IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Completely disagree, look at both Jan events, those little systems in 12/10 and 12/17, 2/3, they all looked more impressive as we were 48 hours when it trended in our favor, all of the systems "crept up" on us, this one however was consistent in the MR Starting the beginning of February we've seen a lot of long range honking that has been tempered as time goes on. Sure we've had a few storms creep up on us as well. I'm not contesting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 no mets in this discussion for a while now.... all I can ascertain is that there are a lot of shortwaves the next 7-10 days. We will likely get at least bouts of light snow in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I LOVE THIS RUN OF THE GFS. Several scenarios where major storms could spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Let me refresh some people`s memory who wanted to dismiss Mondays system and said , " We should sacrafice this, for the bigger one coming Tuesday " , Those of us ignored that and said it was coming , the result was 6- 10 Philly to NY onto LI . Then the argument that no way Tuesdays ( today`s system ) was gona cut , result SLP to Beckley . Now we are going for 3 in a row inside 7 days ( would be a record on the board ) . " We are lucky Sundays storm is moving out of the way for something bigger " The call . Sundays storm will sharpen up , Should move to the BM IMHO You've been very consistent and informative on your call for this storm and totally agree. The PATTERN supports this storm but the american models in particular are not seeing it correctly. The players on the field look good, the EURO has been the most consistent especially the ensembles still pretty much maintaining the OBX-BM track when the GFS is too late to the party. Keep this in mind also folks that the EURO is known for holding back energy, it is not doing that so it should be a red flag IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Starting the beginning of February we've seen a lot of long range honking that has been tempered as time goes on. Sure we've had a few storms creep up on us as well. I'm not contesting that. We're only 5 days into February. Today's storm hasn't looked like a big snowmaker in like a week so we're really only talking one long term threat that may or may not pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How many times the vort of the trough is deeper and stronger 48hrs before the storm? All winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We're only 5 days into February. Today's storm hasn't looked like a big snowmaker in like a week so we're really only talking one long term threat that may or may not pan out. We have 3 or so chances in the next 7 days for a significant threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Let me refresh some people`s memory who wanted to dismiss Mondays system and said , " We should sacrafice this, for the bigger one coming Tuesday " , Those of us ignored that and said it was coming , the result was 6- 10 Philly to NY onto LI . Then the argument that no way Tuesdays ( today`s system ) was gona cut , result SLP to Beckley . Now we are going for 3 in a row inside 7 days ( would be a record on the board ) . " We are lucky Sundays storm is moving out of the way for something bigger " The call . Sundays storm will sharpen up , Should move to the BM IMHO Other than Earthlight you are the best at analysis. Great work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We're only 5 days into February. Today's storm hasn't looked like a big snowmaker in like a week so we're really only talking one long term threat that may or may not pan out. Well I'm referring to back in January. First the big super bowl storm that didn't pan out. Yes we did have a storm the day after but it was from a completely different system. Today's event first showed up around day 15 on the GFS. I guess the models have been doing a good job in picking out the long range threats. Go back how many days ago and models had todays storm cutting to Toronto with 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Disagree. We have 3 or so chances in the next 7 days for a significant threat. Ok but my point is we haven't had many threats in the long term go bust..and we don't even know the final outcome of the weekend system yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Other than Earthlight you are the best at analysis. Great work. Thanks Ross, I think John, Bluewave ,Eduggs and Don S are way better . There stuff is great . EDIT snowgoose, sorry bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 For the factor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok but my point is we haven't had many threats in the long term go bust..and we don't even know the final outcome of the weekend system yet Yet some people sound like they want to jump ship already because of what? The GFS and models like it lost the storm? Dont forget about the EURO OP/ENS. That still very much have the storm and ens. Mean has it pretty much at the BM. We're how far out? 100 hours or more? We need to just take a chill pill right now and wait for the EURO at 1 which has been by and large the most consistent thus far with this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well I'm referring to back in January. First the big super bowl storm that didn't pan out. Yes we did have a storm the day after but it was from a completely different system. Today's event first showed up around day 15 on the GFS. I guess the models have been doing a good job in picking out the long range threats. Go back how many days ago and models had todays storm cutting to Toronto with 50's. I think that has alot to do with the fact that everyone was aboard the GFS train due to its performance in January and the Euro being in lala land. It kept showing something before the super bowl, during the super bowl and after while the Euro really wasn't on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 For the factor: Somethings gotta give at some point right?! