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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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MT HOLLY , 

 

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE
INITIAL ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENS AND
HELPS INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS IS
OCCURS, STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
CONFIGURATION IS SUCH THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT OVERALL THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TARGET LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS IT EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS STORM
THEN TRACKS TO OUR EAST, HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE INCOMING NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER, AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS
JUNCTURE GENERALLY LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SNOW. THE FLOW
LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY COMES ASHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM COULD BE STRONG BUT A
RELATIVE FAST MOVER.

GIVEN THE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS TARGETING THIS TIME FRAME AND
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO WPC`S TIMING, WE FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCREASE/EXPAND POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE. SINCE THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED AND
THEREFORE DID NOT GET TO FANCY WITHIN THE GRIDS. WE WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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For those of your wondering the 6z GFS both OP/ensembles still are prett damn good looking. 6z OP looks warm but the system deepens alot and produces boat loads of QPF

Pay no attention to stuff like that . When you take a SLP from OBX at 1000 MB and 12 hours later its 970 at the BM

That look will not be there as you get closer

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Pay no attention to stuff like that . When take a SLP from OBX  at 1000 MB and 12 hours later its 970 at the BM

That look will not be there as you get closer

 

just stating that the big storm is still there and I agree and should've known better paul, cold HP in Canada will be considerably colder than that. moral of overnight/early morning run, the BIG storm idea is still very strong and model waffling is naturally occurring. some should listen more to you and earthlight :popcorn:

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6z GFS is something that we would have seen back in 2010-2011

 

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_144_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_147_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

that is a MASSIVE storm and one thing that wasn't touched upon yet even how far out we are would be the winds. willing to bet that's 40-50mph winds along with heavy snow ( just an observation )

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its out far but that would crush the inland sections and have much lower totals along the coast verbatim ATM

As an E PA guy, if that's what it takes to jack up the totals west of the Delaware, it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make. :)

 

Notice the DGEX is offshore, which should deflate any excitement over the GFS.  If the DGEX isn't excited, well, I'm not sure anyone should be with this model cycle.  Don't hang your hat on the 06Z GFS.  WxPorn for sure, but fantasy at this point.

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As an E PA guy, if that's what it takes to jack up the totals west of the Delaware, it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make. :)

 

Notice the DGEX is offshore, which should deflate any excitement over the GFS.  If the DGEX isn't excited, well, I'm not sure anyone should be with this model cycle.  Don't hang your hat on the 06Z GFS.  WxPorn for sure, but fantasy at this point.

absolutely and was just reiterating what the model showed verbatim and the DGEX being suppressed isn't surprising as it most of the time tends to be

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How often do models show a huge storm only to lose it for a bit and then bring it back full force. The answer is many times and the same is happening here, so no worries.

BINGO! but want to see the models key in on what that lead wave does as it could very well have implications on the sunday/Monday storm. expect some server crashes around 11 am this morning :popcorn:

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just giving an opinion on some of the Debbie downer posts from the overnight suite saying its east and looks like crap. 6Z GFS just saved a lot of weenies lives :snowing: no panic should've just said premature judgements

It was east on many models. Just stating fact. Doesn't mean its going to stay that way.

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H5 was a lot better on the 06z GFS than 00z. The system closes off at H5 at hour 147 just south of Long Island. That's a recipe for a bomb.

 

The 06z GEFS mean was also a lot better than 00z.

 

Sounds like we've gotten through our little bump in the road with this one and we should see the rest of the guidance coming on board soon.

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H5 was a lot better on the 06z GFS than 00z. The system closes off at H5 at hour 147 just south of Long Island. That's a recipe for a bomb.

The 06z GEFS mean was also a lot better than 00z.

Sounds like we've gotten through our little bump in the road with this one and we should see the rest of the guidance coming on board soon.

Psst yanks, 12Z shows bermuda getting snow instead haha :P

Weenies will be commiting suicide in record numbers lol

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Usually with the biggest of systems for our area, the models tend to lose them as we enter this time frame. I've personally seen this happen at least four times (BDB, Jan 27th, Feb 8-9th 2010, and the Feb Blizzard last year) 

 

If by Thursday at 12z the big three don't have at least a decent consensus for a decent storm, then I may be a little concerned. Otherwise, it's just S.S.D.D

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H5 was a lot better on the 06z GFS than 00z. The system closes off at H5 at hour 147 just south of Long Island. That's a recipe for a bomb.

 

The 06z GEFS mean was also a lot better than 00z.

 

Sounds like we've gotten through our little bump in the road with this one and we should see the rest of the guidance coming on board soon.

