WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah....if they are not going to meet up, then I would think a miss way south would be best to give it something more from the northern stream. Overall, this NAM run was no improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This certainly would be a huge head scratcher if it came NORTH and phased somewhat. Obviously the likelihood at this point is slim but you never know. The past 30 days have been record breaking across the area so it wouldn't be all that surprising to us on these boards. However, I can just hear everyone that is not into the weather and just listens to the news be like OMG they never know what they are talking about. But in reality this hobby and profession is not at all easy to predict and forecast. Meteorologists get too much grief in my opinion from the general public. It's not their fault that models can not get their act together and certain seasons pose a slue a problems in forecasting. Obviously METS just use models for guidance not a forecast but it is still not easy in complex and dynamic instances. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This certainly would be a huge head scratcher if it came NORTH and phased somewhat. Obviously the likelihood at this point is slim but you never know. The past 30 days have been record breaking across the area so it wouldn't be all that surprising to us on these boards. However, I can just hear everyone that is not into the weather and just listens to the news be like OMG they never know what they are talking about. But in reality this hobby and profession is not at all easy to predict and forecast. Meteorologists get too much grief in my opinion from the general public. It's not their fault that models can not get their act together and certain seasons pose a slue a problems in forecasting. Obviously METS just use models for guidance not a forecast but it is still not easy in complex and dynamic instances. Any thoughts? The only people getting any grief now were the ones talking about specific snowfall amounts that the euro was showing past 120 hrs on broadcast media outlets. I was in the car the other day and heard a well known broadcast weather personality talk about the 10 day Euro snowfall specific amounts which wasn't very smart. These people have to realize that throwing that out in the media is different than us posting the day 10 Euro snowfall maps in a model thread that is for our own entertainment. The general public sees something like that and they get really nervous. I can't tell you how many e-mails I got from friends and family asking me if we were going to get 20 inches this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This certainly would be a huge head scratcher if it came NORTH and phased somewhat. Obviously the likelihood at this point is slim but you never know. The past 30 days have been record breaking across the area so it wouldn't be all that surprising to us on these boards. However, I can just hear everyone that is not into the weather and just listens to the news be like OMG they never know what they are talking about. But in reality this hobby and profession is not at all easy to predict and forecast. Meteorologists get too much grief in my opinion from the general public. It's not their fault that models can not get their act together and certain seasons pose a slue a problems in forecasting. Obviously METS just use models for guidance not a forecast but it is still not easy in complex and dynamic instances. Any thoughts? Great point...all you hear is people say stuff like "oh well these forecasters never know what's going on", or "20% chance of rain ?! Yeah right....it's pouring!". I think to the general public and with most people's thinking that don't understand much about how forecasts are made....that weathermen might see a radar and then have to track where that precipitation will head. They don't look deeper into the fact that forecasters use models to forecast, and if they are WAY off, then the forecasts can change very quickly or be very uncertain. If the sports anchor on the news predicts that a team will win (based on their season, opponent and other variables), and is wrong, he'll get nothing more than a few jokes. But weather forecasters get the brunt of it usually...:.And on another note.....you have to understand that throwing a euro model run's snowfall amounts on TV saying "there is a weather model that shows that we might be receiving 35" of snow this weekend, so be ready".....Is more about keeping their news exciting and less about warning the public and having them be prepared. And yes....in stores and all over, I have heard people talk about the "weekend blizzard" and how schools might be closed the first few days of the week...."last time we saw snow like we'll get this weekend was back in 96", etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is amazing how hyped is this storm on social media... even my family in the Caribbean are asking about the Mega Storm ... guess a lot of people are going to be surprised when they see clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is amazing how hyped is this storm on social media... even my family in the Caribbean are asking about the Mega Storm ... guess a lot of people are going to be surprised when they see clear skies. It's ridiculous, but this is the modern world that we live in now I suppose. A vast majority of the general public has no clue that they can see what the models say for themselves by simply going to the right internet site, and in most cases, free of charge. I blame the or 's that are leaking these maps out in the first place. Post a map showing widespread 2' totals on facebook and it's going to spread like wildfire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The only people getting any grief now were the ones talking about specific snowfall amounts that the euro was showing past 120 hrs on broadcast media outlets. I was in the car the other day and heard a well known broadcast weather personality talk about the 10 day Euro snowfall specific amounts which wasn't very smart. These people have to realize that throwing that out in the media is different than us posting the day 10 Euro snowfall maps in a model thread that is for our own entertainment. The general public sees something like that and they get really nervous. I can't