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We have 3 or so chances in the next 7 days for a significant threat. I think we still have an OK chance at some kind of decent system if the GFS were to just dig a little more and slow down/become neg tilt as the backside vort arrives. That would spawn a nice low off the NJ coast and be a good event particularly from PHL northeast. It wouldn't be anything huge but could be a quick 6-12" type deal. But for the huge solutions being shown a couple of days ago, the lead vort would have to weaken dramatically or very quickly exit the stage, and the backside trough would have to dig much more. The blocky appearance north of us is also subsiding, meaning a slow moving bomb is less likely. The GFS often puts too much emphasis on lead vorts so its possible it's overdoing it here, but we will have to watch other models over the next 1-2 days to see how much that second vort can dig and spin up a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z Canadian was just so close to producing a massive storm here on Saturday night and Sunday, that for a moment there I thought it was going to do it. MUCH closer than the prior run. One more step like that and BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z Canadian was just so close to producing a massive storm here on Saturday night and Sunday, that for a moment there I thought it was going to do it. MUCH closer than the prior run. One more step like that and BOOM! It had a late sloppy phase. The 12z GFS wasn't actually that far off but the northern stream was more disjointed than what the GGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The way it's been going I would not be at all surprised if the Sunday event still finds a way to happen, it won't take an impossible adjustment to things to have it occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The way it's been going I would not be at all surprised if the Sunday event still finds a way to happen, it won't take an impossible adjustment to things to have it occur This year storms have been in that north and west trend. So this storm is too far off the coast now, but with the trends it may come closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The way it's been going I would not be at all surprised if the Sunday event still finds a way to happen, it won't take an impossible adjustment to things to have it occur The fact the EURO is still convincing is pretty promising. I just think the GFS is going through its normal routine of losing the storm only to bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It had a late sloppy phase. The 12z GFS wasn't actually that far off but the northern stream was more disjointed than what the GGEM shows. Sloppy phases are not difficult to correct, as you know, and sooo much time to go. The southern vort digging more for Sunday would be nice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yet some people sound like they want to jump ship already because of what? The GFS and models like it lost the storm? Dont forget about the EURO OP/ENS. That still very much have the storm and ens. Mean has it pretty much at the BM. We're how far out? 100 hours or more? We need to just take a chill pill right now and wait for the EURO at 1 which has been by and large the most consistent thus far with this threat Earlier today a met on WWOR dismissed it; since then others are saying not so fast, esp on 1010 and CBS 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GEFS look Norlun, but good luck figuring out the location until a day or two ahead. New England usually can end up doing better than us in this situations, but maybe some of the luck we have been getting this season can help us out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thought this was interesting... Meanwhile, the block is in the process of forming now, bringing one of the better potentials of the year for you guys over the next 7-10 days. Arguably, today was the correlated Archambault "precip loaded" first storm you get as the NAO goes from positive to negative. Is it classic? No... after all, it is a split between the polar vortex field. But it is in the domain that we care about more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thought this was interesting... Nice. I do like our potential now for the next 7-10 days. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps we won't get a megastorm and instead we'll have to deal with those awful nickel and dime 6-10" storms (yea I know the horror). Expect the snow pack to grow regardless of whether we see smaller storms or much larger ones. I'd be willing to bet the weekend storm grows into a major event though with another possible major event a few days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps we won't get a megastorm and instead we'll have to deal with those awful nickel and dime 6-10" storms (yea I know the horror). Expect the snow pack to grow regardless of whether we see smaller storms or much larger ones. I'd be willing to bet the weekend storm grows into a major event though with another possible major event a few days after that. The snowpack up here is well over a foot now and it's holding a lot of water. My guess is somewhere between 2-3" in most spots. Lets hope that we don't end up with a big rainer anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Which storm is that? A suped up version of '00 and '05. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps we won't get a megastorm and instead we'll have to deal with those awful nickel and dime 6-10" storms (yea I know the horror). Expect the snow pack to grow regardless of whether we see smaller storms or much larger ones. I'd be willing to bet the weekend storm grows into a major event though with another possible major event a few days after that. I think alot of people want or need to have a HECS in order to put a cap on what has been a great winter already. It may happen and it may not. Alot has to come together to get a 93 or 96 repeat. Heck it could come in mid march like in 93 after winter was already declared over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.