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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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The low is able to cut because the high pressure that is at 1043mbs weakens and slides east off the coast allowing the low to end up where it ends up!

No , a NEG  tilted trough coming out of the SW  in the face of a SE ridge   really has to cut  don`t think that's where the argument is , is where does the primary die and where does it secondary .

 

You know what dude I thought you were referring to the midweek storm ,

Just checked the thread ,

 

THIS DOESNT CUT . This will come to arctic wave and ride to the BM .

G o with the ensembles , I was talking about the midweek storm , my bad

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No you cannot say that because if our storm cuts on Wednesday it strengthens the PV and 50/50 block and suppresses the next storm further south for us to get into good snows

right - it will DEFINITELY strengthen the PV....its smart to speak in definitives when you have been watching maps for maybe 4 months.

 

Give me one reason why it will? Do you even know why? What will keep the PV in place? Why wouldnt it just rotate up to greenland or shift back west?

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The low is able to cut because the high pressure that is at 1043mbs weakens and slides east off the coast allowing the low to end up where it ends up!

not really - both are a result of other factors.

 

its like, why does a pitcher have a high ERA but a low WHIP?...many factors behind the scenes. good k/bb ratio but he is a fly ball pitcher and gives up many HR's....maybe his BAPIP is higher than norm.

 

The hP slides east because there is nothing to hold it in place. hence the +NAO...

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Geez....everyone relax. Fact is, if every storm we were negative about panned out as negatively as many of us once thought....we wouldn't have gotten many of the snowstorms that we did. Something I'm sure will come for us in the next week and a half in the form of a significant snowstorm. I'm sure every system will not cut

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right - it will DEFINITELY strengthen the PV....its smart to speak in definitives when you have been watching maps for maybe 4 months.

 

Give me one reason why it will? Do you even know why? What will keep the PV in place? Why wouldnt it just rotate up to greenland or shift back west?

There is a cross polar flow massive -EPO, 50/50 block helps keep cold air locked in similar to PDII, also it makes sense that when the cutter moves up the next disturbance will be shunted further south for us to get snow due to the baroclinic zone further southf204.gif76.15.76.220.29.22.14.16.gif

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Okay. I should mention that the PV that's responsible for the midweek storm to cut with be over Southern Canada, but this time the SE Ridge will be more suppressed and there could be plenty of room for amplification. I wouldn't worry too much about it cutting. The reason for this because the trough will undercut the PV and it'll take advantage of the room that it has before it runs into a blocking HP. Could prove to be an interesting week.

Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk

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No , a NEG  tilted trough coming out of the SW  in the face of a SE ridge   really has to cut  don`t think that's where the argument is , is where does the primary die and where does it secondary .

 

You know what dude I thought you were referring to the midweek storm ,

Just checked the thread ,

 

THIS DOESNT CUT . This will come to arctic wave and ride to the BM .

G o with the ensembles , I was talking about the midweek st

 

Lets face it ace grew up in the snow drought era of the 70's and 80's so thats why he is negative lol and he is traumatized, young snow weenies prosper

more in the 80's....i wish i was a bit older so i would have remembered feb 78 a little better

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not really - both are a result of other factors.

 

its like, why does a pitcher have a high ERA but a low WHIP?...many factors behind the scenes. good k/bb ratio but he is a fly ball pitcher and gives up many HR's....maybe his BAPIP is higher than norm.

 

The hP slides east because there is nothing to hold it in place. hence the +NAO...

Ah now I see why you re all in a huff , I was doing 3 things  this is all over 1 OP run lol .  Haven`t you been doing this a long time .

Sat storm will come out of the gulf and run to the BM ,

The  GFS is just rushing the warm air through the middle of the country because it sees a  neg PNA  . it loves to do it .

check the ensembles

The trough is strong enough it will force this down thru the GULF

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Ah now I see why you re all in a huff , I was doing 3 things  this is all over 1 OP run lol .  Haven`t you been doing this a long time .

Sat storm will come out of the gulf and run to the BM ,

The  GFS is just rushing the warm air through the middle of the country because it sees a  neg PNA  . it loves to do it .

check the ensembles

The trough is strong enough it will force this down thru the GULF

i disagree.....the upper air features need drastic alteration.

 

Last night EC at 240 was EXACTLY what you want to see....

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what? open up the kocin book. 50 pct on +nao? WRONG.

 

From 1950-2000 only SIX of THIRTY KU storms had a +NAO.....some had the NAO going positive through the storm but not leading up to it

 

Also, of those 6, FOUR tainted in and around the NYC area

Correct.

