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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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The entire metro area is now aware of this threat' people are talking about it who haven't any clue, about the weekend superstorm as my kids teachers called it. translation; any snow at all from this system will be hyped beyond all reason, even a 3-6 incher.

That person on FB who posted the RPM model didnt help things at all either
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no certainly wont be as cold, but CBS2 new York just said if this storm did hit it was going to be a lot of rain/snow at the coast, If it does hit with full force it probably wont be rain/snow :axe:

Look who you are dealing with Lonnie Quinn totally unqualified

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This is turning out to be more like a pure Miller B honestly. There's a couple huge GFS ensembles, some modest hits, and some that barely show a storm. Pretty large spread still, but the days of a large Miller A crawling up the coast are probably diminishing. What is basically happening on all the models today is the initial wave sets up a baroclinic zone, then the main shortwave dives down and bombogenesis occurs. 

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That person on FB who posted the RPM model didnt help things at all either

 Its the ones people don't pay attention to that cause the most problems. I'm not adept enough to know what the tea leaves say, but I do know nothing is anywhere near a threat at this stage, and we just as likely don't see anything out of it. But that doesn't get you TV ratings.

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The entire metro area is now aware of this threat' people are talking about it who haven't any clue, about the weekend superstorm as my kids teachers called it. translation; any snow at all from this system will be hyped beyond all reason, even a 3-6 incher.

The entire metro area is now aware of this threat' people are talking about it who haven't any clue, about the weekend superstorm as my kids teachers called it. translation; any snow at all from this system will be hyped beyond all reason, even a 3-6 incher.

A kid put last year s RPM twitter showing 30 inch amounts.

My mother in law said. Hey were getting 20 inches Sunday.

I just handed the phone to my wife and walked away

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A kid put last year s RPM twitter showing 30 inch amounts.

My mother in law said. Hey were getting 20 inches Sunday.

I just handed the phone to my wife and walked away

 

A kid put last year s RPM twitter showing 30 inch amounts.

My mother in law said. Hey were getting 20 inches Sunday.

I just handed the phone to my wife and walked away

Which is why the totally nonscientific superstitious part of me thinks this ain't gonna be a big deal. And the real threat whenever it comes will be ignored. Which could be next week or 5 years from now.....

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This is turning out to be more like a pure Miller B honestly. There's a couple huge GFS ensembles, some modest hits, and some that barely show a storm. Pretty large spread still, but the days of a large Miller A crawling up the coast are probably diminishing. What is basically happening on all the models today is the initial wave sets up a baroclinic zone, then the main shortwave dives down and bombogenesis occurs. 

I'm not totally convinced about that, maybe a hybrid but I think the focus will turn to the lead disturbance over the SE and that will become our big storm as energy is basically thrown into it (the merge). 

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I'm not totally convinced about that, maybe a hybrid but I think the focus will turn to the lead disturbance over the SE and that will become our big storm as energy is basically thrown into it (the merge). 

 

Here's a useful link you guys for Multiple vorts Phasing. ;)

 

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html

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There's ALOT of energy and ALOT of moving parts to be sorted out by the models here... Noone should dismiss this storm at this point.

To say that model trends have been favorable over the last 24-hours would be to lie, but to say this is dead in the water is just as bad.

Even once its in the center of the country, there appears to be a northern stream feature diving into southern Canada that could attempt to phase with this system, and if theres one thing I notice in general is that models tend to underdo the strength of these features diving southward out of Canada so that is something to watch in future runs as well since how much latitude this gains will play a big role in its impact on this system.

In the end, the Euro and GFS at 500 mb don't look all that bad to me, quite frankly. The difference between a big storm and a weaker storm well off the coast is how sharp the trough is on the east coast... Its too broad for a big storm at the coast, but the trough is negatively tilted and NOT far away from something much bigger.

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Euro ensembles are from OBX to the BM .  I like that track , its been steady with it  for 10 days now .

As it is the GFS continues to bring accumulating snow here .

But this will be further South and will be deeper as we get closer IMO .

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Euro ensembles are from OBX to the BM .  I like that track , its been steady with it  for 10 days now .

As it is the GFS continues to bring accumulating snow here .

But this will be further South and will be deeper as we get closer IMO .

Yea that is what i am thing too...we will see should have a better idea after tomorrows toms gets out of the way

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Soon we'll start seeing the epic solutions again, just wait a bit longer.

There are still a lot of options on the table-notice the GFS flopping around like crazy the last few runs. There are still a lot of S/Ws to resolve and until models key in on the right one and at the right intensity, this will keep happening.

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