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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Like Facebook there should be a "like" button for certain posts.

Tonights 0z model runs "should" be the make or break for this storm as all players from the northern stream and southern stream should be sampled. Tendency for northern stream waves this year have been forecasted to be weak and in the end more energetic in the end making them dig further being the eventual outcome. Not saying its happening now but its been in the back of my head since 7 days out
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Tonights 0z model runs "should" be the make or break for this storm as all players from the northern stream and southern stream should be sampled. Tendency for northern stream waves this year have been forecasted to be weak and in the end more energetic in the end making them dig further being the eventual outcome. Not saying its happening now but its been in the back of my head since 7 days out

This prob trends through 12z Sat. 

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Yea I think the key is the small disturbance that exits the SE over the next 24 hours after that we should get a clear picture

Coupled with northern and southern stream components all being on the field im going with the seasonal trends. Not saying a major trend back towards a blockbuster ( secretly do ) but a moderate event still is still well within the realm of possibilities

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Let's all remember one thing here: the pattern this winter is stronger, and more north. Remember Mondays storm wasn't supposed to be much, nor was the one a few weeks ago in the Baltimore PHIL regoin. Even if the models are right and the storm goes OTS, you can at least bring it north, and maybe even allowing a phasing for coastal NJ NYC LI up north. We will see.

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Let's all remember one thing here: the pattern this winter is stronger, and more north. Remember Mondays storm wasn't supposed to be much, nor was the one a few weeks ago in the Baltimore PHIL regoin. Even if the models are right and the storm goes OTS, you can at least bring it north, and maybe even allowing a phasing for coastal NJ NYC LI up north. We will see.

There's an area of confluence (sheared out S/W) north of Saturday's system which could act to keep it suppressed. Also, the SE Ridge is weaker than other storms have had, and the wave trailing it is interfering with its ability to amplify on its own. It's going to be hard for something to reach north to here with those factors in place.

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