earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's what's great about having the blocking in place. It slows down the pattern and allows the S/W to amplify and develop a storm. Without it, I'd agree with you that we risk a solution that flies off the coast and doesn't form or forms too late. Earthlight-excellent post as usual. The specifics won't become important for at least a few more days. Still pretty far out there, but the variance amongst SREF members at 87 hours is somewhat large. That being said, look at how almost all of them feature lots of confluence and a signal for overrunning and eventual development of a coastal on the baroclinic zone. Really exciting.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_9z/f87.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still pretty far out there, but the variance amongst SREF members at 87 hours is somewhat large. That being said, look at how almost all of them feature lots of confluence and a signal for overrunning and eventual development of a coastal on the baroclinic zone. Really exciting.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_9z/f87.gif John if i dont see you working in the NWS or some other high ranking meteorlogical agency in the US id be beyond surprised and dissapointed. The knowledge that you possess with this stuff is astounding. That being said this threat looks amazing and has for the past 5 days going to be an exciting 12z Suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will second what RED... said about Earthlight (John), the attention to detail and the knowledge and reasoning around your arguments speaks to the fact you will excel in what ever endeavor you embark. Now I go back to lurking!!!! Thanks all for great insight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The European is sending the storm out in 2 pieces , Check out the 500 MB ensembles `1 the SE not going to let anything just escape 2 , look at how deep the trough is in the GOA , that argues for a more phased look and 1 system . Should b 1 deep trough The most important feature by far on that map is the continued signal for above normal heights pressing down from the Davis Straight into Central Canada. This is what forces the amplification of the trough over the Central US as it moves eastward. The GFS yesterday was the first to signal this as it showed damp, flat trough -- everybody here lost their marbles -- and it still amplified because of that development. The presence of good low level cold and confluence to the north also ensures that any big bombing low pressure system could paste us anyway with dynamic cooling if there is warm air to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 John, has to be one of the most reasoned, well behaved young adults i've seen in a long time. His writing is impeccable, his composure during events like this are unlike anyone else and his breath of knowledge is second to known. He is this generation's Paul Kochin. As the above post illustrates, he has one heck of a future ahead of him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thanks for the kind words guys. I'm doing my own thing for now (see signature) but do appreciate what you all have to say. I said this a few days ago, but I learned a lot of what I know on these forums to begin with. We're talking back in the WWBB/Eastern days. So I still am grateful that I'm able to share the time to talk meteorology with people here. The cool thing about this career is that you're always learning and improving your skill. Never a boring day at work.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 John, has to be one of the most reasoned, well behaved young adults i've seen in a long time. His writing is impeccable, his composure during events like this are unlike anyone else and his breath of knowledge is second to known. He is this generation's Paul Kochin. As the above post illustrates, he has one heck of a future ahead of him! I'll second this...he writes incredibly well for someone just out of college, studies each potential system with incredible detail, and dedicates his time to improving this board. He will make a fine meteorologist with his knowledge and enthusiasm. Going back to the threat, this is one of the first times this winter we've seen the Davis Strait block allowing a trough to amplify across the TN Valley into a potential KU threat...much more potential for a widespread 12+" from DC-BOS with this one than there ever was with 1/2 or 1/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The most important feature by far on that map is the continued signal for above normal heights pressing down from the Davis Straight into Central Canada. This is what forces the amplification of the trough over the Central US as it moves eastward. The GFS yesterday was the first to signal this as it showed damp, flat trough -- everybody here lost their marbles -- and it still amplified because of that development. The presence of good low level cold and confluence to the north also ensures that any big bombing low pressure system could paste us anyway with dynamic cooling if there is warm air to deal with. I agree , I wouldn`t let myself look at the surface interpretation 6 days out The 6z GFS - 1000 MB SLP at OBX 12 hours later it`s 970 @ the BM My mind is going to dynamic cooling , 50kt wind gusts , Thunder snow . ETC . We may just get a well timed block if that happens it comes . And it will be 1 deep low , that Trough in the Ohio Valley will repsond to the trough in the GOA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What day do you think we'll have a handle on when the system will play out, Thursday or Friday? I concur with the previous comments about John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 What day do you think we'll have a handle on when the system will play out, Thursday or Friday? I concur with the previous comments about John today, tomorrow and thrusday should start to nail this down with some convincing certainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was just saying how uncanny the parallels are between tomorrows system and a system in early January 1996 that was followed by the big blizzard in a similar way that this big storm could follow tomorrow's event. Both of those systems for tomorrow and in early Jan 1996 were rain/ice events around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thanks Red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was just saying how uncanny the parallels are between tomorrows system and a system in early January 1996 that was followed by the big blizzard in a similar way that this big storm could follow tomorrow's event. Both of those systems for tomorrow and in early Jan 1996 were rain/ice events around here. Yup. I will be watching this storm like a hawk. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was just saying how uncanny the parallels are between tomorrows system and a system in early January 1996 that was followed by the big blizzard in a similar way that this big storm could follow tomorrow's event. Both of those systems for tomorrow and in early Jan 1996 were rain/ice events around here. great comparison, even if this storm comes up a beast from DC-BOS its still going to be TOUGH task to knock off 96' from 2nd place on NESIS. I honestly don't think even this storm can do that......at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The #1 analog over the east at hour 36 is January 3, 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The #1 analog over the east at hour 36 is January 3, 1996. Most ridiculous storm ever followed that. Snowed in the Shenandoah Valley from Saturday morning until Monday morning, widespread 32"-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Most ridiculous storm ever followed that. Snowed in the Shenandoah Valley from Saturday morning until Monday morning, widespread 32"-40". I think we're all familiar with 96' lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The shortwave dropping down through the plains looks potent and amped up. Doubt this run disappoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Trough going negative tilt hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some light WAA induced precip, likely snow early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Primary to Cleveland. Precip intensifying. Plenty cold thanks to the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Low transferring to the VA Capes. Can't see why this would end up much different than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The surface looks a little warm but 850's are plenty cold enough, especially from the city north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Low transferring to the VA Capes. Can't see why this would end up much different than 06z. This is about to go BOOM. Watch for the secondary to take over quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wish the 500mb took a more SE track, IF it does we're talking big time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The surface low is broader and less intense. This is a result of the primary hanging on a hair too long and H5 not going as nutz at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Compared to 6z, the LP center looks MUCH farther north and makes it warmer for the coast/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS likes the redeveloping mille B while EURO is a pure breed miller A...hmmm what will be the likely outcome? Im siding with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like nothing more than model noise, players still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 500mb track was just too far North, long way to go and plenty of time to adjust farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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