alwaysready126 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just texted my girlfriend: Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow. Her: You're funny Me: Why? Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow? Me: Me Her: Weirdo Me: You just don't understand it, and never will. This is classic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Haha i will gladly get your back on that one. Florida will always be there ( barring some biblical zombie attack ) but a nice blizzard potential like next weekend? DO NOT want to miss that I was in Daytona Beach for PDII and the stinging still hurts. At least I was in Disney World when the actual storm hit. Their are worst places to be stranded lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I was in Daytona Beach for PDII and the stinging still hurts. At least I was in Disney World when the actual storm hit. Their are worst places to be stranded lol. I dont know having cartoon characters around you while your hometown is getting plastered by a KU is still quite the kick to the plums OUCH! I was in sullivan county for PDII, couldnt go home because they closed ALL roads in orange county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just want to point out that the system on the 5th doesn't have to be a cutter in order for the follow up system to work out. We need a strong low pressure system out of the first one, that is all. And should we cash in on both, it might rival Washington DC's 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I dont know having cartoon characters around you while your hometown is getting plastered by a KU is still quite the kick to the plums OUCH! I was in sullivan county for PDII, couldnt go home because they closed ALL roads in orange county Actually flew in and out of KSWF for that trip back when the old Southeast Airlines existed. My flight was delayed two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Actually flew in and out of KSWF for that trip back when the old Southeast Airlines existed. My flight was delayed two days. You always think of those storms because of the legendary status they inherited and also screwed us haha But this storm wants to another PDII thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just want to point out that the system on the 5th doesn't have to be a cutter in order for the follow up system to work out. We need a strong low pressure system out of the first one, that is all. And should we cash in on both, it might rival Washington DC's 2010.Who wrote this you or someone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Exactly which is why I said nice low track high placement etc. but I did read someone state 2" qpf and "qpf bomb" .. My maps don't show that Neither do the Wx Bell snow maps. They show a 6-9 inch storm around NYC proper and then they show 10 + in places like MD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Exactly which is why I said nice low track high placement etc. but I did read someone state 2" qpf and "qpf bomb" .. My maps don't show that Neither do the Wx Bell snow maps. They show a 6-9 inch storm around NYC proper and then they show 10 + in places like MD.. yeah I was seeing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 yeah I was seeing the same thing If this storm does happen and it is powerful with all the moisture and cold air it would have its going to produce alot more snow than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Does anyone else plow snow? Im a plower so when the storm finally hits, I am out in it for the duration and sometimes like PDII, 96 and 2010, I am out there for many hours after it stops. Being out in and pushing it as its coming down is the best. Seeing all the wacky **** that people do in snow storms... only bad thing is when its a doozy storm, like what we have coming. I dont get much sleep from the excitement leading into it and then many hours of actual plowing... dont ask me how I do it...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One thing that I've learned about these snow maps is that they are almost always horribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just texted my girlfriend: Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow. Her: You're funny Me: Why? Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow? Me: Me Her: Weirdo Me: You just don't understand it, and never will. This may be a 1st as you may have to see a psychiatrist before a marriage counselor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z ECMWF ensemble mean loves this threat, but definitely favors southern areas slightly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One thing that I've learned about these snow maps is that they are almost always horribly wrong. Yes they are. But what I've noticed is that in all of the BIG storms (as in, ones that dump a foot or more widespread with even 18" widespread +), there usually WILL be model runs where snow maps do show up that show these high amounts for the area. It is something that is good to see because it just raises the bar for what kind of storm we are talking about. Brings it to the next level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z ECMWF ensemble mean loves this threat, but definitely favors southern areas slightly more. IIRC the EURO is better with Miller A's correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Probability the best snowstorm agreement that you will see between the OP Euro and ensemble mean at day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 IIRC the EURO is better with Miller A's correct? This isn't a true miller A, more of a miller A/B hybrid because of the redevelopment. At least 12z Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Probability the best snowstorm agreement that you will see between the OP Euro and ensemble mean at day 8-9. MSLP_North32America_192.gif MSLP_North32America_216.gif Pretty impressive to say the least buddy. Lets get that to hold through the weekend but unlikely knowing the models tendency to just forget storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Probability the best snowstorm agreement that you will see between the OP Euro and ensemble mean at day 8-9. MSLP_North32America_192.gif MSLP_North32America_216.gif The GFS Euro Canadian all have it , I really like this I think this is the best set up all winter from DC to Boston , But at 9 days I will tread lightly . Monday and Wednesdays system prob have some impact on this , so have to get thru them 1 st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The GFS Euro Canadian all have it , I really like this I think this is the best set up all winter from DC to Boston , But at 9 days I will tread lightly . Monday and Wednesdays system prob have some impact on this , so have to get thru them 1 st That wednesday storm modeled correctly "should" set the weekend storm up nice with a 50/50 and also higher hieghts/ some blocking over greenland. Exciting to say the least paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That wednesday storm modeled correctly "should" set the weekend storm up nice with a 50/50 and also higher hieghts/ some blocking over greenland. Exciting to say the least paul This is best agreement since March 2001 .. and I told you this morning , you had to be strapped down not to jump off a bridge after that The amounts for days were a YARD plus . So 9 days out it only takes a variable or 2 to change and the whole solution changes I like it , I said I thinks its DC to Boston . But being in CNJ I have a shot at Monday and 24 hours ago , we were dry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pretty impressive to say the least buddy. Lets get that to hold through the weekend but unlikely knowing the models tendency to just forget storms lol The GFS Euro Canadian all have it , I really like this I think this is the best set up all winter from DC to Boston , But at 9 days I will tread lightly . Monday and Wednesdays system prob have some impact on this , so have to get thru them 1 st This would be one of those cases where a northward trend as we get closer would help us out. Just not too much with a weaker high than currently modeled since the 500 mb pattern doesn't look very forgiving without the big surface high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is best agreement since March 2001 .. and I told you this morning , you had to be strapped down not to jump off a bridge after that The amounts for days were a YARD plus . So 9 days out it only takes a variable or 2 to change and the whole solution changes I like it , I said I thinks its DC to Boston . But being in CNJ I have a shot at Monday and 24 hours ago , we were dry . Sleepless night this weekend and next week. Better stock up on no-doze thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why aren't the analogs supportive of this event? I am so confused: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why aren't the analogs supportive of this event? I am so confused: That's centered the day before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why aren't the analogs supportive of this event? I am so confused: Without the strong surface high that the models are showing, the 500 mb analogs aren't really noteworthy like several other snow events that were all about the strength of the surface high. Those CPC analogs only use 500 mb patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just texted my girlfriend: Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow. Her: You're funny Me: Why? Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow? Me: Me Her: Weirdo Me: You just don't understand it, and never will. funny,totally understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's centered the day before the storm. Without the strong surface high that the models are showing, the 500 mb analogs aren't really noteworthy like several other snow events that were all about the strength of the surface high. Those CPC analogs only use 500 mb patterns. Thanks for your input, guys. Can you find any analogs that correlate with the modeled surface on 2/8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Probability the best snowstorm agreement that you will see between the OP Euro and ensemble mean at day 8-9. MSLP_North32America_192.gif MSLP_North32America_216.gif verbatim that hP cell is WAY too far east on the ensemble hr216 forecast for it to stay snow along the coast - useless to discuss this far out...but ill say it again this pattern doesnt favor big snow at our latitude...+nao/-pna is crappy any way you cut it. Significantly better C and N NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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