IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREF shows a NW trend already at the end of the run when you compare 87 hrs on previous run with 81 hrs on this new run.Considering the SREFs performance as of late, this event looks pretty nice.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Paul for the record i was referring to it from a standpoint of how the models are acting. Losing it at this time and bringing it back to its original wound up solutions. Still think this is a Miller A coming up the coast from the GOM I agree. I think there's a slp off OBX and it e or near the BM. Me personally never liken anything to 78 93 96 10 because they are in there own class and are anomalies IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I agree. I think there's a slp off OBX and it e or near the BM. Me personally never liken anything to 78 93 96 10 because they are in there own class and are anomalies IMOTotally agree thats why 96' is number 2 its a rarity and LOTS of things have to go right to replicate a storm of that magnitudeAlso like to say seasonal trends have been for the northern stream to be more energetic causing it to dig more and come N&W. that alone should still have peoples interests peaked P.S. 12z NAM initiated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Neither are still posted. Todays analogs focus on 2-12 (and there r a few good ones there btw). As for the afd the old one was overwritten. Dont remember if it was an afd or a disco from hpc or cpc but I assure u they mentioned the analogue popping up and were comparing the the bomb the euro had a few days back. Sorry for the confusion. Point being, not every miller A B /coastal is a 96'. I've just heard it being thrown around wayyy too much the last few days. There still could be a storm, but I believe a blockbuster is off the table. The flatter PNA being modeled isn't a good trend for a phasing type system that was being modeled a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Totally agree thats why 96' is number 2 its a rarity and LOTS of things have to go right to replicate a storm of that magnitude Also like to say seasonal trends have been for the northern stream to be more energetic causing it to dig more and come N&W. that alone should still have peoples interests peaked P.S. 12z NAM initiated Nah. Outside it's scope Go European and it's ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's going to snow Sunday. But it's not 96. 2010 wasn't 96 that should tell you how great 96 was. U just can't use it when speaking about storms. That said. I like Sunday. i hear a staggering amount of accounts of how awesome that storm was in the area.....i lived in central ct at the time and it was a big storm but nothing epic. there really were widespread 24 to 30 inch depths all across the metro area from that event only?? why is central pk so low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nah. Outside it's scope Go European and it's ensembles One key that im going to be looking for today is more northern stream digging that it originally had sunday. Seasonal trends argue for that as we get closer and inherently pull the storm N&W. I.E. monday storm, saturday suppose to be mostly light and look how we ended up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 i hear a staggering amount of accounts of how awesome that storm was in the area.....i lived in central ct at the time and it was a big storm but nothing epic. there really were widespread 24 to 30 inch depths all across the metro area from that event only?? why is central pk so low? It covered a very large swath of the east coast, and was the biggest storm in decades, hands down. Many people had never seen anything like it, the two biggest prior storms were in Feb 83 and Feb 78....the most recent storms of FEB 94 and the March 93 superstorm were minor in this area in comparison, 93 being more south and west with the big snows.Moreover, nothing has been as big since, Feb 2003 was close but less snow, and all of the 2009-11 storms were smaller in geographic scope. Boxing Day gave me more IMBY than 96, but was largely confined to within 30 miles from the coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 500mb setup looked like 96' for about five minutes. One run of the GFS had a closed 500mb low over the Ohio Valley with the arctic high to the north and plenty of amplification. I think we still see a SECS but it's not going to live up to all the media hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Models started shearing that out yesterday and EURO OP/ensembles have went back to one LP system coming out of the GOM. Today should start showing some trends N&W if seasonal trends continue which they have the entire season. Keep in mind also that the post New Years storm had the lead vort problem and still produced for most of us. But there was also a brief window there where there was some ridging over Baffin Bay, so we need that in place too. But if the follow-up vort remains as potent as advertised, there should be a nice storm for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 500mb setup looked like 96' for about five minutes. One run of the GFS had a closed 500mb low over the Ohio Valley with the arctic high to the north and plenty of amplification. I think we still see a SECS but it's not going to live up to all the media hype. The snow/ice we have on the ground now also isn't going anywhere before then. If we have a nice storm, we could have