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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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lol I was waiting for this solution to show up. 1) because some of the ensemble members pointed to it, but it was only a matter of time before the GFS said, "hey I wonder what happens if I try dropping this trough in early?" and commence sloppy phase before the southern vort can actually get consolidated.

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Some notes from WPC's extended discussion from this morning:

 

I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY
THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND
BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW
ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S
A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)
SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER
THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST SAT/D4 INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN/D5. A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST AND THEN EXIT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/D6 AND WELL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY
TUE/D7. PRECIPITATION COULD BE ROBUST... OR COULD BE NEXT TO
NOTHING...FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

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yepper I'm leaning towards the euro's handling of this as well even if its ots....seems to have more consistencies than other guidance at this point

the GFS just wasn't understanding the powerful confluence that should've forced that LP from the south off the eastern seaboard instead of going north and redeveloping. if #10 analog is 1996 I doubt that's going to be final outcome. one guarantee though is this system regardless with have boat load of moisture

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The lead wave is stronger on the Euro. Just misses skimming our area at 108 hours. The second wave is right on its heels but likely won't have room to amplify because the first wave will drag the baroclinc zone east. 

we don't want that lead wave to deepen because it will do just that, screw the weekend system from amplifying

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