NEXtreme Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 At this point what part of the day would this storm likely start? Would this be a morning, afternoon or likely a nighttime starting point on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Is the potential still their?? Are all the players still on the field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Once the current storm exits stage right...it should be showtime !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yea that is what i am thing too...we will see should have a better idea after tomorrows toms gets out of the way I keep looking to the Ensembles for 3 things . The continuing building of the POS in Greenland ( there` s you`re confluence so the SLP exits OBX , not AC and a deeper trough in the Ohio Valley so it will get to the EC as 1 strong SW and the SE ridge . Even though its weaker day 5 than it is now . its there and that may keep it from escaping . IT DOESNT HAVE TO WORK , but that's how its been modeled for the last 10 days . All the players are there . the GFS is just able to bowl right thru . If the Euro is right that will wind up further S . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS goes nuts with the storm Day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS goes nuts with the storm Day 9-10 It had that storm for at least 5 or 6 runs. I'm gonna need a break after all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It had that storm for at least 5 or 6 runs. I'm gonna need a break after all of this. Maybe by 2/28 we'll have our snow and ice pack to the top of the telephone poles. At this rate we could get there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 00Z GGEM has the storm OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Is the potential still their?? Are all the players still on the field? Yes there is a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 For those who are wondering if this storm is still on the map due to the recent flip flopping… name me ONE big storm that wasn't flip flopping at some point 5 days out? This is a normal model process. All that matters is we still have key ingredients intact and the storm is still on the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone doing the euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Okay here what we have on the EURO run. Point blank it is S&E and doesnt make the turn. Sunday 00z there is a deepening LP system that exited georgia coastline 12z saturday and after that it punts it OTS and thats that. As far as i can make out this is both the GFS and EURO way in middle range to go S&E only to correct back north. However, this run would've purely been a Miller A bomb had it dug more which the EURO is known to do at this range is to be flat with trough axis hence being kicked OTS. Overall, promising run that wasnt far off from delivering what we saw sunday, a wound up Miller A bomb. The players are still there and are in pretty good position and im chalking this up to not digging enough when in reality a upper air setup like thar argues for it NOT to escape east like that. This where id want to be 100 hours out as this is not very far from being HUGE. Go to bed no worries i can almost say the ensembles will look better than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you go back and see the 132 and the 120 I posted I kept saying watch for this to get deeper So here is the new 108 , The OP now agrees its one storm of the GOM , the OP is east The Ensembles are a little as well , Now its just a matter of fine tuning to see if we can get this to the BM . But this piece is now here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nam is very weak with the first piece of energy...that's is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nam is very weak with the first piece of energy...that's is a good sign Local met on WWOR says its a no go, most likely OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you go back and see the 132 and the 120 I posted I kept saying watch for this to get deeper So here is the new 108 , The OP now agrees its one storm of the GOM , the OP is east The Ensembles are a little as well , Now its just a matter of fine tuning to see if we can get this to the BM . But this piece is now here . Paul personally were sitting pretty. Storms this year have always trended north and our biggest storms have corrected north as well. I expect by today or tommorow with that look its going to be gung-ho i here with a BIG storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 6z GFS IS ALL ALONE , in its interpretation of Northern branch SW coming thru the lakes heading due East and off Montauk . The European OP is to OBX then ENE , Its Ensembles same and its Control ( closest to the coast ) Agrees with the CMC, UKMET ( east ) , JMA and the DGEX , all have a Northern Branch feature that digs further south than the GFS and ALL have a center at OBX . I still like the storm , not every run is going to show a wire to wire snowstorm , but I like the agreement as to where the SLP is in 4 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Big signal from the gfs of another storm after this one. It's been showing it for a while, could be more of a pure Miller A. We are in a stormy pattern that's far from over and I agree that the 06z gfs is a mess in how it handles things but that's to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gfs may be out to lunch but that 500 mob pattern on all the guidance just aint gonna get it done. Forgetting the surface you wouldn't look at that. 500mb and scream nj/NYC snowstorm, and it's only 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll just say that there's a reason why all the major models and their ensembles showed a massive storm so far out for several runs. It may not be there now, but it was no coincidence that they all saw something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How about that one 12 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 How about that one 12 hours later Boom. Im stating to feel confident that mother nature has something special and BIG planned this weekend for the east coast paul. Going to be a fun 4 days from here on out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Boom. Im stating to feel confident that mother nature has something special and BIG planned this weekend for the east coast paul. Going to be a fun 4 days from here on out! Its not there yet , Give it another day and see if the OPs adjust the surface and the look . Think this is going to be a case where it will have to trend N and W inside 72 hours . No lock , but I like it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Its not there yet , Give it another day and see if the OPs adjust the surface and the look . Think this is going to be a case where it will have to trend N and W inside 72 hours . No lock , but I like it . Higher heights almost a weak -NAO west based, psuedo 50/50, that GOA feature and also the SE ridge. Its going to be VERY difficult for this to escape east. One thing that helps here as well is we have no strong -NAO that could force it OTS paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 DGEX at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Boom. Im stating to feel confident that mother nature has something special and BIG planned this weekend for the east coast paul. Going to be a fun 4 days from here on out! I'm not feeling too confident on this storm. The flow is fast off the pacific and the 2 streams are only partially phasing (even with a weak Davis Straight Block). Anything is possible, but if we had more of a west coast ridge to really help that shortwave amplify, I would feel much more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm not feeling too confident on this storm. The flow is fast off the pacific and the 2 streams are only partially phasing (even with a weak Davis Straight Block). Anything is possible, but if we had more of a west coast ridge to really help that shortwave amplify, I would feel much more confident.Missing the big picture my friend. You have that humungous GOA feature that argues for a deep trough in the OH valley, psuedo 50/50, higher heights towards greenland that almost acts like a weak -NAO, a powerful ridge off the EC that helped get this storm north and also got to take into account the SE ridge is also having an influence as well. This storm isnt a layup by any means but synoptically its looking pretty good from pattern recognition stand point and not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 DGEX at 192 Doesnt look like it'll make the turn but its to be expected wolf. Btw love to see you back in this thread and look forward to your input on this storm from here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 03Z SREF looks pretty interesting. Instead of the rest of the Guidance having the storm starting the Coastal 100 miles of the SC, it starts the SLP over the SC Coast through HR 75. Also, the H5 looks somewhat better than the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Doesnt look like it'll make the turn but its to be expected wolf. Btw love to see you back in this thread and look forward to your input on this storm from here on out Hypothetically speaking, that has already made the turn and would be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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