PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The upper levels didn't come together this run and yet there's still a decent QPF and coastal SLP signal. That's a really good sign. Odds are always against something big. But at least this time we have a chance for a big one. It wouldn't take much change to the northern stream to spin up a biggie on that 18z GFS prog. Was hoping u would pop on. Glad you're getting ur snow tomrrw what I like about this is you are replacing a ridge position with a trough position and that argues for the best height falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 im going out on a limb here and saying the 0z gfs run will produce some eye candy or the 0z EURO. We may or may not see eye candy runs over the next few days. I just want to keep seeing a potent southern stream s/w and at least a northern stream that is basically favorable to phasing with an offshoot of the PV over central Canada and some ridging north of the Lakes. That keeps the door open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And with a ridge there I think if anything that comes to the east coast can't just escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was hoping u would pop on. Glad you're getting ur snow tomrrw what I like about this is you are replacing a ridge position with a trough position and that argues for the best height falls Thanks. I'm not ready to celebrate until I actually see it dumping out. I've seen things go horribly wrong in the short term too many times to feel completely comfortable. But things are definitely looking good up here. And it's nice to have a mid-range threat to track at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where do you folks get this stuff from? What makes you say that? The setup is still there, but the synoptics for the storm itself has changed drastically in the past 48 hours. Even though it went through a drastic change, it's still showing the potential for a powerful Coastal Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just brutal in here. As bad as accuwx forums. I'm gonna go enjoy tracking tomorrow's event from a last-minute perspective, but something needs to be done to keep in check. It dreadfully hinders valuable analysis. It's not that I'm being a weenie, it's just that I'm closely following any significant changes in the upper levels and determining if it can still produce or not. Obviously, the 18Z GFS is demonstrating that you can still get a Coastal storm with the setup for the storm itself being altered significantly. There are plenty of factors that can screw up the evolution of this storm, but this storm still has a fighting chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's not that I'm being a weenie, it's just that I'm closely following any significant changes in the upper levels and determining if it can still produce or not. Obviously, the 18Z GFS is demonstrating that you can still get a Coastal storm with the setup for the storm itself being altered significantly. There are plenty of factors that can screw up the evolution of this storm, but this storm still has a fighting chance. more than a fighting chance synoptically. by Thursday we may very well be looking at a blockbuster or not, but not a weenie statement and I firmly say that because the pattern looks awesome leading up to this looks very encouraging despite teleconnector support which we haven't really had this winter anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's not that I'm being a weenie, it's just that I'm closely following any significant changes in the upper levels and determining if it can still produce or not. Obviously, the 18Z GFS is demonstrating that you can still get a Coastal storm with the setup for the storm itself being altered significantly. There are plenty of factors that can screw up the evolution of this storm, but this storm still has a fighting chance. Which is fine—we're all keeping an eye on things as we move forward. Things like extrapolating two days out from hour 84 on the 18z NAM, or trying to pin down which guidance suite will start looking good, (forecasting the forecasts, no less!) are what cause misunderstandings and false expectations. Fundamentally, it's probably not even in our best interest to talk about "the storm"; the longwave trough could produce some kind of cyclone at some point over a several-day period, but that's about as concrete a prediction as can be made at this point. Those doomsday runs on Sunday night did a number on our collective perception of this threat/time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 we all know JB can make outlandish calls but if you have weatherbell premium he pretty much says what PB GFI says that the pattern leading up to the sunday/Monday system says BIG storm signal. very good explanation and dismissing this threat prematurely may be biting you in the ass. by the way paul I just got the Weatherbell premium today and it was WELL worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Which is fine—we're all keeping an eye on things as we move forward. Things like extrapolating two days out from hour 84 on the 18z NAM, or trying to pin down which guidance suite will start looking good, (forecasting the forecasts, no less!) are what cause misunderstandings and false expectations. Fundamentally, it's probably not even in our best interest to talk about "the storm"; the longwave trough could produce some kind of cyclone at some point over a several-day period, but that's about as concrete a prediction as can be made at this point. Those doomsday runs on Sunday night did a number on our collective perception of this threat/time period. I deleted my post. Also, I was in Accuweather Forums for several years, so I know what your talking about. I can't be there anymore considering that I got kicked out almost two years ago. Anyway, I'll keep my eye on any other significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The euro ensemble mean suggests that the OP will come west on next run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we all know JB can make outlandish calls but if you have weatherbell premium he pretty much says what PB GFI says that the pattern leading up to the sunday/Monday system says BIG storm signal. very good explanation and dismissing this threat prematurely may be biting you in the ass. by the way paul I just got the Weatherbell premium today and it was WELL worth it Can i ask what the weatherbell cost ? I tinky i wanna invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The euro ensemble mean suggests that the OP will come west on next run or two. MSLP_North32America_120.gif what we are seeing I believe is the tendency for the models to get loopy in the 4-6 day period. we've seen this LOTS of times with most of these threats only to see them come back in a big way. I am not worried whatsoever and think this storm looking at the pattern has a very good chance at coming to fruition. tonight may be a bit early but I expect to start coming back more amped with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why is there something wrong with extrapolating what may happen? As long as it is said as written fact it's no different than any other Interpretation. You can argue a lot of things but the setup is there. Not set in stone but a lot of the ingredients, the important ones cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can i ask what the weatherbell cost ? I tinky i wanna invest. $19.99/month. it is well worth it and the videos from today JB did were very informative and explained the upcoming storm very well. try it you wont be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can also get annually for around $180 Mount holly aft afd AS ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED...ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S GFS AND EC MODELS DEPICT TWO SEPARATE BATCHES OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE W/CENTRAL US TROUGH. SINCE THE BATCHES OF ENERGY ARE SEPARATE...THIS KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A BLOCKBUSTER STORM (AS SOME OF YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT). THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NGT BRINGING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO (MOSTLY) THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ACTIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, THEN A SECOND UPPER TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A RAINS/SNOW MIXTURE...ENDING AS SOME STEADY SNOW EARLY MON MORNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE POPS/WX FOR THE WEEKEND ON THE CONTINUITY `RAILS` AND KEEP HI CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FROM SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THE TWO SYSTEMS DO AGAIN MERGE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM COULD STILL EVOLVE...SO WE ARE STILL ADVISING PARTNERS TO BE PREPARED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL CARRY ON AS BEFORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The potential is really through the roof, and the models do always lose systems in this time frame. They show it 7-10 days out, change it up 6 days out, lose it 4-5 days out, and then get it back. Anyone know why this is ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we all know JB can make outlandish calls but if you have weatherbell premium he pretty much says what PB GFI says that the pattern leading up to the sunday/Monday system says BIG storm signal. very good explanation and dismissing this threat prematurely may be biting you in the ass. by the way paul I just got the Weatherbell premium today and it was WELL worth Good bud , I use em , I like the ewall site ,and im gona use SV as well , they seem to b fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good bud , I use em , I like the ewall site ,and im gona use SV as well , they seem to b fast JB is spot on with his pattern recognition and sounds very confident as do you and explained the GFS/ECMWF tendency to misinterpret outcomes of storms in this time frame. this should really quell some concerns that some have in here of this storm maybe not happening to its fullest potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z GFS ensembles look ALOT better and show a near BM solution at 132 hours. pretty good improvement from 0z/12z suite thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The ensemble track looks something like the early January storm with lower ratios since the airmass wont be as cold. 14010300.gif no certainly wont be as cold, but CBS2 new York just said if this storm did hit it was going to be a lot of rain/snow at the coast, If it does hit with full force it probably wont be rain/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z GFS ensembles look ALOT better and show a near BM solution at 132 hours. pretty good improvement from 0z/12z suite thus far Nice. Thank you for the useful information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice. Thank you for the useful information. its not a classic Miller A that the EURO wants to produce in yesterdays run but it stays one low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 its not a classic Miller A that the EURO wants to produce in yesterdays run but it stays one low. Miller A/B Hybrid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 think I just may stay up for the 0z suite of the GFS tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would lean toward a mostly snow event since the Davis Strait block looks good and there isn't much of a SE Ridge. f132.gif im smart enough to know at this range the major stations are notoriously conservative and rightfully so, I just laughed it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The ensemble track looks something like the early January storm with lower ratios since the airmass wont be as cold. 14010300.gif Think this has a shot to b a little more gassed up. But I agree ratios did the trick there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 think I just may stay up for the 0z suite of the GFS tonight You are 5 days out. Use the ensembles here. An OP run may look nice and then it's Gone at 6z. Once inside 72 hours u look close. Get thru tomorrow. Its is a major ice storm for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You are 5 days out. Use the ensembles here. An OP run may look nice and then it's Gone at 6z. Once inside 72 hours u look close. Get thru tomorrow. Its is a major ice storm for some. You are 5 days out. Use the ensembles here. An OP run may look nice and then it's Gone at 6z. Once inside 72 hours u look close. Get thru tomorrow. Its is a major ice storm for some. You are 5 days out. Use the ensembles here. An OP run may look nice and then it's Gone at 6z. Once inside 72 hours u look close. Get thru tomorrow. Its is a major ice storm for some. The entire metro area is now aware of this threat' people are talking about it who haven't any clue, about the weekend superstorm as my kids teachers called it. translation; any snow at all from this system will be hyped beyond all reason, even a 3-6 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 You are 5 days out. Use the ensembles here. An OP run may look nice and then it's Gone at 6z. Once inside 72 hours u look close. Get thru tomorrow. Its is a major ice storm for some. Like you said i am using ensembles and the 18z ensembles were a real improvement saying to me that there seems to be more amped solutions over OTS solutions paul. Im expecting to start seeing some correction in the orientation of this storm starting tommorow. Think we're starting to get past the blip that was the first wave on saturday, as you aluded to pattern argues for one LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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