IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What interesting is that the GFS has next week's storm starting Tuesday Night. The ECMWF has it starting on V Day. Which one is which? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 very strange evolution on the day 6.5-7 system on the GFS. slow mover too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There are a lot of shortwaves and disturbances in this flow with plentiful cold air to the north and transient blocking on almost every model. A moderate snowstorm may be delayed for a variety of reasons but I would be shocked if we were completely denied a few more good chances before any pattern change. The GFS has a brief west coast ridge spike around Day 3-4 which will enhance potential around Days 5-7 on this run. as long as it stays cold enough it will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 96-108 hour threat could very easily turn into a 4-6" event throughout the area if the modeled evolution aloft is correct. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The best part of this run is yet another lively threat next week. The worst part of this run is I need some mother loving sleep. I agree. Especially about the lack of sleep part lol. I have lurked on this board for some time and spent most of time following the "other" forum. I have enjoyed following these storms here over the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Maybe the storm on the 12th is the big one, it's been on the gfs for a while now, but it's likely not the next storm we'll get. If anything it'll be the second or third storm (if Saturday materializes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mt. Holly not holding back in their briefing package and rightfully so: Our next potential storm system is late Saturday into Sunday. This is the infamous storm hyped by social media & Internet a week ago as bringing 30+ inches of snow. It was nonsense then; its nonsense now. and later It was the antithesis of public service when the 30 inch snowstorm graphic was posted & hyped last week. It continues to be the antithesis of public service. • Yesterday, we continued to receive more inquiries about the ‘weekend storm’ from the general public vs. the very real threat of the major ice storm that was almost upon us. • These calls often involved those who were worried about travel/meeting plans involving friends & family. This is all needless worry imposed upon the public by some very thoughtless behavior. Do not reinforce that thoughtless behavior by spreading the rumor. It was nonsense then; its nonsense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 18z GEFS has the norlun event for Feb. 9-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think people are pulling the trigger so quickly because all of our friends have been asking us "So what's this I hear about 30" of snow on sunday." ALL BLEEPING WEEK. I'm about to pull the trigger on some of my friends' sources before I pull the trigger on this storm ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 18z GEFS has the norlun event for Feb. 9-10th. 2-3 members blow it up into a pretty nice event - member 9 looks similar to what it was showing a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 18z GEFS has the norlun event for Feb. 9-10th. What does norlun mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Where as the last 2 storms heaviest axis was from Philly to NYC , the heaviest axis with Sunday nite into Monday is prob NYC to Boston If the EURO and GFS are next week its DC to Boston . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What does norlun mean?A Norlun trough is also known as an inverted trough, as it extends NW from a surface area of low pressure. The "Norlun" name comes from two meteorologists named Steve Nogueira and Weir Lundstedt, who began to study this new weather phenomena in the early 1990's after two surprise snowstorms dumped huge, unexpected snow totals in New England. A trough in weather terminology is a weak disturbance in our atmosphere, with air that rapidly rises and produces clouds and precipitation. In the Norlun trough, air rapidly rises in the atmosphere in instability because of vorticity advection. A Norlun trough extends westward from an area of developing low pressure offshore, that creates an upward motion with air in the atmosphere. This then combines with cold air aloft and moisture from the ocean and can create very narrow, but very intense bands of snow that extend NW from the low offshore. These bands of snow can produce snowfall rates of 2" to as much as 4" per hour in the most intense bands. Norlun troughs have a history of overproducing on snowfall. Often times weather outlets only predict a few inches of snow, and over a foot can fall; which is because these trough's are VERY difficult to forecast- where they set up can make all the difference! One area may receive 12" of new snow, while somewhere a few miles west or east may only see light snow. The cutoff from heavy snow to nothing is very dramatic. Where the trough sets up, and determining whether or not the trough will stay stationary are the two reasons why these weather phenomena are so difficult to forecast. ________________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A Norlun trough is also known as an inverted trough, as it extends NW from a surface area of low pressure. The "Norlun" name comes from two meteorologists named Steve Nogueira and Weir Lundstedt, who began to study this new weather phenomena in the early 1990's after two surprise snowstorms dumped huge, unexpected snow totals in New England. A trough in weather terminology is a weak disturbance in our atmosphere, with air that rapidly rises and produces clouds and precipitation. In the Norlun trough, air rapidly rises in the atmosphere in instability because of vorticity advection. A Norlun trough extends westward from an area of developing low pressure offshore, that creates an upward motion with air in the atmosphere. This then combines with cold air aloft and moisture from the ocean and can create very narrow, but very intense bands of snow that extend NW from the low offshore. These bands of snow can produce snowfall rates of 2" to as much as 4" per hour in the most intense bands. Norlun troughs have a history of overproducing on snowfall. Often times weather outlets only predict a few inches of snow, and over a foot can fall; which is because these trough's are VERY difficult to forecast- where they set up can make all the difference! One area may receive 12" of new snow, while somewhere a few miles west or east may only see light snow. The cutoff from heavy snow to nothing is very dramatic. Where the