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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Yea that is what i am thing too...we will see should have a better idea after tomorrows toms gets out of the way

I keep looking to the Ensembles for 3 things . The continuing building of the POS in Greenland ( there` s you`re confluence so the SLP exits OBX , not AC  and a deeper trough in the Ohio Valley so it will get to the EC as 1 strong SW  and the SE ridge .  Even though its weaker day 5 than it is  now .  its there and  that  may keep it from escaping .

 

IT DOESNT HAVE TO WORK , but that's how its been modeled for the last 10 days . All the players are there .

the GFS is just able to bowl right thru . If the Euro is right that will wind up further S .

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For those who are wondering if this storm is still on the map due to the recent flip flopping… name me ONE big storm that wasn't flip flopping at some point 5 days out? This is a normal model process. All that matters is we still have key ingredients intact and the storm is still on the map! 

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Okay here what we have on the EURO run. Point blank it is S&E and doesnt make the turn. Sunday 00z there is a deepening LP system that exited georgia coastline 12z saturday and after that it punts it OTS and thats that. As far as i can make out this is both the GFS and EURO way in middle range to go S&E only to correct back north. However, this run would've purely been a Miller A bomb had it dug more which the EURO is known to do at this range is to be flat with trough axis hence being kicked OTS. Overall, promising run that wasnt far off from delivering what we saw sunday, a wound up Miller A bomb.

The players are still there and are in pretty good position and im chalking this up to not digging enough when in reality a upper air setup like thar argues for it NOT to escape east like that. This where id want to be 100 hours out as this is not very far from being HUGE. Go to bed no worries i can almost say the ensembles will look better than the OP

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If you go back and see the 132 and the 120 I posted I kept saying watch for this to get deeper

So here is the new 108  , The OP now agrees its one storm of the GOM , the OP is east

The Ensembles are a little as well , Now its just a matter of fine tuning to see if we can get this to the BM .

But this piece is now here .

post-7472-0-53875300-1391588996_thumb.pn

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If you go back and see the 132 and the 120 I posted I kept saying watch for this to get deeper

So here is the new 108 , The OP now agrees its one storm of the GOM , the OP is east

The Ensembles are a little as well , Now its just a matter of fine tuning to see if we can get this to the BM .

But this piece is now here .

Paul personally were sitting pretty. Storms this year have always trended north and our biggest storms have corrected north as well. I expect by today or tommorow with that look its going to be gung-ho i here with a BIG storm
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The 6z GFS IS ALL ALONE , in its interpretation of Northern branch SW coming thru the lakes heading due  East and off Montauk .

 

The European OP is to OBX then ENE , Its Ensembles same  and its Control ( closest to the coast )

Agrees with the CMC, UKMET ( east ) , JMA and the DGEX ,  all have a Northern Branch feature that digs further south  than the GFS

and ALL have a center at OBX .

 

I still like the storm , not every run is going to show a wire to wire snowstorm , but I  like the agreement as to where the SLP is in 4 days .

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Boom. Im stating to feel confident that mother nature has something special and BIG planned this weekend for the east coast paul. Going to be a fun 4 days from here on out!

Its not there yet , Give it another day and see if the OPs adjust the surface and the look .

 Think this is going to be a case where it will have to trend N and W inside 72 hours . No lock , but I like it .

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Its not there yet , Give it another day and see if the OPs adjust the surface and the look .

Think this is going to be a case where it will have to trend N and W inside 72 hours . No lock , but I like it .

Higher heights almost a weak -NAO west based, psuedo 50/50, that GOA feature and also the SE ridge. Its going to be VERY difficult for this to escape east. One thing that helps here as well is we have no strong -NAO that could force it OTS paul

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Boom. Im stating to feel confident that mother nature has something special and BIG planned this weekend for the east coast paul. Going to be a fun 4 days from here on out!

I'm not feeling too confident on this storm. The flow is fast off the pacific and the 2 streams are only partially phasing (even with a weak Davis Straight Block). Anything is possible, but if we had more of a west coast ridge to really help that shortwave amplify, I would feel much more confident.

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I'm not feeling too confident on this storm. The flow is fast off the pacific and the 2 streams are only partially phasing (even with a weak Davis Straight Block). Anything is possible, but if we had more of a west coast ridge to really help that shortwave amplify, I would feel much more confident.

Missing the big picture my friend. You have that humungous GOA feature that argues for a deep trough in the OH valley, psuedo 50/50, higher heights towards greenland that almost acts like a weak -NAO, a powerful ridge off the EC that helped get this storm north and also got to take into account the SE ridge is also having an influence as well. This storm isnt a layup by any means but synoptically its looking pretty good from pattern recognition stand point and not modelology
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