IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NWS Upton: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTH...AGAIN PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW...DO NOT FORESEE MAJOR DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE FACT THAT A NORTHWESTWARD AND STRONGER SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED WITH RECENT STORMS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DO INDEED MAINTAIN A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST. DO EXPECT TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WITHIN 72 TO 84 HOURS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 NWS Upton: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTH...AGAIN PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW...DO NOT FORESEE MAJOR DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE FACT THAT A NORTHWESTWARD AND STRONGER SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED WITH RECENT STORMS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DO INDEED MAINTAIN A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST. DO EXPECT TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WITHIN 72 TO 84 HOURS OUT. Same thing said before 96' know what happen then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you look the 500mb heights without the anomalies, the ridge over Husdon Bay looks weaker on the Euro Ensembles. The heights out West are also flatter. The pattern looks less then ideal for a major east coast storm. But I wouldn't write this off yet. We've seen almost every east coast storm trend that was progged offshore, trend back NW and stronger in the short term. Due to significant changes in the 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Same thing said before 96' know what happen thenSeems like your setting yourself up for disappointment.. Too much false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seems like your setting yourself up for disappointment.. Too much false hope. Nope not setting up for dissapointment. If it happens awesome if not oh well still a great winter. Just pointing out the models seem to change things around in this time frame with big threats like when they previously had big hits to MOST of the time revert back to the same original amped solutions. No guarantee it happens here but the pattern is certainly supportive of something of size on the EC over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 6z gfs is a disjointed mess. Go with the euro ens means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 6z gfs is a disjointed mess. Go with the euro ens means. Today 12z we should start seeing some kind of correction. The euro ensemble mean was little east but was still near BM but big storm signal was still there very much and its been very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you look the 500mb heights without the anomalies, the ridge over Husdon Bay looks weaker on the Euro Ensembles. The heights out West are also flatter. The pattern looks less then ideal for a major east coast storm. But I wouldn't write this off yet. We've seen almost every east coast storm trend that was progged offshore, trend back NW and stronger in the short term. Due to significant changes in the 500mb pattern. Right-this has been a progressive pattern this winter but the NW trend has also been especially pronounced this year. If anything we might want a more suppressed track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Today 12z we should start seeing some kind of correction. The euro ensemble mean was little east but was still near BM but big storm signal was still there very much and its been very consistentexactly....most consistent would be the most intelligent choice right now. Unlear if the euro is being too slow kicking energy east which is common. I guess we'll know in a few days. Maybe 12z helps us out a bit. Big storm signal still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 exactly....most consistent would be the most intelligent choice right now. Unlear if the euro is being too slow kicking energy east which is common. I guess we'll know in a few days. Maybe 12z helps us out a bit. Big storm signal still there.Believe it or not the EURO hasnt been really doing that which in turn tells me its seeing something in this storm that the GFS is having trouble comprehending ( a la 6z sheared out mess ). 0Z EURO still had the storm on the OP but was S&E important to note however it still has the system deepening just OTS and not sheared out but the ens. Mean has it still just east of the BM. To me i dont know how much more convincing you want to figure out what model to follow currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Believe it or not the EURO hasnt been really doing that which in turn tells me its seeing something in this storm that the GFS is having trouble comprehending ( a la 6z sheared out mess ).the valentine's storm looks good on the 6z gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 the valentine's storm looks good on the 6z gfs lol Meh too far in advance right now i just want to see this storm come to fruition as it is nowhere near worth to give up on as some amatuers will do due to taking models for gospel and not knowing what they're notoriously known for doing at this range most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Meh too far in advance right now i just want to see this storm come to fruition as it is nowhere near worth to give up on as some amatuers will do due to taking models for gospel and not knowing what they're notoriously known for doing at this range most of the timehey Red, why would anyone give up on this system? Lots of good teleconnections and analogues. Any storm with an early January 96 as an analogue needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 hey Red, why would anyone give up on this system? Lots of good teleconnections and analogues. Any storm with an early January 96 as an analogue needs to be watched. Absolutely, what i was doing was merely trying to give reason to not give up what models say to less seasoned members that arent firmiliar with model error in this time frame. The storm threat isnt going anywhere and having 96' as one of the analogs isnt exactly handed out to storm threats easily so that should raise some eyebrows. Not very often we see a #2 NESIS analog on a storm. Reminder 3-4 days out 96' was dubbed the southern slider by TWC, rest is history. 