+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you dont believe in model trends, look at March 2001, December 2010, 1996, 2003, and both January events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Let's see what the 18z NAM shows. If this is just as suppressed as the rest of the guidance at this range it's a good sign that this isn't going to trend in a more favorable direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you dont believe in model trends, look at March 2001, December 2010, 1996, 2003, and both January events.. Quick put the disclaimer for the 2001,2010,1996 and 2003 in there before you get flamed for referencing them by they're trends not power lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z CRAS completely shears out the first wave and focuses on a stronger shortwave coming in behind it. Yes the one that could have given us a bomb on Monday if the first storm skips OTS fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z CRAS completely shears out the first wave and focuses on a stronger shortwave coming in behind it. Yes the one that could still give us a bomb on Monday if the first storm skips OTS fast enough. Fixed yank. 12Z CRAS reference, times are getting tough lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Im leaning towards the Euro currently as the GFS has a tendency to overdo the trough in the mid range. More times than not, the Euro wins this hand. We are looking at a 1000+ low headed off the NC coast, or there about. If there was cooperation from the atlantic, I would have reason to believe that there could be an exception to the rule. The flow is too fast. Cold and dry is awesome (sarcasm)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I have seen all of those storms as well. The feb 78 storm had times when the visibility was near 0. Number 1 on my list Likewise. Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1. Not really even that close. Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Fixed yank. 12Z CRAS reference, times are getting tough lol Well the CRAS can be useful. If the GFS or Euro looks anything like the CRAS you can pretty much guarantee that both are WRONG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well the CRAS can be useful. If the GFS or Euro looks anything like the CRAS you can pretty much guarantee that both are WRONG Truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Euro ensembles are out, the mean looks like the OP. All modeling is pretty much in agreement on us seeing a light to moderate snowfall with the inverted trough on late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In December 2010 we had a similar setup with a strong shortwave escaping eastward just days before the blizzard. Earthlight mentioned that we might need to sacrifice that storm for a better opportunity a few days later. Perhaps something similar might happen. The models are loving the period late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Likewise. Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1. Not really even that close. Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Likewise. Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1. Not really even that close. Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Thanks, the timing of the height of the storm is just how I remembered. I agree, It's not really close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Why does every time the models don't show a storm anymore..and then it shows one for the future.. some people start saying "we may need to sacrifice" one for the other. the models were loving sunday.. why should we believe them for the period late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Euro ensembles are definitely juiced for the 12th. The mean tracks a strong low through the TN Valley and then off the VA coast. The entire eastern seaboard is juiced during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Why does every time the models don't show a storm anymore..and then it shows one for the future.. some people start saying "we may need to sacrifice" one for the other. the models were loving sunday.. why should we believe them for the period late next week? Because sometimes when you have a pattern like this the ingredients don't always come together, and then the piece of energy behind it has an opportunity. The Euro ensembles are about as beefed up as they have been all winter with the middle of next week. DC to Boston Blizzard on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In December 2010 we had a similar setup with a strong shortwave escaping eastward just days before the blizzard. Earthlight mentioned that we might need to sacrifice that storm for a better opportunity a few days later. Perhaps something similar might happen. The models are loving the period late next week. If I had a nickel for every time I heard that last sentence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Euro ensembles are out, the mean looks like the OP. All modeling is pretty much in agreement on us seeing a light to moderate snowfall with the inverted trough on late Saturday night into Sunday morning. I think that's really our best shot here. I don't hold out a lot of hope for the lead vort producing a lot, but we'll see since those have had a tendency to trend north this year and become more potent. We want the follow-up wave to dig and go negative tilt near us-that could make for a heavy area of snow that extends from NJ through New England. A broad trough that just shows an inverted trough could just as easily be nothing or some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The ensemble mean has a major storm signal for the middle to late next week. Wouldn't surprise me if the control run pushed out another one of its BECS snow total maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Let me also point out that the ECMWF 12z OP did have a major storm a long the eastern seaboard during the same time frame. A little bit sloppy, but a big coastal that develops down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The ensemble mean has a major storm signal for the middle to late next week. Wouldn't surprise me if the control run pushed out another one of its BECS snow total maps. Just like we sacrificed the Super bowl storm for the wave the next day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS likes this threat as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The models have trended strongly towards ejecting the Pac energy in several pieces. So the big upper level low which swung from the Pac NW into the SW US and then northeastward on the models several days ago no longer exists. Instead it comes out into the flow in several pieces. The good news for us is that there is continued confluence to our north and plenty of cold air. So there will be more chances for snow with these disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just like we sacrificed the Super bowl storm for the wave the next day? No, the storm on Monday was unrelated to the Super Bowl storm. Entirely different synoptically. I think what we had this morning is what was originally showing up in the long range for the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just like we sacrificed the Super bowl storm for the wave the next day? Different scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In December 2010 we had a similar setup with a strong shortwave escaping eastward just days before the blizzard. Earthlight mentioned that we might need to sacrifice that storm for a better opportunity a few days later. Perhaps something similar might happen. The models are loving the period late next week. I remember that one... painful to track Then BDB happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Likewise. Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1. Not really even that close. Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Nice find, those are some wild obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Euro ensembles are definitely juiced for the 12th. The mean tracks a strong low through the TN Valley and then off the VA coast. The entire eastern seaboard is juiced during that time frame. But the models were juiced for this weekends system and guess what when the 12th does not happen the models will be juiced for the next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 if the spacing of these shortwaves is a bit closer, this is heading up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Pattern looks very active. Lots of southern stream involvement. No ridge out west though (looks really flat) but heights south and SW of Greenland look nice. This isn't a pattern for an epic storm but anyone of these vorts can produce a moderate snow here. Only time will tell. Ensembles are your friend for now. Let's see how they handle the players we have going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Boy, the 18z NAM sharpens the trough just as it approaches the coast. Actually reminds me of what the NAM had been showing for this past Monday. In this case the energy is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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