to see what other time frames match,.....i would bet that there would be VERY few snowy analogs for anyone south of the CT/MA border ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ace , we just had a storm go through here 2 weeks ago where KNYC got 11 inches and 15 - 18 in Monmouth County with a POS NAO . Here`s how , you had a NEG WPO , that forced the heights to connect over the top drilling low level cold air into the CONUS You had NEG EPO , which helped pump the W ridge . ( yes now its now NEG , so all you did was potentially open a fire hose into the US , but non of this air is Pacific . You and I had this discussion 2 weeks ago and it turned out ok . If the arctic boundary is far enough S and that's what the models are seeing . then the PV should offer enough confluence to keep this to the BM . Anything can cut , but its wanted to snow here this year , We just got 2 inches of Snow on S wind last weekend . Closing in on 40 and its still Jan Sometimes it happens Maybe you`re right this time but I think Sat is DC to Boston . its ok we disagree but that cool. you are oversimplifying the situation. 2 week ago we got lucky with a perfectly timed davis straight block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/ thanks but i would need a program to comb through that data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The problem Is the - PNA, with the relaxed PV with a lobe retrograding west into Canada allow the shortwave in question to amplify enough to raise heights on the east coast and cut. Plain and simple. this is how i see it - and the piece rotating west kills us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you are 100pct correct. I have an issue with people who think they are entitled to post on topics they know ZERO about. It would be like my 6th grade son going into medical message boards and posting and arguing with doctors. Most of the kids here argue with the Mets as if its their right....that is why this subforum is run by the inmates of the asylum. I've followed these boards long enough to see what you do. I use to think you were just captain pessimistic because you lived on the snowhole that is the south shore of LI. But after a while I came around to realizing that you knew what you were talking about. While you come off, well rather abrasive, you do bring up valid points and have the knowledge to back it up. Keep in mind though.. as always, I am rooting against you. I thought Nemo would of at least made you complacent, but i see you are as pessimistic as ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The problem Is the - PNA, with the relaxed PV with a lobe retrograding west into Canada allow the shortwave in question to amplify enough to raise heights on the east coast and cut. Plain and simple. Always possible , But the WPO is headed to 4 SD below normal , that PV can just as easily press . By day 6 the SE ridge heads east its much stronger midweek . NON of the ensembles see this cutting . I never look at an OP run 7 days out . That's all , anything can cut , I like this one to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you are oversimplifying the situation. 2 week ago we got lucky with a perfectly timed davis straight block I think there`s luck every time it snows at 40N on the coastal plain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've followed these boards long enough to see what you do. I use to think you were just captain pessimistic because you lived on the snowhole that is the south shore of LI. But after a while I came around to realizing that you knew what you were talking about. While you come off, well rather abrasive, you do bring up valid points and have the knowledge to back it up. Keep in mind though.. as always, I am rooting against you. I thought Nemo would of at least made you complacent, but i see you are as pessimistic as ever FYI - im rooting against me I appeciate you saying those things....I dont try to start fights - i just say it like it is - take it or leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Must I emphasize that this is at least 9 days out, 9 effin days. Absolutely ridiculous that people are going off the hinges. The -EPO that's been responsible for most of our snow this winter will not change, and just going off of past history usually places that have above average snowfall by midwinter continue to do so. The forecast for February is below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. You basically take climo snow for this month and double/triple it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lets hope the Euro locks the 50/50 in like it did last night...which allowed the trough to dig over the tenn valley (there is also some ridging out west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Must I emphasize that this is at least 9 days out, 9 effin days. Absolutely ridiculous that people are going off the hinge. The -EPO that's been responsible for most of our snow this winter will not change, and just going off of past history usually places that have above average by midwinter continue to do so. no one is going off the hinge - this is just a conversation about what can go wrong/right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Always possible , But the WPO is headed to 4 SD below normal , that PV can just as easily press . By day 6 the SE ridge heads east its much stronger midweek . NON of the ensembles see this cutting . I never look at an OP run 7 days out . That's all , anything can cut , I like this one to the BM None see this cutting? i see about 3 members in here cutting, and 2 more running the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_18z/f240.html 18z gefs @ 240. It's a long way out. but to say this won't cut isn't a smart thing to say. 3 days ago some of the ops had wednesdays system offshore. High volatility in the