atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The low is able to cut because the high pressure that is at 1043mbs weakens and slides east off the coast allowing the low to end up where it ends up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The low is able to cut because the high pressure that is at 1043mbs weakens and slides east off the coast allowing the low to end up where it ends up! No , a NEG tilted trough coming out of the SW in the face of a SE ridge really has to cut don`t think that's where the argument is , is where does the primary die and where does it secondary . You know what dude I thought you were referring to the midweek storm , Just checked the thread , THIS DOESNT CUT . This will come to arctic wave and ride to the BM . G o with the ensembles , I was talking about the midweek storm , my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yes, that's what I meant. Thanks sir. There is no way we are getting that this week. 20" is probably a dream right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No you cannot say that because if our storm cuts on Wednesday it strengthens the PV and 50/50 block and suppresses the next storm further south for us to get into good snows right - it will DEFINITELY strengthen the PV....its smart to speak in definitives when you have been watching maps for maybe 4 months. Give me one reason why it will? Do you even know why? What will keep the PV in place? Why wouldnt it just rotate up to greenland or shift back west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The low is able to cut because the high pressure that is at 1043mbs weakens and slides east off the coast allowing the low to end up where it ends up! not really - both are a result of other factors. its like, why does a pitcher have a high ERA but a low WHIP?...many factors behind the scenes. good k/bb ratio but he is a fly ball pitcher and gives up many HR's....maybe his BAPIP is higher than norm. The hP slides east because there is nothing to hold it in place. hence the +NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Geez....everyone relax. Fact is, if every storm we were negative about panned out as negatively as many of us once thought....we wouldn't have gotten many of the snowstorms that we did. Something I'm sure will come for us in the next week and a half in the form of a significant snowstorm. I'm sure every system will not cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 right - it will DEFINITELY strengthen the PV....its smart to speak in definitives when you have been watching maps for maybe 4 months. Give me one reason why it will? Do you even know why? What will keep the PV in place? Why wouldnt it just rotate up to greenland or shift back west? There is a cross polar flow massive -EPO, 50/50 block helps keep cold air locked in similar to PDII, also it makes sense that when the cutter moves up the next disturbance will be shunted further south for us to get snow due to the baroclinic zone further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Okay. I should mention that the PV that's responsible for the midweek storm to cut with be over Southern Canada, but this time the SE Ridge will be more suppressed and there could be plenty of room for amplification. I wouldn't worry too much about it cutting. The reason for this because the trough will undercut the PV and it'll take advantage of the room that it has before it runs into a blocking HP. Could prove to be an interesting week. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No , a NEG tilted trough coming out of the SW in the face of a SE ridge really has to cut don`t think that's where the argument is , is where does the primary die and where does it secondary . You know what dude I thought you were referring to the midweek storm , Just checked the thread , THIS DOESNT CUT . This will come to arctic wave and ride to the BM . G o with the ensembles , I was talking about the midweek st Lets face it ace grew up in the snow drought era of the 70's and 80's so thats why he is negative lol and he is traumatized, young snow weenies prosper more in the 80's....i wish i was a bit older so i would have remembered feb 78 a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 not really - both are a result of other factors. its like, why does a pitcher have a high ERA but a low WHIP?...many factors behind the scenes. good k/bb ratio but he is a fly ball pitcher and gives up many HR's....maybe his BAPIP is higher than norm. The hP slides east because there is nothing to hold it in place. hence the +NAO... Ah now I see why you re all in a huff , I was doing 3 things this is all over 1 OP run lol . Haven`t you been doing this a long time . Sat storm will come out of the gulf and run to the BM , The GFS is just rushing the warm air through the middle of the country because it sees a neg PNA . it loves to do it . check the ensembles The trough is strong enough it will force this down thru the GULF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ah now I see why you re all in a huff , I was doing 3 things this is all over 1 OP run lol . Haven`t you been doing this a long time . Sat storm will come out of the gulf and run to the BM , The GFS is just rushing the warm air through the middle of the country because it sees a neg PNA . it loves to do it . check the ensembles The trough is strong enough it will force this down thru the GULF i disagree.....the upper air features need drastic alteration. Last night EC at 240 was EXACTLY what you want to see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 what? open up the kocin book. 50 pct on +nao? WRONG. From 1950-2000 only SIX of THIRTY KU storms had a +NAO.....some had the NAO going positive through the storm but not leading up to it Also, of those 6, FOUR tainted in and around the NYC area Correct. From Volume 1 of the Kocin-Uccellini book, p.32: Of the 30 significant snowstorm cases..., 22 occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly in its negative phase. Five cases occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly positive. Of these 22 cases, 10 occurred during a period when the negative phase of the NAO was weakening or becoming positive... Of the 30 near-miss cases..., 16 or slightly more than half of the cases occurred during distinct periods during which the NAO was in a negative mode, while 9 occurred during a positive mode. However, 14 of 30 occurred during periods when the negative phase of the NAO was either weakening or becoming positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Correct. From Volume 1 of the Kocin-Uccelini book, p.32: Of the 30 significant snowstorm cases..., 22 occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly in its negative phase. Five cases occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly positive. Of these 22 cases, 10 occurred during a period when the negative phase of the NAO was weakening or becoming positive... Of the 30 near-miss cases..., 16 or slightly more than half of the cases occurred during distinct periods during which the NAO was in a negative mode, while 9 occurred during a positive mode. However, 14 of 30 occurred during periods when the negative phase of the NAO was either weakening or becoming positive. Thank you, Don! