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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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As someone who has followed these boards for years, and weather also, in terms of this winter...these subtle changes for the better in the 18z suite, seem to be the beginning of the seasonal trend of bringing back a storm...4 days away, it just seems like in 2 days I am gonna be hearing "see I told you models lose the storm then bring it back etc" - however, seeing that I am not meteorologically savvy, if were that close according to some to seeing this storm possible...why are some on here writing it off completely? 

 

Has there ever been a a situation where the models screw up a storm even within 48 hrs and it ends up being a monster? only thing I can think of is January 2000....just seems the trigger is really being pulled quickly on this one.

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well thats interesting what the 18z GFS is trying to do. Flatter initially, and the 2 streams we've been watching miss the phase such as the EURO and earlier GFS runs have been showing. But around 84hrs, there's either some leftover vorticity over tennessee or its some type of phantom sw, (very weak lok). but the leftover Northern stream tries interacting with that. pops a broad LP area/open wave of what looks to be over running by hour 96. (light snow showes/flurriesr over the area from the aforementioned northern strean by 12z sunday).... then by 102, an area of qpf from DC-NYC shows up. 

105- broad & weak SLP shows up over NJ,, still .1-.25" qpf blob over the area...Precip moves out by 111. INteresting evolution there
leftover trough looks sharper and more consolidated.
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The GFS is even less amplified with the late weekend northern stream shortwave. It is a shame since the southernmost vorticity is ready to phase.

would like to interject something worth noting. our past two storms in January both had wimpy N/S shortwaves only to be modeled more aggressive in digging as we got closer. don't know if that will pertain to this threat but I am keeping it in the back of my mind john

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The weekend into early next week threat is not "done" at all. The prior wave 72-78 hour is on it's deathbed as far as potential for being anything of significance.

 

Funny thing is, this event actually stole the main show's thunder, originally it was supposed to be part of the main low that was ejected east. 

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GFS has a 1-3/2-4 type event early mon morning

its more then that its a solid 0.50 + qpf event - 5 + inches all snow in the metro - not bad for starters 4 + days away also 6 + inch and 12 + inch events are not common around here especially multiple times a winter we have been over achieving this winter so far with the 6 plus events

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020518/gfs_apcpn_us_35.png

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The follow-up wave late in the weekend is our best shot at a storm. It wouldn't take a lot of amplifying for it to spin up a significant enough low near the NJ coast and give us a nice area of snow. There's still the off chance that the two waves can be close enough to each other that they interact and spin up a storm as well. The chances here aren't dead by any means. If we're relying just on the first wave, I think that will be difficult to amplify enough for much snow this far north. But this situation will likely continue to change over the next 24-48 hours. I highly doubt we're seeing the final outcome on a storm(s) 72-96 hours out.

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It feels immoral to read this thread just a couple hours after clearing 9"+ of new snow. That has to be a sin. :) Not sure if anybody mentioned this but Lee Goldberg said the obvious, a couple different pieces of energy over the weekend looking to produce mood/nuisance snows, but he doesn't rule out a more consolidated cyclone. More optimistic than I would have put it but he's the expert. He did, however, say he is watching the middle of next week for a potential significant event.

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As someone who has followed these boards for years, and weather also, in terms of this winter...these subtle changes for the better in the 18z suite, seem to be the beginning of the seasonal trend of bringing back a storm...4 days away, it just seems like in 2 days I am gonna be hearing "see I told you models lose the storm then bring it back etc" - however, seeing that I am not meteorologically savvy, if were that close according to some to seeing this storm possible...why are some on here writing it off completely? 

 

Has there ever been a a situation where the models screw up a storm even within 48 hrs and it ends up being a monster? only thing I can think of is January 2000....just seems the trigger is really being pulled quickly on this one.

I think people are pulling the trigger so quickly because all of our friends have been asking us "So what's this I hear about 30" of snow on sunday." ALL BLEEPING WEEK. I'm about to pull the trigger on some of my friends' sources before I pull the trigger on this storm 

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We're pretty much gonna get snow no matter what happens, but perhaps the lead wave can get sheared out and the main focus goes to what happens on Monday. That was after all when the models were showing a huge MECS/HECS. There's going to be tremendous variability with the models because there's several energetic pieces being ejected eastward and any one of them could blow up into something significant. 

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well thats interesting what the 18z GFS is trying to do. Flatter initially, and the 2 streams we've been watching miss the phase such as the EURO and earlier GFS runs have been showing. But around 84hrs, there's either some leftover vorticity over tennessee or its some type of phantom sw, (very weak lok). but the leftover Northern stream tries interacting with that. pops a broad LP area/open wave of what looks to be over running by hour 96. (light snow showes/flurriesr over the area from the aforementioned northern strean by 12z sunday).... then by 102, an area of qpf from DC-NYC shows up. 

105- broad & weak SLP shows up over NJ,, still .1-.25" qpf blob over the area...Precip moves out by 111. INteresting evolution there

leftover trough looks sharper and more consolidated.

 

Some 24-hour qpf figures (2/9 6z through 2/10 6z):

 

BDR: 0.37"

EWR: 0.34"

HPN: 0.37"

ISP: 0.37"

NYC: 0.35"

PHL: 0.40"

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There are a lot of shortwaves and disturbances in this flow with plentiful cold air to the north and transient blocking on almost every model. A moderate snowstorm may be delayed for a variety of reasons but I would be shocked if we were completely denied a few more good chances before any pattern change. 

 

The GFS has a brief west coast ridge spike around Day 3-4 which will enhance potential around Days 5-7 on this run. 

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