 

From Volume 1 of the Kocin-Uccellini book, p.32:

 

Of the 30 significant snowstorm cases..., 22 occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly in its negative phase. Five cases occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly positive. Of these 22 cases, 10 occurred during a period when the negative phase of the NAO was weakening or becoming positive...

 

Of the 30 near-miss cases..., 16 or slightly more than half of the cases occurred during distinct periods during which the NAO was in a  negative mode, while 9 occurred during a positive mode. However, 14 of 30 occurred during periods when the negative phase of the NAO was either weakening or becoming positive.

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Correct.

 

From Volume 1 of the Kocin-Uccelini book, p.32:

 

Of the 30 significant snowstorm cases..., 22 occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly in its negative phase. Five cases occurred during periods when the NAO was clearly positive. Of these 22 cases, 10 occurred during a period when the negative phase of the NAO was weakening or becoming positive...

 

Of the 30 near-miss cases..., 16 or slightly more than half of the cases occurred during distinct periods during which the NAO was in a  negative mode, while 9 occurred during a positive mode. However, 14 of 30 occurred during periods when the negative phase of the NAO was either weakening or becoming positive.

 

Thank you, Don!

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Here's my thinking....if the setup was so great last night and so terrible now, what exactly happened in a matter of hours that changed the outcome ad set it in stone now ? Just a point to ponder. Nothing's done yet

WHO said it was great? Those that are forcing it to be. It is NOT a great set up.

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I am teenage and I posted the 18z GEFS ensembles for the 8th and PDII in reference to the massive 50/50 low keeping HP locked in the Northeast, would love some meteorologists input, learning here

there is NO 50/50 on the maps you posted. 50/50 lows remain in that position leading up to the storm. They create a confluent flow north of us that locks in cold air. hP cells remain in place and cant slide east. The 50/50 is able to anchor itself in position because of high latitude blocking to its NE (-NAO).....that is why only 5 KU storms through 2000 had a +nao and 4 of those tainted here...for our latitude a -NAO is more important than anything else...it is dumb luck to get a snow storm in a +nao

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there is NO 50/50 on the maps you posted. 50/50 lows remain in that position leading up to the storm. They create a confluent flow north of us that locks in cold air. hP cells remain in place and cant slide east. The 50/50 is able to anchor itself in position because of high latitude blocking to its NE (-NAO).....that is why only 5 KU storms through 2000 had a +nao and 4 of those tainted here...for our latitude a -NAO is more important than anything else...it is dumb luck to get a snow storm in a +nao

If you look at the 500mb mean there is a 50/50 low predominantly in that areatest8.gif

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right on cue - the 0Z GFS has no block, no 50/50 and the storm is an exact repeat of weds....even the Mets around here are gung ho about these two systems...I dont get it. Never ever in my 15 years of doing this have experienced mets touted a -pna/+nao as a pattern that can produce...can the -epo be that influential to the pattern??

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P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif

P6_GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

I knew an output like this was going to happen. The trough axis is more West than usual, so therefore the storm will cut before running into the block over SE Canada and it will redevelop off the coast. If the block pushes further south, then a scenario like this will occur 200 miles further south.

Sent from my HTC PH39100

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right on cue - the 0Z GFS has no block, no 50/50 and the storm is an exact repeat of weds....even the Mets around here are gung ho about these two systems...I dont get it. Never ever in my 15 years of doing this have experienced mets touted a -pna/+nao as a pattern that can produce...can the -epo be that influential to the pattern??

Look at Dec 2013, 8.6" in NYC, Feb 1994

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right on cue - the 0Z GFS has no block, no 50/50 and the storm is an exact repeat of weds....even the Mets around here are gung ho about these two systems...I dont get it. Never ever in my 15 years of doing this have experienced mets touted a -pna/+nao as a pattern that can produce...can the -epo be that influential to the pattern??

It was in December.

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Look at Dec 2013, 8.6" in NYC, Feb 1994

dude - you think those are the only 2 times that happened???? What about ENTIRE winters that had these patterns???? Winters that had less than 10" for the entire season. Like I said, I will book your 8 team parlays any day

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when you want to put in your 8-team parlays I will book them as well

Lol. I was just as surprised as you how dec turned out. That -EPO trolled us all.

I'm

Not if this time around the shorter wavelengths allow things to amplify a bit more as compared to December.

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Lol. I was just as surprised as you how dec turned out. That -EPO trolled us all.

I'm

Not if this time around the shorter wavelengths allow things to amplify a bit more as compared to December.

thats what I am saying - these kids see it once and they think its going to always repeat.

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