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's my thinking....if the setup was so great last night and so terrible now, what exactly happened in a matter of hours that changed the outcome ad set it in stone now ? Just a point to ponder. Nothing's done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's my thinking....if the setup was so great last night and so terrible now, what exactly happened in a matter of hours that changed the outcome ad set it in stone now ? Just a point to ponder. Nothing's done yet WHO said it was great? Those that are forcing it to be. It is NOT a great set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I am teenage and I posted the 18z GEFS ensembles for the 8th and PDII in reference to the massive 50/50 low keeping HP locked in the Northeast, would love some meteorologists input, learning here there is NO 50/50 on the maps you posted. 50/50 lows remain in that position leading up to the storm. They create a confluent flow north of us that locks in cold air. hP cells remain in place and cant slide east. The 50/50 is able to anchor itself in position because of high latitude blocking to its NE (-NAO).....that is why only 5 KU storms through 2000 had a +nao and 4 of those tainted here...for our latitude a -NAO is more important than anything else...it is dumb luck to get a snow storm in a +nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Awesome GGEM run, I-78 north stays all frozen throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 there is NO 50/50 on the maps you posted. 50/50 lows remain in that position leading up to the storm. They create a confluent flow north of us that locks in cold air. hP cells remain in place and cant slide east. The 50/50 is able to anchor itself in position because of high latitude blocking to its NE (-NAO).....that is why only 5 KU storms through 2000 had a +nao and 4 of those tainted here...for our latitude a -NAO is more important than anything else...it is dumb luck to get a snow storm in a +nao If you look at the 500mb mean there is a 50/50 low predominantly in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 right on cue - the 0Z GFS has no block, no 50/50 and the storm is an exact repeat of weds....even the Mets around here are gung ho about these two systems...I dont get it. Never ever in my 15 years of doing this have experienced mets touted a -pna/+nao as a pattern that can produce...can the -epo be that influential to the pattern?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If you look at the 500mb mean there is a 50/50 low predominantly in that area you dont know what 50/50 means. those are coordinates. its not 60/60....it needs to be near 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I knew an output like this was going to happen. The trough axis is more West than usual, so therefore the storm will cut before running into the block over SE Canada and it will redevelop off the coast. If the block pushes further south, then a scenario like this will occur 200 miles further south.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 right on cue - the 0Z GFS has no block, no 50/50 and the storm is an exact repeat of weds....even the Mets around here are gung ho about these two systems...I dont get it. Never ever in my 15 years of doing this have experienced mets touted a -pna/+nao as a pattern that can produce...can the -epo be that influential to the pattern?? Look at Dec 2013, 8.6" in NYC, Feb 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 right on cue - the 0Z GFS has no block, no 50/50 and the storm is an exact repeat of weds....even the Mets around here are gung ho about these two systems...I dont get it. Never ever in my 15 years of doing this have experienced mets touted a -pna/+nao as a pattern that can produce...can the -epo be that influential to the pattern?? It was in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Look at Dec 2013, 8.6" in NYC, Feb 1994 dude - you think those are the only 2 times that happened???? What about ENTIRE winters that had these patterns???? Winters that had less than 10" for the entire season. Like I said, I will book your 8 team parlays any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It was in December. when you want to put in your 8-team parlay I will book them as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 when you want to put in your 8-team parlays I will book them as well Lol. I was just as surprised as you how dec turned out. That -EPO trolled us all. I'm Not if this time around the shorter wavelengths allow things to amplify a bit more as compared to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is there a site that allows you to input certain index's and compare to other historical situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is there a site that allows you to input certain index's and compare to other historical situations? The ESLR site. Don't have the link, I'm mobile. I believe ewall Does as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol. I was just as surprised as you how dec turned out. That -EPO trolled us all. I'm Not if this time around the shorter wavelengths allow things to amplify a bit more as compared to December. thats what I am saying - these kids see it once and they think its going to always repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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