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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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This certainly would be a huge head scratcher if it came NORTH and phased somewhat.  Obviously the likelihood at this point is slim but you never know.  The past 30 days have been record breaking across the area so it wouldn't be all that surprising to us on these boards. 

 

However, I can just hear everyone that is not into the weather and just listens to the news be like OMG they never know what they are talking about.  But in reality this hobby and profession is not at all easy to predict and forecast.  Meteorologists get too much grief in my opinion from the general public.  It's not their fault that models can not get their act together and certain seasons pose a slue a problems in forecasting.  Obviously METS just use models for guidance not a forecast but it is still not easy in complex and dynamic instances.

 

Any thoughts?

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This certainly would be a huge head scratcher if it came NORTH and phased somewhat.  Obviously the likelihood at this point is slim but you never know.  The past 30 days have been record breaking across the area so it wouldn't be all that surprising to us on these boards. 

 

However, I can just hear everyone that is not into the weather and just listens to the news be like OMG they never know what they are talking about.  But in reality this hobby and profession is not at all easy to predict and forecast.  Meteorologists get too much grief in my opinion from the general public.  It's not their fault that models can not get their act together and certain seasons pose a slue a problems in forecasting.  Obviously METS just use models for guidance not a forecast but it is still not easy in complex and dynamic instances.

 

Any thoughts?

 

The only people getting any grief now were the ones talking about specific snowfall amounts that the euro was showing

past 120 hrs on broadcast media outlets. I was in the car the other day and heard a well known broadcast weather

personality talk about the 10 day Euro snowfall specific amounts which wasn't very smart. These people have to realize

that throwing that out in the media is different than us posting the day 10 Euro snowfall maps in a model thread that

is for our own entertainment. The general public sees something like that and they get really nervous. I can't tell you

how many e-mails I got from friends and family asking me if we were going to get 20 inches this weekend.

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This certainly would be a huge head scratcher if it came NORTH and phased somewhat. Obviously the likelihood at this point is slim but you never know. The past 30 days have been record breaking across the area so it wouldn't be all that surprising to us on these boards.

However, I can just hear everyone that is not into the weather and just listens to the news be like OMG they never know what they are talking about. But in reality this hobby and profession is not at all easy to predict and forecast. Meteorologists get too much grief in my opinion from the general public. It's not their fault that models can not get their act together and certain seasons pose a slue a problems in forecasting. Obviously METS just use models for guidance not a forecast but it is still not easy in complex and dynamic instances.

Any thoughts?

Great point...all you hear is people say stuff like "oh well these forecasters never know what's going on", or "20% chance of rain ?! Yeah right....it's pouring!". I think to the general public and with most people's thinking that don't understand much about how forecasts are made....that weathermen might see a radar and then have to track where that precipitation will head. They don't look deeper into the fact that forecasters use models to forecast, and if they are WAY off, then the forecasts can change very quickly or be very uncertain. If the sports anchor on the news predicts that a team will win (based on their season, opponent and other variables), and is wrong, he'll get nothing more than a few jokes. But weather forecasters get the brunt of it usually...:.

And on another note.....you have to understand that throwing a euro model run's snowfall amounts on TV saying "there is a weather model that shows that we might be receiving 35" of snow this weekend, so be ready".....Is more about keeping their news exciting and less about warning the public and having them be prepared. And yes....in stores and all over, I have heard people talk about the "weekend blizzard" and how schools might be closed the first few days of the week...."last time we saw snow like we'll get this weekend was back in 96", etc etc

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Is amazing how hyped is this storm on social media... even my family in the Caribbean are asking about the Mega Storm ... guess a lot of people are going to be surprised when they see clear skies.

It's ridiculous, but this is the modern world that we live in now I suppose. A vast majority of the general public has no clue that they can see what the models say for themselves by simply going to the right internet site, and in most cases, free of charge.

 

I blame the :weenie: or :weenie: 's that are leaking these maps out in the first place. Post a map showing widespread 2' totals on facebook and it's going to spread like wildfire.

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The only people getting any grief now were the ones talking about specific snowfall amounts that the euro was showing

past 120 hrs on broadcast media outlets. I was in the car the other day and heard a well known broadcast weather

personality talk about the 10 day Euro snowfall specific amounts which wasn't very smart. These people have to realize

that throwing that out in the media is different than us posting the day 10 Euro snowfall maps in a model thread that

is for our own entertainment. The general public sees something like that and they get really nervous. I can't tell you

how many e-mails I got from friends and family asking me if we were going to get 20 inches this weekend.

 

Completely agree it was very irresponsible for forecasters to throw those amounts out.  But I will tell you it spread like crazy and you know when the NWS issue statements on it then it definitely went to far. 

 

Also, social media blew this way out of proportion but I guess that is the society we live in today.

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Weren't those maps that popped up on Facebook shown to be regurgitated totals from last year's storm?

No the main map floating around was one EPS control run total snowfall. I also saw someone share the RPM model again. It's people posting and sharing maps that they have no clue about. The NWS actually said they were getting calls from local townships asking them if they should prepare for a major blizzard. It's getting close to out of control.

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No the main map floating around was one EPS control run total snowfall. I also saw someone share the RPM model again. It's people posting and sharing maps that they have no clue about. The NWS actually said they were getting calls from local townships asking them if they should prepare for a major blizzard. It's getting close to out of control.

Ah, gotcha. Yes, the general public is very skittish about snowstorms in general and especially after last Feb. thanks for the insight.

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I am from Pittsburgh but let me tell you about the experiences I have had with this fantasy storm. I have had both my parents ask about this "mega blizzard" coming and to be safe. I have heard kids on campus talk about the blizzard coming saying they are driving east towards the coast this weekend. I have had my mom ask me if i knew about the blizzard coming which she heard from my aunt. My aunt apparently heard from three different people. The hype is incredible, feb 2010 for us wasnt even on the radar yet this storm ten days out is causing panic. It just goes to show how one person posting a false or fantasy model under false information can cause such chaos.

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It's ridiculous, but this is the modern world that we live in now I suppose. A vast majority of the general public has no clue that they can see what the models say for themselves by simply going to the right internet site, and in most cases, free of charge.

I blame the :weenie: or :weenie: 's that are leaking these maps out in the first place. Post a map showing widespread 2' totals on facebook and it's going to spread like wildfire.

Yes but the fact that media outlets reported on it is even more disappointing. There used to be something called professional standards and verification of sources used to be required before a media outlet would comment on or create a story.
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The overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday morning look snowy. Coming in around midnight or shortly after. Looks like between 0.10" and 0.25". 850mb temps are in the -4 C to -8C range which is pretty optimal for dendrite growth. Thinking 12:1 so 1-3" looks likely, maybe 2-4" in spots that can squeeze out a little bit more.

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The southern stream energy escapes and doesn't phase with the northern stream energy. The flow is just too progressive with the lack of blocking. What we need to watch for is the possibility of a Norlan that could bring light snow to the region.

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