Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's not a specific storm. I'm not 100% sure how it works but I believe what it's doing is showing what a mean storm would like like based on the top ten analogs. oh ok. looks like a redeveloping miller B, 12/30/00 or 1/22/05ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 96 was big no question! But for those of us here in central Long Island..February 8th-9th 13' "nemo" last year was the most epic snowstorm! 3' of pure cement...people stranded everywhere even on the lie which was shut down for hours! Never before had I seen anything like that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z GFS is already more amped up than the NAM for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Inverted trough type feature w/light snows moving in Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Night and day aloft from 6z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Joe Bastardi used 4/6/1982 as an analog for the 500mb evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Night and day aloft from 6z . Models are going to have a hard time resolving all these features for another day or so, until they are all sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Encouraging run at H5 for sure. Very close to something bigger. As is, a few inches of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The timing is a bit off. If you can get that lead vort to slow down a bit it may allow the follow up wave to phase. I think that has a better chance of happening than it shearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 i thought we don't want a strong first wave - i thought we wanted that to be sheared and weak alllowing room for the second wave to amplify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it does seem we should be watching that first wave... Just like, oh, the last 3 sneak attacks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Encouraging run at H5 for sure. Very close to something bigger. Shocked it dug that fast , did it just 6 hours ,thought it was gona be a day before we saw it adjust that far south with the NSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Encouraging run at H5 for sure. Very close to something bigger. As is, a few inches of powder. It has to dig significantly more for there to be a widespread system. Inverted troughs are notorious for failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I thought this run showed slight improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It has to dig significantly more for there to be a widespread system. Inverted troughs are notorious for failing. The vort digging in the around our latitude as us favor NE more, but in a fast west-east flow it has worked like 4/6/1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 96 was big no question! But for those of us here in central Long Island..February 8th-9th 13' "nemo" last year was the most epic snowstorm! 3' of pure cement...people stranded everywhere even on the lie which was shut down for hours! Never before had I seen anything like that around here. Yeah, I lived through the 93 Superstorm, the Blizzard of 96, the President's Day II Storm(s), the Boxing Day Storm when I was in Maryland (all gave me between 20 and 29"). Even though PDII technically gave me the most in Annapolis at 29", 96 is no doubt my number 1 storm and still is because everything came together so well. (Lots of snow, single day, ACTUAL blizzard criteria met, heavy snow, massive drifting, everyone knew 1 week in advance, first time I saw military/coast guard on patrol, thunder snow, "snow-tornado" reports, schools closed for 4 days, very cold, very early in the year, etc.. plus people talked about it for years up and down the coast. Since I moved to Long Island, I experienced probably the heaviest snowfall ever - over 33" in less than a day last year - catching lots of people off guard straight from work, the reason being the deformation band stayed over my area the whole time even as it pivoted. But guess what, people 15 miles east and west and south of me got maybe half of that. People showed up to work a couple days later like it was no big deal because they didn't have to shovel 3-5 foot drifts like I did. And if I'm the only one at work who has stories to tell, then it's just a "cool story, bro" to everyone else instead of "omg yeah, that storm was incredible! i could walk onto the roof of my one story home from all the snow in that storm! etc..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The EURO should be interesting. GFS certainly did take a step in the right direction, one could argue that was a noted positive trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS at 129 hours looks GREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Check out the GFS at 132, pretty interesting setup. As for the weekend storm, if we can get that vort to be a little sharper we could manage something moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah I agree, the setup looks better again for later next week. Unfortunately we've had a trend of storms looking more impressive in the mid to long range only falling apart as time goes on. Today's event was modeled to be much stronger at days 7-10 than it actually turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Good trends. 0z run is gonna be a big one tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Luckily the first storm for Sunday moves out of the way and sets the table for what it looked like we would have been getting this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Luckily the first storm for Sunday moves out of the way and sets the table for what it looked like we would have been getting this weekend. Not even close to giving up on this one yet yank. The EURO ensembles still consistently tout this threat. The GFS and american models are just waffling right now IMO. It did improve today at 12Z so that should be noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS at 129 hours looks GREAT. Maybe we have to sacrifice the weekend storm for something bigger in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Good trends. 0z run is gonna be a big one tonight I think it will be til at least tomorrow night or Friday before we close in on a definitive answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The weekend storm actually forms a nice 50/5 after that the northern branch races ahead of the southern one, but if they could phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah I agree, the setup looks better again for later next week. Unfortunately we've had a trend of storms looking more impressive in the mid to long range only falling apart as time goes on. Today's event was modeled to be much stronger at days 7-10 than it actually turned out. Completely disagree, look at both Jan events, those little systems in 12/10 and 12/17, 2/3, they all looked more impressive as we were 48 hours when it trended in our favor, all of the systems "crept up" on us, this one however was consistent in the MR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Completely disagree, look at both Jan events, those little systems in 12/10 and 12/17, 2/3, they all looked more impressive as we were 48 hours when it trended in our favor, all of the systems "crept up" on us, this one however was consistent in the MR Really want to hear earthlights input on this system still 100+ hours out and people sounding like they want to give up over model runs instead of looking at 500mb pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The weekend storm actually forms a nice 50/5 after that the northern branch races ahead of the southern one, but if they could phase... wasn't this current storm progged to form a nice 50/50 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Let me refresh some people`s memory who wanted to dismiss Mondays system and said , " We should sacrafice this, for the bigger one coming Tuesday " , Those of us ignored that and said it was coming , the result was 6- 10 Philly to NY onto LI . Then the argument that no way Tuesdays ( today`s system ) was gona cut , result SLP to Beckley . Now we are going for 3 in a row inside 7 days ( would be a record on the board ) . " We are lucky Sundays storm is moving out of the way for something bigger " The call . Sundays storm will sharpen up , Should move to the BM IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.