tell you how many e-mails I got from friends and family asking me if we were going to get 20 inches this weekend. Completely agree it was very irresponsible for forecasters to throw those amounts out. But I will tell you it spread like crazy and you know when the NWS issue statements on it then it definitely went to far. Also, social media blew this way out of proportion but I guess that is the society we live in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I did notice this morning Sunday being used as a "teaser" before commercial breaks. Like "tune in for that Sunday forcast...". Slightly annoying, but that's the way it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Weren't those maps that popped up on Facebook shown to be regurgitated totals from last year's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Posting snowfall accumulation maps on twitter or facebook is simply not responsible. I've been on Facebook for years and yet I've never posted anything weather related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Weren't those maps that popped up on Facebook shown to be regurgitated totals from last year's storm? No the main map floating around was one EPS control run total snowfall. I also saw someone share the RPM model again. It's people posting and sharing maps that they have no clue about. The NWS actually said they were getting calls from local townships asking them if they should prepare for a major blizzard. It's getting close to out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 No the main map floating around was one EPS control run total snowfall. I also saw someone share the RPM model again. It's people posting and sharing maps that they have no clue about. The NWS actually said they were getting calls from local townships asking them if they should prepare for a major blizzard. It's getting close to out of control. Ah, gotcha. Yes, the general public is very skittish about snowstorms in general and especially after last Feb. thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I've seen that RPM model image showing over 30" of snow in NYC from last year being posted all over ! Not only is it extremely inaccurate, it's over a year old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I am from Pittsburgh but let me tell you about the experiences I have had with this fantasy storm. I have had both my parents ask about this "mega blizzard" coming and to be safe. I have heard kids on campus talk about the blizzard coming saying they are driving east towards the coast this weekend. I have had my mom ask me if i knew about the blizzard coming which she heard from my aunt. My aunt apparently heard from three different people. The hype is incredible, feb 2010 for us wasnt even on the radar yet this storm ten days out is causing panic. It just goes to show how one person posting a false or fantasy model under false information can cause such chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Guys I made a separate discussion thread to discuss the problems with posting maps on social media sites rather than clogging up a storm discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's ridiculous, but this is the modern world that we live in now I suppose. A vast majority of the general public has no clue that they can see what the models say for themselves by simply going to the right internet site, and in most cases, free of charge. I blame the or 's that are leaking these maps out in the first place. Post a map showing widespread 2' totals on facebook and it's going to spread like wildfire. Yes but the fact that media outlets reported on it is even more disappointing. There used to be something called professional standards and verification of sources used to be required before a media outlet would comment on or create a story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Any major changes on the 12z GFS so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not really, coastal passing offshore. Light snow moving in as early as Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I know I shouldn't do this.. but I'm still hoping to get a moderate event on sunday-monday. Lol. I don't know..this year. ..is about luck... for example everyone talking about feb 4-5 and feb 8 event.. and the one that truly delivered was feb 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday morning look snowy. Coming in around midnight or shortly after. Looks like between 0.10" and 0.25". 850mb temps are in the -4 C to -8C range which is pretty optimal for dendrite growth. Thinking 12:1 so 1-3" looks likely, maybe 2-4" in spots that can squeeze out a little bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The GFS actually attempts to spin up a little coastal surface low as the clipper hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The southern stream energy escapes and doesn't phase with the northern stream energy. The flow is just too progressive with the lack of blocking. What we need to watch for is the possibility of a Norlan that could bring light snow to the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It looked more amped up initially and that's been the theme this winter so perhaps it will keep trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This is the reason we have to keep tracking the Sunday event - this is the GFS 75 hours prior to the 2/3 event the storm missed to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The energy involved should all be on shore by the 00z runs tonight. Hopefully things become clearer at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well our clipper is suddenly sitting in the 50/50 position come Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The PV actually splits over Eastern Canada with the dome of high pressure sitting over the Central US spreading up into Hudson Bay for the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here comes the energy out of the Pacific at 120 hours, if we can get the northern branch to really reinforce the cold...might show something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 so how much snow actually falles on Saturday/Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Good amount of confluent flow over all of SE Canada with a dome of high pressure encompassing nearly the entire eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.