operational models and shouldn't be taken verbatim 8-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think there`s luck every time it snows at 40N on the coastal plain . no doubt....but like betting , you try to figure out ways to increase your odds. In weather terms a -nao/+pna combo is that....this way is not the way. Its a long shot the way the current models have it depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 FYI - im rooting against me I appeciate you saying those things....I dont try to start fights - i just say it like it is - take it or leave it. lol we are all snow weenies, it shouldn't shock you that people get defensive over the idea of storms giving us anything but snow. 1 of these 3-4 events is bound to give you snow and shut you up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 None see this cutting? i see about 3 members in here cutting, and 2 more running the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_18z/f240.html 18z gefs @ 240. It's a long way out. but to say this won't cut isn't a smart thing to say. 3 days ago some of the ops had wednesdays system offshore. High volatility in the operational models and shouldn't be taken verbatim 8-10 days out. that is actually a perfect depiction of a +nao....all the amped are rain the rest are out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 lol we are all snow weenies, it shouldn't shock you that people get defensive over the idea of storms giving us anything but snow. 1 of these 3-4 events is bound to give you snow and shut you up sadly, the monday event is our best shot. I am fairy confident Weds is dead....and saturday is closing quick. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Non of the Ensemble means cut this , You will never hear me speak in absolutes here , and if I allude to it , I always couch it IMO etc None see this cutting? i see about 3 members in here cutting, and 2 more running the coast.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_18z/f240.html18z gefs @ 240.It's a long way out. but to say this won't cut isn't a smart thing to say. 3 days ago some of the ops had wednesdays system offshore. High volatility in the operational models and shouldn't be taken verbatim 8-10 days out. PB GFI, on 31 Jan 2014 - 12:51 AM, said: Always possible , But the WPO is headed to 4 SD below normal , that PV can just as easily press .By day 6 the SE ridge heads east its much stronger midweek . NON of the ensembles see this cutting .I never look at an OP run 7 days out . That's all , anything can cut , I like this one to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 sadly, the monday event is our best shot. I am fairy confident Weds is dead....and saturday is closing quick. JMHO Based on what you're saying, we should be seeing about at least 1-3" of snow at least the next 7-10 days. I guess much crazier things have happened and for that, I respect your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 sadly, the monday event is our best shot. I am fairy confident Weds is dead....and saturday is closing quick. JMHO Are you kidding me? Well most of us got our climo snows with many going above so what's there to complain about as we're playing with house money right now. If the threats are dead, then there dead but they are not even close to being the final solution to what the current models depict right now. Models have struggled under 2-3 days, let alone 6-10+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Are you kidding me? Well most of us got our climo snows with many going above so what's there to complain about as we're playing with house money right now. If the threats are dead, then there dead but they are not even close to being the final solution to what the current models depict right now. Models have struggled under 2-3 days, let alone 6-10+ days. i am not the gospel. It is quite possible I will be wrong....I like to look at the math and the odds....odds change. RIGHT NOW, based on what I am seeing, i am not thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Based on what you're saying, we should be seeing about at least 1-3" of snow at least the next 7-10 days. I guess much crazier things have happened and for that, I respect your input. its quite possible we can see 1-3" two or three times over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 its quite possible we can see 1-3" two or three times over the next 10 days Hey nice call Monday . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hey nice call Monday . 6 ? edit- i now see that the euro agrees with me....its good to have that one in your back pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ? He's saying nice call for Monday being the best producer for snow. The 00Z ECM has 4-7" of snow area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ? edit- i now see that the euro agrees with me....its good to have that one in your back pocket You said Mondays our best shot , so I said nice call . I was arguing and hoping the NAM was right , but I admit was concerned after seeing the 0z GFS . ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You said Mondays our best shot , so I said nice call . I was arguing and hoping the NAM was right , but I admit was concerned after seeing the 0z GFS . ha i think the Euro outperformed the gfs last week - even though everyone loved the gfs....the gfs is pretty big garbage in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i think the Euro outperformed the gfs last week - even though everyone loved the gfs....the gfs is pretty big garbage in general There were 2 bias`s at work before , an amped up NAM at the end of its range and the GFS with its SE tendencies . So was hoping it was jus trending . Bigger DAY 8 fish to fry , back in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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