ace0927 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's centered the day before the storm. that makes ZERO difference. The players are on the field, there should be quality analogs on that list.... -pna/+nao/se ridge isnt a combo to write home about...yeah, I keep hearing about the -epo, jury is still out if that one index can save a bad other 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why aren't the analogs supportive of this event? I am so confused: what is the url for that site? appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 that makes ZERO difference. The players are on the field, there should be quality analogs on that list.... -pna/+nao/se ridge isnt a combo to write home about...yeah, that makes ZERO difference. The players are on the field, there should be quality analogs on that list.... -pna/+nao/se ridge isnt a combo to write home about...yeah, I keep hearing about the -epo, jury is still out if that one index can save a bad other 3 The jury isn't out. It has happened this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The jury isn't out. It has happened this winter. as opposed to hundreds of times in the past that have produced nothing....i like the odds. Ill be the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have had many times the past several years where we had great setups that didn't deliver. There have also been numerous occasions where the setup was much less than perfect that delivered big storms. I'm all for being doubtful, but most of us have already surpassed our seasonal snowfall totals well before February....so I can't complain one bit. Also, with a wild weather week coming up, it's rather exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 that makes ZERO difference. The players are on the field, there should be quality analogs on that list.... -pna/+nao/se ridge isnt a combo to write home about...yeah, I keep hearing about the -epo, jury is still out if that one index can save a bad other 3 ( Only thing I will give you ) , Data shows systems dropping 10 plus inches at KNYC ( there have only been 32 in 100 plus years ) 50 perc the time the NAO was NEG and 50 per it were POS . The PNA out of those same 32, 75 perc were pos PNA . Here may be one difference with a 4 SD below normal WPO You really build a dam across the pole and the PV is trapped in Canada and yes just like the last time its retrogression or pulse must be well timed on the EC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have had many times the past several years where we had great setups that didn't deliver. There have also been numerous occasions where the setup was much less than perfect that delivered big storms summary even with all the forecasting advances....its a roulette table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z ECMWF ensemble mean loves this threat, but definitely favors southern areas slightly more. at this range, perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Note how all the snow we got this winter so far was without a dominant -NAO (early Jan had a transient block in a neutral NAO dominated pattern tho), all thanks to the -EPO, the pattern you mentioned sounds unfavorable but it happened in Feb 1994, Feb 2013 was in a -PNA The storm after New Year's was greatly helped by the temporary west based block we had. It would be a huge bonus to have that again for these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The storm after New Year's was greatly helped by the temporary west based block we had. It would be a huge bonus to have that again for these threats. Well heights near greenland are expected to rise. The feb 5/6th system could be a 50/50 and also the -EPO helping to lock in the cold air and Hp system over SE canada certainly is going to help, as currently modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 verbatim that hP cell is WAY too far east on the ensemble hr216 forecast for it to stay snow along the coast - useless to discuss this far out...but ill say it again this pattern doesnt favor big snow at our latitude...+nao/-pna is crappy any way you cut it. Significantly better C and N NE It's all about the baroclinic zone starting out over SC and pushing north with the storm. But I have no idea what these progs are going to actually look like when we get closer. It's still too far out, but this run verbatim is all snow with just a little to much suppression since the high is so strong and far south to start out. the 850's this run never get above 0 west of a line from BLM to ISP. But a weaker high with a shift north would mean snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS: It's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS: USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_240.gif It's still there. Yes sir she looks pretty too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Like you bet on your job last year. sometimes people are wrong, but no need to attack them on it when factually what he is saying is much closer to being accurate... no offense, as someone who's lurked for years, I've seen you always optimistic and be burned dozens of times.. so dont call others out unless you can stand by your record, which has been mediocre at best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Storm signal on the 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Storm signal on the 18z GEFS These models seem to be all over this threat. It is exciting for sure to say the least and models as a whole love this period so that is certainly encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html FEB 8th MECS----Major East Coast Storm Weenie Patrol Level Five you got questions?we got answers! just a bit of fun till the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I just want to point out that the system on the 5th doesn't have to be a cutter in order for the follow up system to work out. We need a strong low pressure system out of the first one, that is all. And should we cash in on both, it might rival Washington DC's 2010. No. Completely different setup. We do not have historic block or negative AO that is off the charts. February 2010 is in a class of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No. Completely different setup. We do not have historic block or negative AO that is off the charts. February 2010 is in a class of its own. You do realize I was referring to snowfall totals and not setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS at 192 hrs shows a 1043mb high over us and a disturbance coming out of the SW, do the math, I dont care what it says (sub 1000 into Ohio Valley, lol what?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS at 192 hrs shows a 1043mb high over us and a disturbance coming out of the SW, do the math, I dont care what it says (sub 1000 into Ohio Valley, lol what?) Without blocking this storm can cut too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ( Only thing I will give you ) , Data shows systems dropping 10 plus inches at KNYC ( there have only been 32 in 100 plus years ) 50 perc the time the NAO was NEG and 50 per it were POS . The PNA out of those same 32, 75 perc were pos PNA . Here may be one difference with a 4 SD below normal WPO You really build a dam across the pole and the PV is trapped in Canada and yes just like the last time its retrogression or pulse must be well timed on the EC . what? open up the kocin book. 50 pct on +nao? WRONG. From 1950-2000 only SIX of THIRTY KU storms had a +NAO.....some had the NAO going positive through the storm but not leading up to it Also, of those 6, FOUR tainted in and around the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You do realize I was referring to snowfall totals and not setups? I had 61" from 1-30-10 until 2-10 so it is highly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Without blocking this storm cab cut too. The cutter on Wednesday should move north into the PV and strengthen the 50/50 low, it looked PDII like, dont do a weenie suicide over a GFS OP run, If Euro still shows this then we are on board, Ensembles as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 what? open up the kocin book. 50 pct on +nao? WRONG. From 1950-2000 only SIX of THIRTY KU storms had a +NAO.....some had the NAO going positive through the storm but not leading up to it Also, of those 6, FOUR tainted in and around the NYC area UNC , posted a couple weeks ago the 30 storms at KNYC with 10 inches or more that happened over the last 100 years or so 15 were NEG 14 were POS , If UNC cant find it , I will go back for you . the 31st 2 weeks ago POS NAO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I had 61" from 1-30-10 until 2-10 so it is highly doubtful. Yes, that's what I meant. Thanks sir. There is no way we are getting that this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ace sounds old, you are just mad because you grew up in the snow drought of the 70's and 80's, young snow weenies like me prosper in this era Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 take this to banter Will ask UNC to repost , so you know where it came from . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 UNC , posted a couple weeks ago the 30 storms at KNYC with 10 inches or more that happened over the last 100 years or so 15 were NEG 14 were POS , If UNC cant find it , I will go back for you . the 31st 2 weeks ago POS NAO . ill go by the KU book - no disrespect to unc. Its not just about NYC, i know some of you find that hard to believe....he was probably posting only NYC stats...those arent reflective of the pattern as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 for you, there is potential through may 30th, every single storm. for anyone that understands the maps, they know weds is quickly slipping away....and saturday is following in the same foot steps with the same pattern setup No you cannot say that because if our storm cuts on Wednesday it strengthens the PV and 50/50 block and suppresses the next storm further south for us to get into good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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