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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Perhaps we won't get a megastorm and instead we'll have to deal with those awful nickel and dime 6-10" storms (yea I know the horror). Expect the snow pack to grow regardless of whether we see smaller storms or much larger ones. I'd be willing to bet the weekend storm grows into a major event though with another possible major event a few days after that. 

You need some 1997-98 or 2001-02 non winter shock therapy.

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I think alot of people want or need to have a HECS in order to put a cap on what has been a great winter already. It may happen and it may not. Alot has to come together to get a 93 or 96 repeat. Heck it could come in mid march like in 93 after winter was already declared over.

Honestly, we have come very close for a MECS/HECS and this time we may actually score one. This is the best setup we have had all winter, so even if D.C. and Philly doesn't get 12"+, NJ/NY and the rest of New England has a pretty good chance for a MECS/HECS.

Sent from my HTC PH39100

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Perhaps we won't get a megastorm and instead we'll have to deal with those awful nickel and dime 6-10" storms (yea I know the horror). Expect the snow pack to grow regardless of whether we see smaller storms or much larger ones. I'd be willing to bet the weekend storm grows into a major event though with another possible major event a few days after that. 

there were no true megabombs in 93-94, the two Feb storms were called mini-blizzards. What we had looked like this winter a  lot. But central NJ had 54in that year IIRC.

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there were no true megabombs in 93-94, the two Feb storms were called mini-blizzards. What we had looked like this winter a  lot. But central NJ had 54in that year IIRC.

 

We got a storm in March in VA that dropped about 2ft.  I couldn't tell you the dynamics of the storm however as it was 1994 and I was 10.

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The 12z ECMWF was still out to sea.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this tick NW closer and closer to the event where eventually NYC and Monmouth county will be in the bullseye ;)

I would like to add that I have no scientific basis for this statement, but it has happened so many times already this season already, the possibility of a more NW track definitely can't be ignored.

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Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this tick NW closer and closer to the event where eventually NYC and Monmouth county will be in the bullseye ;)

I would like to add that I have no scientific basis for this statement, but it has happened so many times already this season already, the possibility of a more NW track definitely can't be ignored.

Also other factors that argue for to come further north than currently progged. SE ridge and also the ridge out in the atlantic that helped the monday storm get north. I have no doubt this will dig more, and also this season northern stream energy strength was underdone as well causing more digging
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Seems to be pretty much done for anything significant for the weekend, but I think a 1-3"/2-4" refresher might be on the table....

You know I'm pretty skeptical usually, but I am not counting this one out yet. It's not WAY out to sea on the euro and even manages to get some precip in....it has a chance if thjngs just change a bit. Unlike, since we're within a few days now, but possible
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I think the SE ridge here is what is preventing this shortwave from really being able to dig and then amplify up the coast. It's still possible that the shortwave digs enough to get it done.

 

 

Also other factors that argue for to come further north than currently progged. SE ridge and also the ridge out in the atlantic that helped the monday storm get north. I have no doubt this will dig more, and also this season northern stream energy strength was underdone as well causing more digging

2 differing opinons about the role of the southeast ridge :axe:  :weenie:

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I think the SE ridge here is what is preventing this shortwave from really being able to dig and then amplify up the coast. It's still possible that the shortwave digs enough to get it done.

The SE ridge is usually why systems to its west become so amplified and dig (strong pressure/temperature gradient) so I don't see how it would prevent that from happening. Didn't we hope for a weaker SE ridge with the storm today so the storm couldn't amplify and cut.

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Do you some of you realize how close you are to a phase here at 66 hours ?   " THIS IS OVER '  " NO CHANCE " NEED A MAJOR CHANGE "  ONTO THE NEXT " , That`s not great analysis guys .

 

We are in a pattern where A . these have come W all year  , B they have had a tendency to sharpen  up and deepen inside 72 hours   C Non of our 6- 10 and 8 -12 s this year started out remotely close to this . 

 

Let this get inside 72 hours before even worrying . We dont get wire to wire snowstorm runs, you guys are a little

too quick to dismiss this ( it doesnt have to be a blockbuster , and may not be ) But you have let this play  out . 

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Do you some of you realize how close you are to a phase here at 66 hours ? " THIS IS OVER ' " NO CHANCE " NEED A MAJOR CHANGE " ONTO THE NEXT " , That`s not great analysis guys .

We are in a pattern where A . these have come W all year , B they have had a tendency to sharpen up and deepen inside 72 hours C Non of our 6- 10 and 8 -12 s this year started out remotely close to this .

Let this get inside 72 hours before even worrying . We dont get wire to wire snowstorm runs, you guys are a little

too quick to dismiss this ( it doesnt have to be a blockbuster , and may not be ) But you have let this play out .

Paul it literallg just missed the phase and the OP run of 12z is def improved over the 0Z ECMWF from this morning. This trended in the right direction for sure no doubt. After further analysis it missed phase by only a matter of hours, if it phased it wouldve showed quite a large system
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Paul it literallg just missed the phase and the OP run of 12z is def improved over the 0Z ECMWF from this morning. This trended in the right direction for sure no doubt.

The GFS  did , the Euro was the same , but lets see what this looks like in 24 hours before you pull the ripcord .

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