12z model runs and on should be telling as we should start seeing some better sampling of this storm setting up a 50/50. Furthermore the northern stream component to this storm going with seasonal trends has been to dig more and be more energetic as its been with our two bigger storms this year, I.E. more digging and more amped solutions followed. This will be of importance going forward in this forecast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Absolutely, what i was doing was merely trying to give reason to not give up what models say to less seasoned members that arent firmiliar with model error in this time frame. The storm threat isnt going anywhere and having 96' as one of the analogs isnt exactly handed out to storm threats easily so that should raise some eyebrows. Not very often we see a #2 NESIS analog on a storm. Reminder 3-4 days out 96' was dubbed the southern slider by TWC, rest is history. 12z model runs and on should be telling as we should start seeing some better sampling of this storm setting up a 50/50. Furthermore the northern stream component to this storm going with seasonal trends has been to dig more and be more energetic as its been with our two bigger storms this year, I.E. more digging and more amped solutions followed. This will be of importance going forward in this forecast as well I completely and thoroughly agree with your assessment of this year featuring more digging and amplification than modeled. Has happened what 5 or 6 times already? If we get to Friday and things look bleak maybe it would be time to think about moving on....but right now we r really early in the game with plenty of time for adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I completely and thoroughly agree with your assessment of this year featuring more digging and amplification than modeled. Has happened what 5 or 6 times already? If we get to Friday and things look bleak maybe it would be time to think about moving on....but right now we r really early in the game with plenty of time for adjustment.Lets also not forget to mention the EPO isnt as strongly negative so that in theory would bring the SE ridge and also that ridge out in the atlantic into play as well. It looks flatter right now because of what the models are making it out to be, im going with seasonal trends that allow for more northern stream digging as we go on. Oh and lets not forget that lead wave is sheared out on the EURO that prevents the baroclonic zone from bein forced offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That lead wave shearing out is critical in the evolution of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 That lead wave shearing out is critical in the evolution of this system. Lets go back to seasonal trend as the models that focused on that lead wave blowing up instead of that main show ended up being wrong and it was sheared out.....no lead wave deepening=baroclonic zone off SE coast and not OTS. -PNA hurt this system? Absolutely but look up towards that feature in AK, kind of compensates for it pretty nicely id say and when that happens there's a deep trough in the OH valley...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Same thing said before 96' know what happen then Just stop.... Just please stop with the 96' references Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just stop.... Just please stop with the 96' references Umm its being used as an analog comparison to the storm by models and it has weight for comparison. This as one low is a Miller A and 96' was similar. We're not saying its going to be as powerful if it does happen as it is #2 all time on NESIS but it does hold weight for comparison value my friend. Read my posts i was using it to compare to forecasting not saying how its going to deliver like it as that would be foolish at this time but not far fetched. I emphasized it mostly to compare to the same time frame we are in currently a southern storm then OTS which is what it is progged to do on the models now, a similar forecasted outcome at the same time frame. This is an honest unbiased comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just stop.... Just please stop with the 96' referencestell the nws since they referenced it a few days ago in one of their afd's. There r similarities at 500mb whether u wanna believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 tell the nws since they referenced it a few days ago in one of their afd's. There r similarities at 500mb whether u wanna believe it or not. Would like to hear john's (earthlight) thoughts on what me, you and paul stated this morning regarding the pattern and what the models are doing as hes unbiased and has great understanding of the pattern this is for this storm ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Blizzard of 96, had higher heights over Northern Rockies and closed 500mb low over Mississippi River. Guidance doesn't look anything like it, at this time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Blizzard of 96, had higher heights over Northern Rockies and closed 500mb low over Mississippi River. Guidance doesn't look anything like it, at this time: Nope, nothing like it. We have to hope the lead vort weakens over the next couple of days, or that could be what screws the pooch. Unfortunately, lots of vorts are another feature of progressive patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 tell the nws since they referenced it a few days ago in one of their afd's. There r similarities at 500mb whether u wanna believe it or not. Please show me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nope, nothing like it. We have to hope the lead vort weakens over the next couple of days, or that could be what screws the pooch. Unfortunately, lots of vorts are another feature of progressive patterns.Models started shearing that out yesterday and EURO OP/ensembles have went back to one LP system coming out of the GOM.Today should start showing some trends N&W if seasonal trends continue which they have the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's going to snow Sunday. But it's not 96. 2010 wasn't 96 that should tell you how great 96 was. U just can't use it when speaking about storms. That said. I like Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREF shows a NW trend already at the end of the run when you compare 87 hrs on previous run with 81 hrs on this new run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Please show me....Neither are still posted. Todays analogs focus on 2-12 (and there r a few good ones there btw). As for the afd the old one was overwritten. Dont remember if it was an afd or a disco from hpc or cpc but I assure u they mentioned the analogue popping up and were comparing the the bomb the euro had a few days back. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's going to snow Sunday. But it's not 96. 2010 wasn't 96 that should tell you how great 96 was. U just can't use it when speaking about storms. That said. I like Sunday. Paul for the record i was referring to it from a standpoint of how the models are acting. Losing it at this time and bringing it back to its original wound up solutions. Still think this is a Miller A coming up the coast from the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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