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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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if the spacing of these shortwaves is a bit closer, this is heading up the coast. 

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I wouldn't call off the chance for something significant for another day or two out of this. I think the major/apocalyptic scenarios being painted a few days ago are done, but one of these troughs approaching us sharpens and digs, and we could have ourselves a storm.

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I wouldn't call off the chance for something significant for another day or two out of this. I think the major/apocalyptic scenarios being painted a few days ago are done, but one of these troughs approaching us sharpens and digs, and we could have ourselves a storm.

I consider "moderate" 4-8"... I probably should have used the word "significant". In terms of climo 4-8" is pretty significant for us.

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Why does every time the models don't show a storm anymore..and then it shows one for the future.. some people start saying "we may need to sacrifice" one for the other. the models were loving sunday.. why should we believe them for the period late next week? 

 

Because people on here for some reason attach anthropomorphic qualities to computer modeling.

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The more negative PNA than forecast didn't allow the ridge out west to build enough

for a big wound up storm here this weekend. Monday's negative PNA event wasn't

amplified enough to cut. But the storm today was a little too amplified so we ran

into P-Type issues. The big wound up storm the models were showing a few days

ago is exceedingly rare to pull off during a PNA around -1.

 

Today less ridging to west with strung out flow

 

 

Monday stronger western ridging and more focused energy Northeast

 

 

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Do you some of you realize how close you are to a phase here at 66 hours ?   " THIS IS OVER '  " NO CHANCE " NEED A MAJOR CHANGE "  ONTO THE NEXT " , That`s not great analysis guys .

 

We are in a pattern where A . these have come W all year  , B they have had a tendency to sharpen  up and deepen inside 72 hours   C Non of our 6- 10 and 8 -12 s this year started out remotely close to this . 

 

Let this get inside 72 hours before even worrying . We dont get wire to wire snowstorm runs, you guys are a little

too quick to dismiss this ( it doesnt have to be a blockbuster , and may not be ) But you have let this play  out . 

Agreed, but it goes both ways.  Countless posts by wishcasters saying things like "I'm sure it's going to dig more," or "I'm certain the trend to the NW will continue," or "toss that horrible run of ___ - must be convective feedback."  They simply repeat phrases they've heard the pros say (often pertaining to different setups) and look only for the data/model runs that support snow and dismiss all else. Both approaches are annoying. 

 

I much prefer a reasoned, balanced analysis, noting the things that look good for snow, as well as the reasons why snow might not happen.  And I absolutely hate absolutism (lol, see what I did there?), wherein people talk about "locks" or "whiffs" when we're days out and knowing the high degree of uncertainty associated with chaotic systems like the weather and the far from perfect models we use to try to use to predict that weather. 

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The trend this year has been for storms to push north late so this is definitely not a done deal....  I like to wait for our current storm to reach 50/50 low location and see what the models are seeing then...  it's been a busy pattern and everything effects the next system.   

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Another good pro reminding us to not dismiss the weekend threat - Mike Masco is pretty good, although he's largely commenting for the DC-Balt-Philly area, but obviously if a system brings snow to those places, there's a decent chance the snow makes it to the NYC metro region, whereas a miss for them is certainly a miss for us.  The point is more his analysis of the pattern and why it's too early to dismiss a decent storm for Sunday. 

 

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/a-weekend-storm-shouldnt-be-written-off

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The trend this year has been for storms to push north late so this is definitely not a done deal....  I like to wait for our current storm to reach 50/50 low location and see what the models are seeing then...  it's been a busy pattern and everything effects the next system.   

 

The door is still open for a small to moderate event here this wekeend, but the big potential event the models were show a few days ago is gone.

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It probably  snows  Sunday ,But if its light moderate or significant remains to be seen  . There should be enough space on the EC  that when a SLP  is at OBX  it prob corrects N and W  like many other have this year .

This talk about sacrificing storms is lost on me as 1 piece of a complex atmosphere  offers you a better scenario 10 - 12 days down the road .

No one that's been writing with any seriousness here  has made the claim this weekend has to be big but now many have  decided that if the models print out only  a moderate snow its failed and we should now look to the day 10  because that looks " better " . 

 

Yeh looking up a mountain when you`re on ski`s doesn't look that bad  but once off the lift everything changes .

Everything looks great in the LR -  stuff gets washed out from a distance  , as you get closer you start to realize a piece is missing  here tomorrow a piece is missing there . ITS CALLED THE LR FOR A REASON -   the verification scores are feeble . Models love to bundle energy on the east coast in its day 10 - 15 .so its common that you see this .  Who wouldn't want the 12z  Euro to verify - 3 snowstorms next week in 4 days , but its prob just not sure which SW to key on , so its locks in on all of them .But will correct as we get closer

 

So it should snow this weekend around here IMO  , and if its 4 or 14 you will not know until Friday . Common sense should tell you , if a SLP is being seen by all the models at OBX in this  type of  winter , and the modeling for the most part is only a step away from a big solution , if OP after OP and Ens are Ens are mere misses in this type of winter  , the focus has to be on Sun not day 10 IMHO.

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Agree on that... 

 

The big 980's benchmark buster some of the models were showing a few days ago would have been a rarity

for a -1 PNA. I would be curious to see what percentage of 12" or greater events at NYC since 1950 occurred 

with a PNA pushing -1?

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The door is still open for a small to moderate event here this wekeend, but the big potential event the models were show a few days ago is gone.

 

I think the door is closing fairly rapidly. The modeled confluence is too strong to allow that vort to amplify. We need to rely on the second piece of energy to come in more amplified. 

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The low tracks further offshore and not much of an inverted trough thanks to the northern stream crapping out. If the northern stream was showing that same closed off super amped 500mb look that it had two days ago, with that southern stream, we would have been in business I believe.

It was so agonizingly close at HR 60. :P

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The low tracks further offshore and not much of an inverted trough thanks to the northern stream crapping out. If the northern stream was showing that same closed off super amped 500mb look that it had two days ago, with that southern stream, we would have been in business I believe.

That said this storm still deserves to be watched. Its not over yet as mother nature has showed us this year (not wishcasting stating seasonal trends) not saying its going to happen just giving an educated opinion
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