IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 read above statement from 18z gfs running now Sounds promising. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 500mb picture on the ensembles is far from perfect however: the western ridge (PNA) is not quite amplified enough, and the axis is not pumping towards Boise which is what you see on many classic storms/KUs. It's more of a broad flat ridge across the western CONUS, which leads to a far more progressive trough. The Davis Strait block/-NAO is also pretty weak compared to classic storms like December 2010. The NAO is fairly neutral as there's some lower heights just to the east of Greenland. I do like the look of the threat but it's not a lock by any means as the western ridge is relatively flat and we lack a classic monster block. I cant put many 500 mb maps vs 2010 , One key I`m looking for is that we get a well timed transient block like the 2 times this year that 12 inches plus fell in this corridor ie Dec 8 - Jan 3 ( both were well timed blocks ) . The mechanism for this to come N is the east coast ridge . This has not been a well teleconnected year and most are at 150 percent of normal of snow . Sure in a perfect world would love a NEG NAO and POS PNA with a great ridge axis , but there`s more at work here . I like that NEG coming thru the slot and bowling balls into that ridge position , I think the greatest height falls will be on the east coast . So I like the threat , No Locks 6 days out , But I like this a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The energy out west looks more energetic so far. Will be on the road in five minutes and unable to finish PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 hour 90 on 18z GFS the lead wave just cant get going so that most likely looks like it wont muck up the flow for sunday/monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Energy at H5 looks energetic and more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Energy at H5 looks energetic and more amplified. was just going to post that. better looking run thus far at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Closes off at H5 hour 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This site has a great free tool for comparing models to previous runs as well as other models. Still not sure this run will yield a blockbuster solution, but it looks somewhat better than 12z. Edit: still a broad low pressure area which festers off the SE coast on Saturday. I'd rather it not be there, but as long as it doesn't get too mature I don't think it would be a dealbreaker as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 hour 90 on 18z GFS the lead wave just cant get going so that most likely looks like it wont muck up the flow for sunday/monday Very important. That lead wave can really screw things up if it gets going/comes north. Lets hope this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Closes off at H5 hour 105. This ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yanks, dont fail us now... LOL the road can wait.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 this run looks a lot better already. looks like a good run hr 123 it certainly is cold enough. 0C line down to VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Closes off at H5 hour 105.but where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @123: Coastal Low and Coastal Runner merging 90 miles east of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @123: Coastal Low and Coastal Runner merging over OBX.sounds like a winner so far....what is happening aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sloppy. two lows? but 500mb looks better than surface, stupid GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 sounds like a winner so far....what is happening aloft? hr 132 from SV maps it just looks weird to me, looks just like a broad center of LP. may be reading it wrong though it sheared out the first wave but it just looks like a broad area of precip that's it...18z GFS toss it lol but it did improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @HR 132: Double Barreled Low ENE of OBX. Moderate Snow over Eastern VA, Delaware and SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the 2 low solution is not that likely. Many details to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This run was not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 the 2 low solution is not that likely. Many details to be worked out. got rid of the first wave but it just goes dumb and loses it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @HR 135 and beyond: Coastal Low is 300 miles ENE of OBX. Moderate Snow going north through SNJ and stalling there for several hours and then the storm moves ENE OTS. NYC mainly gets light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The undercutting vort was very fast on this run. Basically if it were several hours slower, this could've been an excellent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 @HR 135 and beyond: Coastal Low is 300 miles ENE of OBX. Moderate Snow going north through SNJ and stalling there for several hours and then the storm moves ENE OTS. NYC mainly gets light to moderate snow. 18z gfs is known for this stuff so it is not alarming at all. one positive is it did shear out the lead wave but after that it just blew chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Meh... Got to get through tonight/tomorrow first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 got rid of the first wave but it just goes dumb and loses it Not at all. The leading impulse, while shallow, is still very much there and seems to contribute to the messy and diffuse nature of any dominant cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Meh... Got to get through tonight/tomorrow first... yea that too as well. could've been a lot worse but it was an improvement with that first wave. need earthlight or paul to chime in here for run analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z gfs is known for this stuff so it is not alarming at all. one positive is it did shear out the lead wave but after that it just blew chunks The PV to the north of the Hudson Bay just wasn't being assertive enough either. I must say though, this run was a very close call. I must say, overall it's an improvement. The GFS is getting somewhere because the synoptics of the H5 for the storm itself is going through another change, so the GFS has to figure this out and there's lots of time to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The PV to the north of the Hudson Bay just wasn't being assertive enough either. I must say though, this run was a very close call. I must say, overall it's an improvement. The GFS is getting somewhere because the synoptics of the H5 for the storm itself is going through another change, so the GFS has to figure this out and there's lots of time to do so. im going out on a limb here and saying the 0z gfs run will produce some eye candy or the 0z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The upper levels didn't come together this run and yet there's still a decent QPF and coastal SLP signal. That's a really good sign. Odds are always against something big. But at least this time we have a chance for a big one. It wouldn't take much change to the northern stream to spin up a biggie on that 18z GFS prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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