 

I am not attempting to call you out in specific, but using it as an example of something that shouldn't be happening at this range. The "bump in the road" as you describe it (or "worried" last night) is not a bump in the road, in fact it is just the model guidance changing their ideas on how the storm will evolve. 

 

What needs to be understood is that at this range, the important thing is not the specific details of the exact solution, but the pieces in place around it. This is the 6th or more straight GFS run which has shown a well timed psuedo-50/50, impressive confluence, a terrific positioning of the baroclinic zone, a block from the Davis Straight into Central Canada, and a well timed shortwave emerging from the West Coast into the Central US. 

 

What happens thereafter is not going to be determined for a few days. But given the impressive set of synoptic features surrounding the storm, what exactly are you worried about?

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I am not attempting to call you out in specific, but using it as an example of something that shouldn't be happening at this range. The "bump in the road" as you describe it (or "worried" last night) is not a bump in the road, in fact it is just the model guidance changing their ideas on how the storm will evolve. 

 

What needs to be understood is that at this range, the important thing is not the specific details of the exact solution, but the pieces in place around it. This is the 6th or more straight GFS run which has shown a well timed psuedo-50/50, impressive confluence, a terrific positioning of the baroclinic zone, a block from the Davis Straight into Central Canada, and a well timed shortwave emerging from the West Coast into the Central US. 

 

What happens thereafter is not going to be determined for a few days. But given the impressive set of synoptic features surrounding the storm, what exactly are you worried about?

 

maybe the curse word ( no comparsion btw ) march 2001 :lmao:  something that even gives you shivers still probably

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maybe the curse word ( no comparsion btw ) march 2001 :lmao:  something that even gives you shivers still probably

 

Well my point is that, if that's going to happen...it's going to happen. There is nothing to be worried about at this juncture. Everything looks good. Latching on to one evolution at h5 and being disappointed in anything that isn't exactly that is a way to set yourself up for major disappointment at 144 hours out .

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Well my point is that, if that's going to happen...it's going to happen. There is nothing to be worried about at this juncture. Everything looks good. Latching on to one evolution at h5 and being disappointed in anything that isn't exactly that is a way to set yourself up for major disappointment at 144 hours out .

yea your spot on, just trying to make fun at what looked like fairly tense and uneasy overnight model suite. just have to relax at this john and let it play out the next couple days to see if it all does line up or go poof!

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How often do models show a huge storm only to lose it for a bit and then bring it back full force. The answer is many times and the same is happening here, so no worries.

There you have it.... Now everyone please stop the model hugging. Sit back and wait till at least this next one is outta here... Fri models should paint a better pic. I'm going to stock up on my bourbon now. Just sayin... B-)
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yea your spot on, just trying to make fun at what looked like fairly tense and uneasy overnight model suite. just have to relax at this john and let it play out the next couple days to see if it all does line up or go poof!

Glad we have ignore lists here thats all :).  I am just hoping the timing works out.  I have a friend coming into EWR Sunday night from Cancun.  Apparently she'd be pissed if she had to stay there longer. 

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I am not attempting to call you out in specific, but using it as an example of something that shouldn't be happening at this range. The "bump in the road" as you describe it (or "worried" last night) is not a bump in the road, in fact it is just the model guidance changing their ideas on how the storm will evolve. 

 

What needs to be understood is that at this range, the important thing is not the specific details of the exact solution, but the pieces in place around it. This is the 6th or more straight GFS run which has shown a well timed psuedo-50/50, impressive confluence, a terrific positioning of the baroclinic zone, a block from the Davis Straight into Central Canada, and a well timed shortwave emerging from the West Coast into the Central US. 

 

What happens thereafter is not going to be determined for a few days. But given the impressive set of synoptic features surrounding the storm, what exactly are you worried about?

I have my concerns about the shortwave becoming completely sheared out.

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I have my concerns about the shortwave becoming completely sheared out.

The European is sending the storm out in 2 pieces ,  Check out the 500 MB ensembles  `1  the SE not going to let anything just escape  2 , look at how deep the trough is in the GOA , that argues for a more phased look and 1 system .  

Should b 1 deep trough 

post-7472-0-03024400-1391525849_thumb.pn

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I have my concerns about the shortwave becoming completely sheared out.

That's what's great about having the blocking in place. It slows down the pattern and allows the S/W to amplify and develop a storm. Without it, I'd agree with you that we risk a solution that flies off the coast and doesn't form or forms too late.

 

Earthlight-excellent post as usual. The specifics won't become important for at least a few more days.

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