REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The entire metro area is now aware of this threat' people are talking about it who haven't any clue, about the weekend superstorm as my kids teachers called it. translation; any snow at all from this system will be hyped beyond all reason, even a 3-6 incher.That person on FB who posted the RPM model didnt help things at all either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 no certainly wont be as cold, but CBS2 new York just said if this storm did hit it was going to be a lot of rain/snow at the coast, If it does hit with full force it probably wont be rain/snow Look who you are dealing with Lonnie Quinn totally unqualified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is turning out to be more like a pure Miller B honestly. There's a couple huge GFS ensembles, some modest hits, and some that barely show a storm. Pretty large spread still, but the days of a large Miller A crawling up the coast are probably diminishing. What is basically happening on all the models today is the initial wave sets up a baroclinic zone, then the main shortwave dives down and bombogenesis occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That person on FB who posted the RPM model didnt help things at all either Its the ones people don't pay attention to that cause the most problems. I'm not adept enough to know what the tea leaves say, but I do know nothing is anywhere near a threat at this stage, and we just as likely don't see anything out of it. But that doesn't get you TV ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The entire metro area is now aware of this threat' people are talking about it who haven't any clue, about the weekend superstorm as my kids teachers called it. translation; any snow at all from this system will be hyped beyond all reason, even a 3-6 incher. The entire metro area is now aware of this threat' people are talking about it who haven't any clue, about the weekend superstorm as my kids teachers called it. translation; any snow at all from this system will be hyped beyond all reason, even a 3-6 incher.A kid put last year s RPM twitter showing 30 inch amounts. My mother in law said. Hey were getting 20 inches Sunday. I just handed the phone to my wife and walked away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A kid put last year s RPM twitter showing 30 inch amounts. My mother in law said. Hey were getting 20 inches Sunday. I just handed the phone to my wife and walked away A kid put last year s RPM twitter showing 30 inch amounts. My mother in law said. Hey were getting 20 inches Sunday. I just handed the phone to my wife and walked away Which is why the totally nonscientific superstitious part of me thinks this ain't gonna be a big deal. And the real threat whenever it comes will be ignored. Which could be next week or 5 years from now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is turning out to be more like a pure Miller B honestly. There's a couple huge GFS ensembles, some modest hits, and some that barely show a storm. Pretty large spread still, but the days of a large Miller A crawling up the coast are probably diminishing. What is basically happening on all the models today is the initial wave sets up a baroclinic zone, then the main shortwave dives down and bombogenesis occurs. I'm not totally convinced about that, maybe a hybrid but I think the focus will turn to the lead disturbance over the SE and that will become our big storm as energy is basically thrown into it (the merge). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm not totally convinced about that, maybe a hybrid but I think the focus will turn to the lead disturbance over the SE and that will become our big storm as energy is basically thrown into it (the merge). Here's a useful link you guys for Multiple vorts Phasing. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here's a useful link you guys for Multiple vorts Phasing. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html Great link, lots of info. The triple phasing of the Superstorm is absolutely incredible, and I wonder if we'll see something like that again in our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There's ALOT of energy and ALOT of moving parts to be sorted out by the models here... Noone should dismiss this storm at this point.To say that model trends have been favorable over the last 24-hours would be to lie, but to say this is dead in the water is just as bad.Even once its in the center of the country, there appears to be a northern stream feature diving into southern Canada that could attempt to phase with this system, and if theres one thing I notice in general is that models tend to underdo the strength of these features diving southward out of Canada so that is something to watch in future runs as well since how much latitude this gains will play a big role in its impact on this system.In the end, the Euro and GFS at 500 mb don't look all that bad to me, quite frankly. The difference between a big storm and a weaker storm well off the coast is how sharp the trough is on the east coast... Its too broad for a big storm at the coast, but the trough is negatively tilted and NOT far away from something much bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 wheres wolf been? would love to hear his thoughts as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not a post since 8:00. I guess the storm pulled a Houdini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not a post since 8:00. I guess the storm pulled a Houdini. What should be discussed with no new model data? Everything has been hashed out ad nauseam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This has no chance. The first SW develops enough to pull the baraclonic zone east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This has no chance. The first SW develops enough to pull the baraclonic zone east. Just noticed that. Looks quite energetic this run. Luckily the GFS is known to pull stuff like this at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What should be discussed with no new model data? Everything has been hashed out ad nauseam. Its 11pm. GFS has been rolling for 30 minutes. I was just surprised to see no posts. And that usually means the threat is dead around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ohoh the mega storm has disappeared. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The shortwave doesn't dig nearly south as we need it to....Still far out don't get too down about this run LOL @ the scared weenies already, the threat is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS looks like it will still try to develop something on the coast with the neg tilted trough coming in. But near the coast this verbatim might be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 More interested in the Euro and even then I don't see much to take seriously until the system comes into the Pacific/West in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00Z GFS @120: Becoming a NE/NNE Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ohh, no reason to be down. Its the prime time to lose it and have it start to come back.. so far, this is textbook. But the amatuer weenies jump prematurely..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS looks like it will still try to develop something on the coast with the neg tilted trough coming in. But near the coast this verbatim might be too warm. Its cold enough this run but weird evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks like a nice coastal development that hits NJ through New England this run. But not the epic storm that would have developed had this dug a little more. That is one mean trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gfs verbatim is a 6-9" storm for us.....someway or another the gfs wants it to snow here with this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gfs verbatim is a 6-9" storm for us.....someway or another the gfs wants it to snow here with this.... That was a very energetic and neg tilted trough. Had it dug more, it would have been a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Soon we'll start seeing the epic solutions again, just wait a bit longer. The gfs is trending stronger with the low just off the SE coast and that'll be key to that very energetic piece coming east and that energy off the SE merging together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro ensembles are from OBX to the BM . I like that track , its been steady with it for 10 days now . As it is the GFS continues to bring accumulating snow here . But this will be further South and will be deeper as we get closer IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro ensembles are from OBX to the BM . I like that track , its been steady with it for 10 days now . As it is the GFS continues to bring accumulating snow here . But this will be further South and will be deeper as we get closer IMO . Yea that is what i am thing too...we will see should have a better idea after tomorrows toms gets out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Soon we'll start seeing the epic solutions again, just wait a bit longer. There are still a lot of options on the table-notice the GFS flopping around like crazy the last few runs. There are still a lot of S/Ws to resolve and until models key in on the right one and at the right intensity, this will keep happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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