widespread over 12" and maybe even 18" snow depths by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 6Z NAM already showing a good bit more digging by 6z friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12Z* NAM already showing a good bit more digging by 6z friday Fixed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The snow/ice we have on the ground now also isn't going anywhere before then. If we have a nice storm, we could have widespread over 12" and maybe even 18" snow depths by Monday. right now there is no indication that the potential weekend storm will a SECS or greater - until and IF we start seeing guidance that shows some consistency there is no reason to be comparing this coming potential to any of the great storms of the past - the hype of this storm the last few days has been ridiculous - people on the street saying we are going to get 2 feet because they heard that from some media outlet............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 6Z NAM already showing a good bit more digging by 6z friday Thats not the Sun storm , thats the 1 st piece , that always gets sheared out , that piece will prob wind up further N as we get closer in time , but thats not our storm I told you dont look to the NAM for anything at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Keep in mind also that the post New Years storm had the lead vort problem and still produced for most of us. But there was also a brief window there where there was some ridging over Baffin Bay, so we need that in place too. But if the follow-up vort remains as potent as advertised, there should be a nice storm for somebody. The lead vort problem is connected to flat PNA and weaker blocking, shown on models overnight. We still have to watch for this all to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thats not the Sun storm , thats the 1 st piece , that always gets sheared out , that piece will prob wind up further N as we get closer in time , but thats not our storm I told you dont look to the NAM for anything at 84 hours Im trying to brush up on some of my PbP skills since i have SV and may actually know what im talking about paul or atleast give the illiusion of it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Today's storm was originally expected to blow up and move into the 50/50 position. Now that's not the case. It's just another ingredient that was taken off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 6Z NAM already showing a good bit more digging by 6z friday We don't want digging with that. That's the lead vort that could cause the follow up storm to shear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The next best thing to the lead vort getting sheared out would be for it to rapidly exist stage right. This would need to pull off a comeback almost as big as Boxing Day at this point to reach MECS levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We don't want digging with that. That's the lead vort that could cause the follow up storm to shear out. I think the really big storm idea is off the table but a nice snow storm like we have had many times this winter isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some General Info>>>GEFS is showing precip. activity for the following dates: Feb. 9-10, Feb.13-15, Feb. 18. The 850mb. and 2mT during these same periods range from marginal to good both ways, as of 0Z output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you keep looking at the american models , YOU`RE LOST you`re goin to keep seeing the SLP escape east . The SE ridge is there ,the biggest argument 4 days ago was that today`s storm had to cut becuse the SE ridge was there . ITS GOING TO BE THERE SUN AND THE GFS IS MISSING IT . Thats youre mechanism to turn the storm . I cant believe pp still get suckered into OP runs and miss whats at 500MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you keep looking at the american models , YOU`RE LOST you`re goin to keep seeing the SLP escape east . The SE ridge is there ,the biggest argument 4 days ago was that today`s storm had to cut becuse the SE ridge was there . ITS GOING TO BE THERE SUN AND THE GFS IS MISSING IT . Thats youre mechanism to turn the storm . I cant believe pp still get suckered into OP runs and miss whats at 500MB I agree there will be a storm just not the epic solutions we saw at day 9 and 10 for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I agree there will be a storm just not the epic solutions we saw at day 9 and 10 for this threat. I never understood people calling this threat a slam dunk a few days ago. Sure the ingredients were their for a few days but the entire synoptic evolution has shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This analog looks interesting. #5 on the list. 2/8/79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Also I hate to post it but a lot of the top ten analogs were ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Check out the #1 analog at 120 hours over the east from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Check out the #1 analog at 120 hours over the east from last night. Which storm is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Which storm is that? It's not a specific storm. I'm not 100% sure how it works but I believe what it's doing is showing what a mean storm would like like based on the top ten analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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