REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The surface low is broader and less intense. This is a result of the primary hanging on a hair too long and H5 not going as nutz at 06z. The very strong confluence in SE canada i doubt the primary can get much further than S. ohio. My previous post confirms why im going with the EURO and the miller A idea. Its going to go around the confluent flow and up the coast not ride a primary up the OH valley into the confluence. IMO doesnt make sense synoptically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS likes the redeveloping mille B while EURO is a pure breed miller A...hmmm what will be the likely outcome? Im siding with the EURO I guess we will just have to see at 1 if it still shows the A.. I also like the Euro for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Across the board the models are having a real tough time figuring out how the energy in the NW CONUS is ejected East...The strength/angle (positive/negative), and how far N-S it is plays a huge role as it migrates East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still a funky evolution... closed surface low pretty much rides east along 40N from Wyoming. That first impulse off the SE US coast looks more pronounced too, forming a distinct coastal system (which heads well OTS). Nothing from that run to suggest we're close to a final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like nothing more than model noise, players still on the table. Stuff like this happens all the time with the players on the field at Medium Range. Not every run will be consistent. It will be more consistent at least by tomorrow night. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lets see what the gefs has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still a decent signal for storminess at the surface. I wouldn't put much stock in this, but as others have said, it's nice to know that the system always finds a way to produce a significant cyclone, regardless of how it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GFS looks very nice at 129 hours, like it is headed for a negative tilt and exploding area of low pressure....although a very fast mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Better than the squished out look from 0z. at least this one is more in line with 6z. there are 48 hours worth of model runs to go before good sampling in the data. PS while everyone is watching the coastal signal for Monday, there is a consolodating vort coming out of the 4 corners into the base of the trough... EDIT: then it goes into the yukatan. whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Look at the ensembles rather than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was looking at the archived datat for Jan3-6th 1996 leading up the Bliz....Honestly (I'll probably sound like a weenie), but the setup is actually very similar. Now, the 12z GFS doesn't amplify the ridge enough so the short/wave doesn't dig enough. Check this out, this is GFS @ 57 hours; January 6, 1996, few days before the blizzard; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Assuming the confluince over New England and Canada is correct, and the system is phased out west, the energy will have no choice but to redevelop to our south. Exciting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's just a lot of model noise right now, maybe that lead vort (hrs 96-108) is confusing the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was looking at the archived datat for Jan3-6th 1996 leading up the Bliz....Honestly (I'll probably sound like a weenie), but the setup is actually very similar. Now, the 12z GFS doesn't amplify the ridge enough so the short/wave doesn't dig enough. Check this out, this is GFS @ 57 hours; GFS1996.gif January 6, 1996, few days before the blizzard; 19961.gif That my friend is a scary match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GGEM is offshore http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And like clockwork this winter suddenly that system at 108 hours which was in Florida 2 days ago is suddenly creeping up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 #10 analog over the east at hour 60 is now January 4, 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Most of the 120hr analogs show a suppressed track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What this storm has the opportunity to be, the models won't pick up on till the Tuesday - Wednesday storm passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All models had the 96 suppressed- remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 And like clockwork this winter suddenly that system at 108 hours which was in Florida 2 days ago is suddenly creeping up the coastWouldnt that hurt our chances with the weekend storm however? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Most of the 120hr analogs show a suppressed track. Well that won't happen and it's probably a good thing that some models are offshore in the time frame. Even the southern storm with a very positively tilted trough managed to get some snow up here (several further south in NJ) when the the models said no way a few days beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All models had the 96 suppressed- remember? I remember reading about that. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 model schmodel...the AO was forecast to go very positive with one member going very negative...Today it's mostly all negative...If you twist and turn with every model run you would be 10 lbs lighter on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just one model showing a 96' redux inside of 120 hours and this place is going to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I remember reading about that. Sent from my HTC PH39100 Models today are much, much better than the 1990s. Look around for the players on the stage and the rest should follow if they are favorable. The potential blocking still looks to be there, potent trough, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All models had the 96 suppressed- remember? Not the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 model schmodel...the AO was forecast to go very positive with one member going very negative...Today it's mostly all negative...If you twist and turn with every model run you would be 10 lbs lighter on average... So basically the -AO is better this time around? Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And like clockwork this winter suddenly that system at 108 hours which was in Florida 2 days ago is suddenly creeping up the coast U alluded to that yesterday for the Sat , looks like there`s better lift to the N of where the GFS slides the center off the GA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not the euro Model discussions can be found on p.19 (p.34 of the .pdf) at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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