trough sets up, and determining whether or not the trough will stay stationary are the two reasons why these weather phenomena are so difficult to forecast. ________________ Well that sure is a very clear, descriptive answer, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well that sure is a very clear, descriptive answer, thank you. It is almost like he was waiting for the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Euro ensembles are pretty impressive for the 144 hour event which is now showing up on the GFS. There is a ton of overrunning precipitation and a surface low which tracks from the TN Valley to OBX and then to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Euro ensembles are pretty impressive for the 144 hour event which is now showing up on the GFS. There is a ton of overrunning precipitation and a surface low which tracks from the TN Valley to OBX and then to the benchmark. Yeah but we learned our lesson for the upcoming system with regard to the LR. I think it's interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think people are throwing around the NORLUN term a bit too loosely. You're looking at an elongated synoptic surface low with diffuse energy. True NORLUN troughs are closer to the mesoscale and tend to focus lots of energy and moisture into a narrow corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think people are throwing around the NORLUN term a bit too loosely. You're looking at an elongated synoptic surface low with diffuse energy. True NORLUN troughs are closer to the mesoscale and tend to focus lots of energy and moisture into a narrow corridor. And they almost never happen in NJ. We did have one last March I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Upton just issued a statement like Mt Holly: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1 NWS not happy with news outlets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well that sure is a very clear, descriptive answer, thank you. It is almost like he was waiting for the question Either we've outed Noah Bergren (the author of that Norlun description) or BrooklynSnow needs to learn to link to his sources... http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20130120what_is_a_norlun_trough A more detailed description is provided in the link below, by Matt Noyes and at the end of that article is a link to the original paper by Lunstedt. Enjoy. I love the intenet, lol. http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Either we've outed Noah Bergren (the author of that Norlun description) or BrooklynSnow needs to learn to link to his sources... http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20130120what_is_a_norlun_trough A more detailed description is provided in the link below, by Matt Noyes and at the end of that article is a link to the original paper by Lunstedt. Enjoy. I love the intenet, lol. http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Sorry I forgot to cite my source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 For reference, this is a sfc analysis from February 19, 1993, one of two case study events in Lundstedt's paper on the phenomenon. There are very specific criteria as to what constitutes a NORLUN trough. I suppose you can't rule out one at some point this weekend, but you also can't pinpoint one using baggy contours on a global model ensemble mean graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Either we've outed Noah Bergren (the author of that Norlun description) or BrooklynSnow needs to learn to link to his sources... http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20130120what_is_a_norlun_trough A more detailed description is provided in the link below, by Matt Noyes and at the end of that article is a link to the original paper by Lunstedt. Enjoy. I love the intenet, lol. http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Good read,thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1/8/2011 was a norlun event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1/8/2011 was a norlun event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 How is the Sunday/Monday potential event even a norlun? Sorry but I don't really see it, the precip field as shown by the gfs is quite broad and almost resembles a CCB as it gets past us. Norluns are very localized and nearly impossible to identify in this time range, plus they almost always affect those to the N&E/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Norlun troughs have mid-level instability. 18z GFS Soundings are unstable for FOK. L57 lapse rates 6.9 C/km and TTs 51, with a narrow band off moderate snow over Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 A Norlun trough is also known as an inverted trough, as it extends NW from a surface area of low pressure. The "Norlun" name comes from two meteorologists named Steve Nogueira and Weir Lundstedt, who began to study this new weather phenomena in the early 1990's after two surprise snowstorms dumped huge, unexpected snow totals in New England. A trough in weather terminology is a weak disturbance in our atmosphere, with air that rapidly rises and produces clouds and precipitation. In the Norlun trough, air rapidly rises in the atmosphere in instability because of vorticity advection. A Norlun trough extends westward from an area of developing low pressure offshore, that creates an upward motion with air in the atmosphere. This then combines with cold air aloft and moisture from the ocean and can create very narrow, but very intense bands of snow that extend NW from the low offshore. These bands of snow can produce snowfall rates of 2" to as much as 4" per hour in the most intense bands. Norlun troughs have a history of overproducing on snowfall. Often times weather outlets only predict a few inches of snow, and over a foot can fall; which is because these trough's are VERY difficult to forecast- where they set up can make all the difference! One area may receive 12" of new snow, while somewhere a few miles west or east may only see light snow. The cutoff from heavy snow to nothing is very dramatic. Where the trough sets up, and determining whether or not the trough will stay stationary are the two reasons why these weather phenomena are so difficult to forecast. ________________ Couple years ago there was a swath of 20-30" totals that fell from putnam and dutchess county through litchfield county in CT. Never saw anything like it before. The rest of the area did pretty good as well, but nothing like those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 00Z NAM out to 36 hours............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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