Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The lead wave is stronger on the Euro. Just misses skimming our area at 108 hours. The second wave is right on its heels but likely won't have room to amplify because the first wave will drag the baroclinc zone east.great analysis as always john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A few days ago back in the long range the Euro was focusing on this initial wave. That's partly why the threat originally was slated more for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A few days ago back in the long range the Euro was focusing on this initial wave. That's partly why the threat originally was slated more for Saturday. Better hope it disappears or else you can kiss the bigger threat with phasing potential goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A few days ago back in the long range the Euro was focusing on this initial wave. That's partly why the threat originally was slated more for Saturday. Could it be reverting back to having Saturday as the main event?Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yup, now what I saw on the 12z GEFS ensembles makes perfect sense. Most of them develop this first wave and then the secondary one has no choice but get kicked OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Better hope it disappears or else you can kiss the bigger threat with phasing potential goodbye. I know, it's bad news. Look at the GEFS members at hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Better hope it disappears or else you can kiss the bigger threat with phasing potential goodbye. I was afraid of this, but didn't think it was a big deal. Can we get the first wave to blow up though and still get a good event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that lead wave is way out over in the middle of the pacific right now, we are days away from the evolution of this storm becoming clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that lead wave is way out over in the middle of the pacific right now, we are days away from the evolution of this storm becoming clear But would you be saying that if it was showing an HECS with 30 inches & 60 MPH? Thats the question you have to ask yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's far from a final solution still many more days and model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the first wave was weaker, this second piece of energy would have a lot more room to amplify. Really energetic moving through the MS Valley at 114. I said something close to this and it was called panicking last night. That first wave kills this threat if modeled correctly. Plenty of time for improvements though. Need that first wave out if the way and weaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I posted the Ensembles earlier showing its error and its why the OP Is likely WRONG , the trough in the GOA argues for deeper trough through the OHIO valley , You can see how at 500 mb it splits the trough in the Ohio Valley . Its prob wrong . It will be one strong trough , and that`s the difference . The Euro has corrected all year , it deepened the trough every time this year . IMO its coming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If thats one deep trough it bundles the energy and its one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But would you be saying that if it was showing an HECS with 30 inches & 60 MPH? Thats the question you have to ask yourself. yes, because it would still be 6 days away and we've seen things change many times at this timeframe, for better or for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still very confident we'll get a significant event, but the question will be whether it's more of what we've been seeing (6-10" type storms) or something more of a historic context (12-18"+). The record setting EPO block over the Bering straits and the block over the Davis Straits is extremely impressive and important. We're not gonna get past this period without a significant event, you can bet on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The lead vort on the Euro looked stronger and really developed off the coast. That might have dampened heights but I'm no pro. I know but it seemed stronger this time hence lower heights ahead of the next storm and not letting it amplify enough to come up the coast. I'd like to hear a met comment. Maybe I'm wrong. last night 0z Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yes, because it would still be 6 days away and we've seen things change many times at this timeframe, for better or for worse. On that we agree . If, however, the science of pumping up the 1st low is correct then the science of squashing the 2nd low will also prove to be true. As we always say ' Trend is your friend' but in this case...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 last night 0z Euro runYup. Although I would worry. The lead vort will most likely get sheared out, while the main vort will amplify. The confluence will probably destroy it, if it's weak enough.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I said something close to this and it was called panicking last night. That first wave kills this threat if modeled correctly. Plenty of time for improvements though. Need that first wave out if the way and weaker! That will likely change somewhat by the time the event comes around. Often models emphasize the lead vort too much at this time frame. Remember, the 1/2 storm was supposed to be a dead threat because of a vort ahead of it. The trailing one strengthened and became a significant storm here in the end, although the lead vort was still enough to remove energy from the follow-up vort. This season has been known for progressiveness, so the lead vort idea is possible, but not for suppression. I'm not sure I buy a completely OTS/weak outcome from all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 should read what Paul just wrote, hes been pretty spot on this year and gives good reason not to worry at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 As we know everything is still on the table at this range, we have to wait for toms storm to move on so the models can focus on the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I actually wonder if that energy ahead of it will get fused into the system, which is kind of what the models showed a couple days ago when they were showing a HECS around here. It would support the idea of focusing all the energy into one system due to the deep trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I actually wonder if that energy ahead of it will get fused into the system, which is kind of what the models showed a couple days ago when they were showing a HECS around here. It would support the idea of focusing all the energy into one system due to the deep trough.If the lead vort slows down, then we could get a December 1960 or December 2003 Redux with two vorts rotating and fusing with that scenario.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This may be irrelavant but this morning John mentioned the SREF hinting at something at the end of their run. Maybe they are focusing on saturday as well. Its funny if we revert back to saturday instead of sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I posted the Ensembles earlier showing its error and its why the OP Is likely WRONG , the trough in the GOA argues for deeper trough through the OHIO valley , You can see how at 500 mb it splits the trough in the Ohio Valley . Its prob wrong . It will be one strong trough , and that`s the difference . The Euro has corrected all year , it deepened the trough every time this year . IMO its coming . This year the euro just hasnt been its usual self. I was thinking with this particular evolution it would have a better handle on things with a block, but there is still a lot of spread with its ensembles. Tomorrow nights 0z euro will have to the first one really with good data. If there is a lot of spread then, well, welcome to 2014. Without a reliable king euro this winter has been tough especially for non mets like me. In my own mind the gfs and euro Runs from 12z were divergent, but not light appears apart either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It looks like on this setup will develop into a huge storm sometime between Saturday and Wednesday ! Just when it seems like it won't, something shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This may be irrelavant but this morning John mentioned the SREF hinting at something at the end of their run. Maybe they are focusing on saturday as well. Its funny if we revert back to saturday instead of sunday.imo that is where we are headed based on trends this winter. Potentially a secs on saturday...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's total chaos right now in the upper levels. Lots of different shortwaves swirling around vortexes and interacting with ridging and blocks, all of this in data sparse regions that are critical for the forecast of this storm system. All possibilities remain on the table, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I really think tomorrow needs to be off the board , and once this gets sampled the OP will look like the Ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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