96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And like clockwork this winter suddenly that system at 108 hours which was in Florida 2 days ago is suddenly creeping up the coastMaybe it's a bad question, but if that is far enough West and North, could it interact with the diving S/W and really blow this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 12z GEFS members are all over the place with this. The mean looks flat and OTS overall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol I was waiting for this solution to show up. 1) because some of the ensemble members pointed to it, but it was only a matter of time before the GFS said, "hey I wonder what happens if I try dropping this trough in early?" and commence sloppy phase before the southern vort can actually get consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 12z GEFS members are all over the place with this. The mean looks flat and OTS overall though.right where we want it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You guys are going to go mental, and crazy if you follow every model. I'd wait after tomorrows event and then start haha. Then again its a love/hate hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 with how good that model has been this year with the pattern I would take that into consideration as well yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just one model showing a 96' redux inside of 120 hours and this place is going to explode. forum crashing worthy at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here is the correct 12z GGEM for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 With a SE ridge that would end up closer to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Highly recommend some of you folks just take a breather from this thread until tomorrow's threat passes. Once we have that out of the way, it'll be much easier to focus on the weekend threat. Days and days of model following can make even the most sane man, mad Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some notes from WPC's extended discussion from this morning: I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLYTHE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. ANDBOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOWALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'SA GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVINGTHROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAMENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVEOF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THEFORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVERTHE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TOTRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTILTHEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7....SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARDAND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERNGULF COAST SAT/D4 INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN/D5. A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEMSHOULD MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST AND THEN EXIT NORTHEASTWARD INTOTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/D6 AND WELL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BYTUE/D7. PRECIPITATION COULD BE ROBUST... OR COULD BE NEXT TONOTHING...FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Model discussions can be found on p.19 (p.34 of the .pdf) at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf excellent read, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Bring on the euro and some accurate pbp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Bring on the euro and some accurate pbp! yes sir! I cannot wait for that run. im riding that model this the very end. it seems to have a better understanding of the players on the field currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yes sir! I cannot wait for that run. im riding that model this the very end. it seems to have a better understanding of the players on the field currentlyyepper I'm leaning towards the euro's handling of this as well even if its ots....seems to have more consistencies than other guidance at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 yepper I'm leaning towards the euro's handling of this as well even if its ots....seems to have more consistencies than other guidance at this point the GFS just wasn't understanding the powerful confluence that should've forced that LP from the south off the eastern seaboard instead of going north and redeveloping. if #10 analog is 1996 I doubt that's going to be final outcome. one guarantee though is this system regardless with have boat load of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 one guarantee though is this system regardless with have boat load of moisture Why is that a guarantee? I wouldn't hedge my bets on low-res QPF bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yepper I'm leaning towards the euro's handling of this as well even if its ots....seems to have more consistencies than other guidance at this point Unless it says something bad...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why is that a guarantee? I wouldn't hedge my bets on low-res QPF bombs. you have a LP coming from the south and southern stream connection it will be loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Unless it says something bad......it already did at 0z and I'm still hugging it :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Unless it says something bad...... if a model properly understands the upper air pattern in NA you shouldn't have wild run-to-run differences, although it will inevitably happen with "model hiccups" which looks like the EURO has limited that thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gosh the 12z Euro looks flat through hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro developing the initial wave for Saturday over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gosh the 12z Euro looks flat through hour 96. So did the GFS and look what it produced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro going nutz with the first wave, moderate snow southern NJ, light snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The lead wave is stronger on the Euro. Just misses skimming our area at 108 hours. The second wave is right on its heels but likely won't have room to amplify because the first wave will drag the baroclinc zone east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The lead wave is stronger on the Euro. Just misses skimming our area at 108 hours. The second wave is right on its heels but likely won't have room to amplify because the first wave will drag the baroclinc zone east. we don't want that lead wave to deepen because it will do just that, screw the weekend system from amplifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 As SnowGoose mentioned yesterday, watch that first wave! When the southeast ridge pumps storms are likely to be further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the first wave was weaker, this second piece of energy would have a lot more room to amplify. Really energetic moving through the MS Valley at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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