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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Im leaning towards the Euro currently as the GFS has a tendency to overdo the trough in the mid range.  More times than not, the Euro wins this hand.  We are looking at a 1000+ low headed off the NC coast, or there about.  If there was cooperation from the atlantic, I would have reason to believe that there could be an exception to the rule.  The flow is too fast.  Cold and dry is awesome (sarcasm)!!

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I have seen all of those storms as well. The feb 78 storm had times when the visibility was near 0. Number 1 on my list

 

Likewise.  Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1.  Not really even that close. 

 

Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

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In December 2010 we had a similar setup with a strong shortwave escaping eastward just days before the blizzard. Earthlight mentioned that we might need to sacrifice that storm for a better opportunity a few days later. Perhaps something similar might happen. The models are loving the period late next week.

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Likewise.  Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1.  Not really even that close. 

 

Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

 

Likewise.  Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1.  Not really even that close. 

 

Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Thanks, the timing of the height of the storm is just how I remembered. I agree,  It's not really close

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Why does every time the models don't show a storm anymore..and then it shows one for the future.. some people start saying "we may need to sacrifice" one for the other. the models were loving sunday.. why should we believe them for the period late next week? 

Because sometimes when you have a pattern like this the ingredients don't always come together, and then the piece of energy behind it has an opportunity.

 

The Euro ensembles are about as beefed up as they have been all winter with the middle of next week. DC to Boston Blizzard on the mean.

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In December 2010 we had a similar setup with a strong shortwave escaping eastward just days before the blizzard. Earthlight mentioned that we might need to sacrifice that storm for a better opportunity a few days later. Perhaps something similar might happen. The models are loving the period late next week.

 

 

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that last sentence.... :guitar:

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The Euro ensembles are out, the mean looks like the OP. All modeling is pretty much in agreement on us seeing a light to moderate snowfall with the inverted trough on late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

I think that's really our best shot here. I don't hold out a lot of hope for the lead vort producing a lot, but we'll see since those have had a tendency to trend north this year and become more potent. We want the follow-up wave to dig and go negative tilt near us-that could make for a heavy area of snow that extends from NJ through New England. A broad trough that just shows an inverted trough could just as easily be nothing or some snow showers.

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The models have trended strongly towards ejecting the Pac energy in several pieces. So the big upper level low which swung from the Pac NW into the SW US and then northeastward on the models several days ago no longer exists. Instead it comes out into the flow in several pieces.

 

The good news for us is that there is continued confluence to our north and plenty of cold air. So there will be more chances for snow with these disturbances.

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In December 2010 we had a similar setup with a strong shortwave escaping eastward just days before the blizzard. Earthlight mentioned that we might need to sacrifice that storm for a better opportunity a few days later. Perhaps something similar might happen. The models are loving the period late next week.

 

I remember that one... painful to track

 

Then BDB happened  :snowing:

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Likewise.  Last February was awesome, but '78 is still #1.  Not really even that close. 

 

Checkout the observations from ISP in 78, 12 straight hours of whiteout conditions with up to 60 mph wind gusts:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/1978/2/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Nice find, those are some wild obs.

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The Euro ensembles are definitely juiced for the 12th.

 

The mean tracks a strong low through the TN Valley and then off the VA coast. The entire eastern seaboard is juiced during that time frame.

But the models were juiced for this weekends system and guess what when the 12th does not happen the models will be juiced for the next system

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Pattern looks very active. Lots of southern stream involvement. No ridge out west though (looks really flat) but heights south and SW of Greenland look nice. This isn't a pattern for an epic storm but anyone of these vorts can produce a moderate snow here. Only time will tell. Ensembles are your friend for now. Let's see how they handle the players we have going forward.

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