REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Day 9 this threat is far from dead and I agree with you that this storm is probably coming as ONE Miller A and the second wave will not impact this system. your explanation did a great job in explaining what the pattern should produce leading up to sunday/monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All models had the 96 suppressed- remember? I actually remember The Weather Channel days before calling it the "Southern Style" storm. It was supposed to ride south and scoot on out to see. The rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC falling in line with the suppressed OTS track and little to nothing of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I actually remember The Weather Channel days before calling it the "Southern Style" storm. It was supposed to ride south and scoot on out to see. The rest is history. were not going to know what this is going to do with conviction until later tomorrow into Thursday. if I were a betting man that lead vort gets sheared and the sunday/Monday threat happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this threat is far from dead and I agree with you that this storm is probably coming as ONE Miller A and the second wave will not impact this system. your explanation did a great job in explaining what the pattern should produce leading up to sunday/monday What you see are seeing is the models seeing lobes of energy run under the PV in canada and with a SE ridge once to the coast the energy gets bundled . ONE of these are prob right , not multiple IMO The models always see storms in the LR on the EC . I like Sunday . just posted day 9 to break chops . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this threat is far from dead and I agree with you that this storm is probably coming as ONE Miller A and the second wave will not impact this system. your explanation did a great job in explaining what the pattern should produce leading up to sunday/monday No one is saying the threat is dead. But it is severely compromised if that lead vort is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 What you see are seeing is the models seeing lobes of energy run under the PV in canada and with a SE ridge once to the coast the energy gets bundled . ONE of these are prob right , not multiple IMO The models always see storms in the LR on the EC . I like Sunday . just posted day 9 to break chops . plus I would like to add the last time we saw a lead vort this year it was sheared out the primary ended up delivering the goods. this pattern setting up for sunday into Monday just screams something big, not two waves with the second one just sliding out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All season long storms have been lost in this range period only to be brought back 48 hours before the event I see no reason to believe it won't happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 No one is saying the threat is dead. But it is severely compromised if that lead vort is strong. absolutely it would be severely compromised but im hedging my forecast on the models picking up on pertubations in the flow and mucking it up a bit despite what the upper levels in NA argue for. read what paul ( PB GFI ) wrote last page, it brings lots of light to the sunday/Monday storm also on this page as well. paul has been pretty spot on this year with his forecasts of storms and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 absolutely it would be severely compromised but im hedging my forecast on the models picking up on pertubations in the flow and mucking it up a bit despite what the upper levels in NA argue for. read what paul ( PB GFI ) wrote last page, it brings lots of light to the sunday/Monday storm also on this page as well. paul has been pretty spot on this year with his forecasts of storms and cold This lead vort could be typical mid range noise from the models. The gfs ensemble mean scream potential but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro ensembles anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 from Tom over at phillywx.com "The euro ens mean is just like the op pretty much. Just widespread light-mod snows. There is a good bit of spread." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro ensembles anyone? Still a signal on the ensembles but they seem to be keying in on the initial vort like the Op.. Definitely not as aggressive as they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Great when your wife calls and is asking why she is hearing from her associates at work that were getting a massive blizzard this weekend and she asks where they heard this from and they say its all over Facebook. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Great when your wife calls and is asking why she is hearing from her associates at work that were getting a massive blizzard this weekend and she asks where they heard this from and they say its all over Facebook. . But...if its on Facebook it must be true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 But...if its on Facebook it must be true!They can put anything on the internet that isnt true LOL!"My date is here, hes a french model" Best. Commecial. Ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If thats one deep trough it bundles the energy and its one storm Just 12 hours later , look how that is now getting deeper in the Ohio Valley .That trough in the GOA will be reflected in the Ohio Valley , its one storm and its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just 12 hours later , look how that is now getting deeper in the Ohio Valley .That trough in the GOA will be reflected in the Ohio Valley , its one storm and its coming I don't know how much more convincing you can get for something truly big this weekend paul. model swings cant argue for what that shows, expect the two low solution to be worked out of the equation with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM is shearing out the lead vort, good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But...if its on Facebook it must be true! Just brutal this winter, between wxbell-type maps and the "polar vortex" shenanigans. Just three months before we get to start hearing about derechoes and funnel clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just brutal this winter, between wxbell-type maps and the "polar vortex" shenanigans. Just three months before we get to start hearing about derechoes and funnel clouds LOL not on LI, I don't even know what Cape and Instability is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM is shearing out the lead vort, good sign. LOL like clock work the "model waffling" your right it just kicks it OTS, great sign yanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just 12 hours later , look how that is now getting deeper in the Ohio Valley .That trough in the GOA will be reflected in the Ohio Valley , its one storm and its coming I wanted to post this and wasn't sure if I was allowed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Social media sure has changed actually boards like these started it all. Hey maybe it was us in the late ninetys with Conn.blizz and D.T and meteotrade on the TWC boards with legendary hurricane specialist Bob Hope may he R.I.P.The trend is our friend it likes to snow this year IMHO nothing scientific about that. Oh yeah the models wili drive you crazy LOL.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wanted to post this and wasn't sure if I was allowed to. As the NEG gets deeper ,and comes through the Ohio Valley its likely to result in an EC snowstorm . Not gona look at every OP run , better to do that inside 96 hours. Stick with the ensembles 500 MBs will tell you all you need to know . Look for the transient block , that will be you`re confluence . The east coast ridge will force this N as the trough goes NEG and there you go . That ridge was responsible for our last snowstorm 50 over the weekend and sending this primary to PITT , its not leaving . That's the way I see it , Good Luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 As the NEG gets deeper ,and comes through the Ohio Valley its likely to result in an EC snowstorm . Not gona look at every OP run , better to do that inside 96 hours. Stick with the ensembles 500 MBs will tell you all you need to know . Look for the transient block , that will be you`re confluence . The east coast ridge will force this N as the trough goes NEG and there you go . That ridge was responsible for our last snowstorm 50 over the weekend and sending this primary to PITT , its not leaving . That's the way I see it , Good Luck the 18z GFS has initialized, whats promising was the 18z NAM wanted to shear out that lead vort on Saturday so this may be a better solution one can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 As the NEG gets deeper ,and comes through the Ohio Valley its likely to result in an EC snowstorm . Not gona look at every OP run , better to do that inside 96 hours. Stick with the ensembles 500 MBs will tell you all you need to know . Look for the transient block , that will be you`re confluence . The east coast ridge will force the trough NEG and there you go . That ridge was responsible for our last snowstorm 50 over the weekend and sending this primary to PITT , its not leaving . That's the way I see it , Good Luck The 500mb picture on the ensembles is far from perfect however: the western ridge (PNA) is not quite amplified enough, and the axis is not pumping towards Boise which is what you see on many classic storms/KUs. It's more of a broad flat ridge across the western CONUS, which leads to a far more progressive trough. The Davis Strait block/-NAO is also pretty weak compared to classic storms like December 2010. The NAO is fairly neutral as there's some lower heights just to the east of Greenland. I do like the look of the threat but it's not a lock by any means as the western ridge is relatively flat and we lack a classic monster block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 already through 63 looks like that first wave will get sheared out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the 18z GFS has initialized, whats promising was the 18z NAM wanted to shear out that lead vort on Saturday so this may be a better solution one can hope If the NAM is shearing the initial vort, it's literally going against its' over amped bias. Could be the real deal. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the NAM is shearing the initial vort, it's literally going against its' over amped bias. Could be the real deal. Sent from my HTC PH39100 read above statement from 18z gfs running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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