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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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I just texted my girlfriend:

 

Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow.

Her: You're funny

Me: Why?

Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow?

Me: Me

Her: Weirdo

Me: You just don't understand it, and never will.

 

This is classic....

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Haha i will gladly get your back on that one. Florida will always be there ( barring some biblical zombie attack ) but a nice blizzard potential like next weekend? DO NOT want to miss that

I was in Daytona Beach for PDII and the stinging still hurts. At least I was in Disney World when the actual storm hit. Their are worst places to be stranded lol.

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I was in Daytona Beach for PDII and the stinging still hurts. At least I was in Disney World when the actual storm hit. Their are worst places to be stranded lol.

I dont know having cartoon characters around you while your hometown is getting plastered by a KU is still quite the kick to the plums OUCH! I was in sullivan county for PDII, couldnt go home because they closed ALL roads in orange county

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I dont know having cartoon characters around you while your hometown is getting plastered by a KU is still quite the kick to the plums OUCH! I was in sullivan county for PDII, couldnt go home because they closed ALL roads in orange county

Actually flew in and out of KSWF for that trip back when the old Southeast Airlines existed. My flight was delayed two days.

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Actually flew in and out of KSWF for that trip back when the old Southeast Airlines existed. My flight was delayed two days.

You always think of those storms because of the legendary status they inherited and also screwed us haha

But this storm wants to another PDII thats for sure

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I just want to point out that the system on the 5th doesn't have to be a cutter in order for the follow up system to work out. We need a strong low pressure system out of the first one, that is all. And should we cash in on both, it might rival Washington DC's 2010.

Who wrote this you or someone else?
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Exactly which is why I said nice low track high placement etc. but I did read someone state 2" qpf and "qpf bomb" .. My maps don't show that

Neither do the Wx Bell snow maps. They show a 6-9 inch storm around NYC proper and then they show 10 + in places like MD..

yeah I was seeing the same thing
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Does anyone else plow snow? Im a plower so when the storm finally hits, I am out in it for the duration and sometimes like PDII, 96 and 2010, I am out there for many hours after it stops. Being out in and pushing it as its coming down is the best. Seeing all the wacky **** that people do in snow storms... only bad thing is when its a doozy storm, like what we have coming. I dont get much sleep from the excitement leading into it and then many hours of actual plowing... dont ask me how I do it...LOL

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I just texted my girlfriend:

 

Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow.

Her: You're funny

Me: Why?

Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow?

Me: Me

Her: Weirdo

Me: You just don't understand it, and never will.

This may be a 1st as you may have to see a psychiatrist before a marriage counselor

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One thing that I've learned about these snow maps is that they are almost always horribly wrong.

Yes they are. But what I've noticed is that in all of the BIG storms (as in, ones that dump a foot or more widespread with even 18" widespread +), there usually WILL be model runs where snow maps do show up that show these high amounts for the area. It is something that is good to see because it just raises the bar for what kind of storm we are talking about. Brings it to the next level

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Probability the best snowstorm agreement that you will see between the OP Euro and

ensemble mean at day 8-9. 

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_192.gif

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_216.gif

The GFS Euro Canadian all have it , I really like this  I think this is the best set up all winter from DC to Boston ,

But at 9 days I will tread lightly  . Monday and Wednesdays system prob have some  impact on this ,

so have to get thru them 1 st

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The GFS Euro Canadian all have it , I really like this I think this is the best set up all winter from DC to Boston ,

But at 9 days I will tread lightly . Monday and Wednesdays system prob have some impact on this ,

so have to get thru them 1 st

That wednesday storm modeled correctly "should" set the weekend storm up nice with a 50/50 and also higher hieghts/ some blocking over greenland. Exciting to say the least paul
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That wednesday storm modeled correctly "should" set the weekend storm up nice with a 50/50 and also higher hieghts/ some blocking over greenland. Exciting to say the least paul

This is best agreement since March 2001 .. and I told you this morning , you had to be strapped down not to jump off a bridge after that

The amounts for days were a YARD plus . So 9 days out it only takes a variable or 2 to change  and the whole solution changes

I like it , I said I  thinks its DC to Boston . But being in CNJ I have a shot at Monday and 24 hours ago , we were dry .

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Pretty impressive to say the least buddy. Lets get that to hold through the weekend but unlikely knowing the models tendency to just forget storms lol

 

 

The GFS Euro Canadian all have it , I really like this  I think this is the best set up all winter from DC to Boston ,

But at 9 days I will tread lightly  . Monday and Wednesdays system prob have some  impact on this ,

so have to get thru them 1 st

 

This would be one of those cases where a northward trend as we get closer would help us out.

Just not too much with a weaker high than currently modeled since the 500 mb pattern doesn't

look very forgiving without the big surface high.

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This is best agreement since March 2001 .. and I told you this morning , you had to be strapped down not to jump off a bridge after that

The amounts for days were a YARD plus . So 9 days out it only takes a variable or 2 to change and the whole solution changes

I like it , I said I thinks its DC to Boston . But being in CNJ I have a shot at Monday and 24 hours ago , we were dry .

Sleepless night this weekend and next week. Better stock up on no-doze thats for sure
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Why aren't the analogs supportive of this event? I am so confused:

 

610analog.off.gif

 

Without the strong surface high that the models are showing, the 500 mb analogs aren't really noteworthy like several

other snow events that were all about the strength of the surface high. Those CPC analogs only use 500 mb

patterns.

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I just texted my girlfriend:

 

Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow.

Her: You're funny

Me: Why?

Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow?

Me: Me

Her: Weirdo

Me: You just don't understand it, and never will.

funny,totally understand

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That's centered the day before the storm. 

 

 

Without the strong surface high that the models are showing, the 500 mb analogs aren't really noteworthy like several

other snow events that were all about the strength of the surface high. Those CPC analogs only use 500 mb

patterns.

Thanks for your input, guys. Can you find any analogs that correlate with the modeled surface on 2/8?

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Probability the best snowstorm agreement that you will see between the OP Euro and

ensemble mean at day 8-9. 

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_192.gif

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_216.gif

verbatim that hP cell is WAY too far east on the ensemble hr216 forecast for it to stay snow along the coast - useless to discuss this far out...but ill say it again this pattern doesnt favor big snow at our latitude...+nao/-pna is crappy any way you cut it. Significantly better C and N NE

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