+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps we won't get a megastorm and instead we'll have to deal with those awful nickel and dime 6-10" storms (yea I know the horror). Expect the snow pack to grow regardless of whether we see smaller storms or much larger ones. I'd be willing to bet the weekend storm grows into a major event though with another possible major event a few days after that. You need some 1997-98 or 2001-02 non winter shock therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You need some 1997-98 or 2001-02 non winter shock therapy. He's joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A few bombs on the GEFS for late next week. Most of the members show light snow for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yanks....were ready for the top of the first with the euro,throw out the first pitch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think alot of people want or need to have a HECS in order to put a cap on what has been a great winter already. It may happen and it may not. Alot has to come together to get a 93 or 96 repeat. Heck it could come in mid march like in 93 after winter was already declared over.Honestly, we have come very close for a MECS/HECS and this time we may actually score one. This is the best setup we have had all winter, so even if D.C. and Philly doesn't get 12"+, NJ/NY and the rest of New England has a pretty good chance for a MECS/HECS.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps we won't get a megastorm and instead we'll have to deal with those awful nickel and dime 6-10" storms (yea I know the horror). Expect the snow pack to grow regardless of whether we see smaller storms or much larger ones. I'd be willing to bet the weekend storm grows into a major event though with another possible major event a few days after that. there were no true megabombs in 93-94, the two Feb storms were called mini-blizzards. What we had looked like this winter a lot. But central NJ had 54in that year IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 there were no true megabombs in 93-94, the two Feb storms were called mini-blizzards. What we had looked like this winter a lot. But central NJ had 54in that year IIRC. We got a storm in March in VA that dropped about 2ft. I couldn't tell you the dynamics of the storm however as it was 1994 and I was 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z ECMWF was still out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z ECMWF was still out to sea. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this tick NW closer and closer to the event where eventually NYC and Monmouth county will be in the bullseye I would like to add that I have no scientific basis for this statement, but it has happened so many times already this season already, the possibility of a more NW track definitely can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z ECMWF was still out to sea. any improvement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 any improvement? Not really, it looks the same as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this tick NW closer and closer to the event where eventually NYC and Monmouth county will be in the bullseye I would like to add that I have no scientific basis for this statement, but it has happened so many times already this season already, the possibility of a more NW track definitely can't be ignored. Also other factors that argue for to come further north than currently progged. SE ridge and also the ridge out in the atlantic that helped the monday storm get north. I have no doubt this will dig more, and also this season northern stream energy strength was underdone as well causing more digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps the current storm is still interfering with the models for the next event. I think tomorrow's runs should start telling the tale and yes we've seen things change quickly within 72 hrs or less and a more positive NAO still argues against suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not really, it looks the same as 00z. I think by 0z we start getting a better picture lets see what the ens show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the SE ridge here is what is preventing this shortwave from really being able to dig and then amplify up the coast. It's still possible that the shortwave digs enough to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps the current storm is still interfering with the models for the next event. I think tomorrow's runs should start telling the tale and yes we've seen things change quickly within 72 hrs or less and a more positive NAO still argues against suppression. Yea same thinking here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seems to be pretty much done for anything significant for the weekend, but I think a 1-3"/2-4" refresher might be on the table.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seems to be pretty much done for anything significant for the weekend, but I think a 1-3"/2-4" refresher might be on the table....You know I'm pretty skeptical usually, but I am not counting this one out yet. It's not WAY out to sea on the euro and even manages to get some precip in....it has a chance if thjngs just change a bit. Unlike, since we're within a few days now, but possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I would not expect any major changes on the models until the energy comes on shore from the Pacific late in the day tomorrow, meaning that major changes are possible starting with the 00z Friday models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The most interesting part is that it wouldn't take much to get a monster storm. The run to run differences could be staggering if a phase is expected to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the SE ridge here is what is preventing this shortwave from really being able to dig and then amplify up the coast. It's still possible that the shortwave digs enough to get it done. Also other factors that argue for to come further north than currently progged. SE ridge and also the ridge out in the atlantic that helped the monday storm get north. I have no doubt this will dig more, and also this season northern stream energy strength was underdone as well causing more digging 2 differing opinons about the role of the southeast ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I totally preferred to read earthlight's analysis .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 2 differing opinons about the role of the southeast ridge LOL the weenie toss . we differ on this perspective but have our reasons. In going with the seasonal trends and what we've seen this year around the 72 hour mark and getting closer with the N&W trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I would not expect any major changes on the models until the energy comes on shore from the Pacific late in the day tomorrow, meaning that major changes are possible starting with the 00z Friday models. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I totally preferred to read earthlight's analysis .. Or paul (PB GFI) who i expect to chime in on this event after seeing the ECMWF OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I totally preferred to read earthlight's analysis .. or at least someone that knows what they are talking about - in this type of set up need someone that has a degree and or extensive experience very tricky set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the SE ridge here is what is preventing this shortwave from really being able to dig and then amplify up the coast. It's still possible that the shortwave digs enough to get it done. The SE ridge is usually why systems to its west become so amplified and dig (strong pressure/temperature gradient) so I don't see how it would prevent that from happening. Didn't we hope for a weaker SE ridge with the storm today so the storm couldn't amplify and cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Do you some of you realize how close you are to a phase here at 66 hours ? " THIS IS OVER ' " NO CHANCE " NEED A MAJOR CHANGE " ONTO THE NEXT " , That`s not great analysis guys . We are in a pattern where A . these have come W all year , B they have had a tendency to sharpen up and deepen inside 72 hours C Non of our 6- 10 and 8 -12 s this year started out remotely close to this . Let this get inside 72 hours before even worrying . We dont get wire to wire snowstorm runs, you guys are a little too quick to dismiss this ( it doesnt have to be a blockbuster , and may not be ) But you have let this play out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Do you some of you realize how close you are to a phase here at 66 hours ? " THIS IS OVER ' " NO CHANCE " NEED A MAJOR CHANGE " ONTO THE NEXT " , That`s not great analysis guys . We are in a pattern where A . these have come W all year , B they have had a tendency to sharpen up and deepen inside 72 hours C Non of our 6- 10 and 8 -12 s this year started out remotely close to this . Let this get inside 72 hours before even worrying . We dont get wire to wire snowstorm runs, you guys are a little too quick to dismiss this ( it doesnt have to be a blockbuster , and may not be ) But you have let this play out . Paul it literallg just missed the phase and the OP run of 12z is def improved over the 0Z ECMWF from this morning. This trended in the right direction for sure no doubt. After further analysis it missed phase by only a matter of hours, if it phased it wouldve showed quite a large system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Paul it literallg just missed the phase and the OP run of 12z is def improved over the 0Z ECMWF from this morning. This trended in the right direction for sure no doubt. The GFS did , the Euro was the same , but lets see what this looks like in 24 hours before you pull the ripcord . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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