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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1130 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM

THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY

DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR

THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT

WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

NEW FAIRFIELD 28.0 1050 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

NEWTOWN 27.0 840 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WESTON 24.5 800 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

DANBURY 24.1 300 PM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

RIDGEFIELD 22.0 645 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

3 SSE BROOKFIELD 22.0 730 AM 1/12 COCORAHS

DANBURY 21.8 1000 AM 1/12 NWS COOP

WILTON 18.7 830 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

NEW CANAAN 18.0 915 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

DARIEN 17.5 1100 AM 1/12 CT DOT

WESTPORT 17.4 815 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SHELTON 17.3 950 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

BRIDGEPORT 16.0 100 PM 1/12 NWS COOP

NORWALK 16.0 934 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

GREENWICH 15.5 250 PM 1/12 PUBLIC

STRATFORD 14.0 930 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

STAMFORD 14.0 800 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER[/quote

Yes this was the storm. And yes it certainly was a norlun. It was the first time I heard of it.

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The robust solution is gone. But a light to mod one is possible. I told u march 2001. U have to take stuff in the LR lightly

I don't think its even close to march 2001..models all had a huge blizzard and didn't bust until inside 48 hours and many locations still got pummeled... This is just a common LR threat that didn't come together

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We should begin to focus on the Miller A for the middle and latter part of next week BUT too early to start a thread so we don't have to go through the nonsense and hype of 45 pages . HPC is now showing this Miller A for next week lets see if we get some consistency the next couple of days

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

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We should begin to focus on the Miller A for the middle and latter part of next week BUT too early to start a thread so we don't have to go through the nonsense and hype of 45 pages . HPC is now showing this Miller A for next week lets see if we get some consistency the next couple of days

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

too late that thread has already been started

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We should begin to focus on the Miller A for the middle and latter part of next week BUT too early to start a thread so we don't have to go through the nonsense and hype of 45 pages . HPC is now showing this Miller A for next week lets see if we get some consistency the next couple of days

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Mid week storm does look appetizing but im not focusing on that till monday the earliest. Too far off and after this storm ive learned my lesson on LR threats and admit i got too excited prematurely

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If you want some encouragement, look at the pattern the next 7-12 days and it is still RIPE with potential. John has credit saying this one might of had to been sacrificed for potentially bigger things down the road, patience and i feel confident we'll get atleast one moderate snow event out of this pattern

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Two comments about the 00z ECWMF ensemble means

 

First - They keep the coastal well south and east of the area on Sunday but throw back the inverted trough signal.

 

Second - They like a primary to the Ohio Valley transferring to a secondary and then up the coast. The mean was also wet in the southeast so my guess is the members are somewhat split between a miller B and more of a miller A scenario. Regardless next Thursday-Friday looks stormy.

 

No signs of any major warm ups anytime in the next 16 days.

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The system for Sunday morning on the NAM isn't an inverted trough per say. It's a clipper that looks to get enhanced by some late sloppy phasing right as the two pass each other.

 

We would need the northern stream to drop in and phase while the southern stream vort is still in the deep south. Unless that happens, the northern stream "clipper" actually helps to push the coastal offshore.

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This outcome/ trend would fit this seasons tendencies for N&W shifts inside 60 hrs perfectly. I said earlier this morning N&W shifts were not out of the question and look whats happening right now

There's an area of confluence being created by another vort north of the 60hr low that needs to move out of the way more before we would have a shot. We also want the second vort behind it to move closer to the 60hr storm so there can be interaction. If neither of these change, I think we're mostly in for a minor event at best.

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So close out west, the southern vort has a lot more interaction with the ULL over the PAC NW as early as hour 21. The runs which gave us the monster had this ULL ejecting as one piece.

 

Arguably a piece of the ULL phased in already. The southern vort looks intense. Let's see how it plays out the rest of the way.

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