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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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If the first wave was weaker, this second piece of energy would have a lot more room to amplify. Really energetic moving through the MS Valley at 114.

I said something close to this and it was called panicking last night. That first wave kills this threat if modeled correctly. Plenty of time for improvements though. Need that first wave out if the way and weaker!

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I posted the Ensembles earlier showing its error and its why the OP Is likely  WRONG , the trough in the GOA argues for deeper trough through the OHIO valley ,

You can see how  at 500 mb it splits the trough  in the Ohio Valley . Its prob wrong . 

It will be one strong trough , and that`s the difference . The Euro has corrected all year , it deepened the trough every time this year .

 IMO  its coming . 

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But would you be saying that if it was showing an HECS with 30 inches & 60 MPH? Thats the question you have to ask yourself.

yes, because it would still be 6 days away and we've seen things change many times at this timeframe, for better or for worse. 

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Still very confident we'll get a significant event, but the question will be whether it's more of what we've been seeing (6-10" type storms) or something more of a historic context (12-18"+). 

 

The record setting EPO block over the Bering straits and the block over the Davis Straits is extremely impressive and important. We're not gonna get past this period without a significant event, you can bet on that. 

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The lead vort on the Euro looked stronger and really developed off the coast. That might have dampened heights but I'm no pro.

 

I know but it seemed stronger this time hence lower heights ahead of the next storm and not letting it amplify enough to come up the coast. I'd like to hear a met comment. Maybe I'm wrong.

last night 0z Euro run

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yes, because it would still be 6 days away and we've seen things change many times at this timeframe, for better or for worse. 

On that we agree . If, however, the science of pumping up the 1st low is correct then the science of squashing the 2nd low will also prove to be true. As we always say ' Trend is your friend' but in this case......

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I said something close to this and it was called panicking last night. That first wave kills this threat if modeled correctly. Plenty of time for improvements though. Need that first wave out if the way and weaker!

That will likely change somewhat by the time the event comes around. Often models emphasize the lead vort too much at this time frame. Remember, the 1/2 storm was supposed to be a dead threat because of a vort ahead of it. The trailing one strengthened and became a significant storm here in the end, although the lead vort was still enough to remove energy from the follow-up vort. This season has been known for progressiveness, so the lead vort idea is possible, but not for suppression. I'm not sure I buy a completely OTS/weak outcome from all this.

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I actually wonder if that energy ahead of it will get fused into the system, which is kind of what the models showed a couple days ago when they were showing a HECS around here. It would support the idea of focusing all the energy into one system due to the deep trough.

If the lead vort slows down, then we could get a December 1960 or December 2003 Redux with two vorts rotating and fusing with that scenario.

Sent from my HTC PH39100

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I posted the Ensembles earlier showing its error and its why the OP Is likely  WRONG , the trough in the GOA argues for deeper trough through the OHIO valley ,

You can see how  at 500 mb it splits the trough  in the Ohio Valley . Its prob wrong . 

It will be one strong trough , and that`s the difference . The Euro has corrected all year , it deepened the trough every time this year .

 IMO  its coming .

This year the euro just hasnt been its usual self. I was thinking with this particular evolution it would have a better handle on things with a block, but there is still a lot of spread with its ensembles. Tomorrow nights 0z euro will have to the first one really with good data. If there is a lot of spread then, well, welcome to 2014. Without a reliable king euro this winter has been tough especially for non mets like me.

In my own mind the gfs and euro Runs from 12z were divergent, but not light appears apart either.

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This may be irrelavant but this morning John mentioned the SREF hinting at something at the end of their run. Maybe they are focusing on saturday as well. Its funny if we revert back to saturday instead of sunday.

imo that is where we are headed based on trends this winter. Potentially a secs on saturday...we shall see.
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It's total chaos right now in the upper levels. Lots of different shortwaves swirling around vortexes and interacting with ridging and blocks, all of this in data sparse regions that are critical for the forecast of this storm system. All possibilities remain on the table, imo. 

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