WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You didn't think the evolution looked different at all? Still was a good set up. But initially it did look different. Yea it was different but this far out changes like this are normal. As John pointed out it basically fores the storm with the block, that's why it kinda came together at the surface real quick. The surface this far out is still mostly noise anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 People live and die by the model runs and when it dosn't show what they want it to show they spew nonsense, happens all the time, but not to this extent. The gfs pulled it off... In a Pretty odd IMHO It's only odd if you're participating in modelology and not meteorology. The meteorology of this set up on every model and ensemble guidance set suggests there is a heightened chance of a significant winter storm in the Northeast. While it is impossible to know the details, which will eventually determine the track and intensity -- and many are still on the table -- what's important is not what each run is showing with the storm specifically, but it's surroundings. This run had a weaker shortwave initially that was more sheared and flat. But what is important to take out of this run? Look how that sheared and flat energy was forced southward underneath a developing Central Canada blocking feature and allowed to amplify eastward. This is another run signaling strong and well timed confluence and red flags up everywhere for big east coast cyclogenesis. That's about it. All of the important pieces are still on the table. The play by play analysis crap is useless especially when it's so god awful that people are saying the model shows nothing and it turns out showing a huge storm. Look at the players on the field and the evolution of the pattern and you get a much better idea as to what's going on..and save yourself some sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's only odd if you're participating in modelology and not meteorology. The meteorology of this set up on every model and ensemble guidance set suggests there is a heightened chance of a significant winter storm in the Northeast. While it is impossible to know the details, which will eventually determine the track and intensity -- and many are still on the table -- what's important is not what each run is showing with the storm specifically, but it's surroundings. This run had a weaker shortwave initially that was more sheared and flat. But what is important to take out of this run? Look how that sheared and flat energy was forced southward underneath a developing Central Canada blocking feature and allowed to amplify eastward. This is another run signaling strong and well timed confluence and red flags up everywhere for big east coast cyclogenesis. That's about it. All of the important pieces are still on the table. The play by play analysis crap is useless especially when it's so god awful that people are saying the model shows nothing and it turns out showing a huge storm. Look at the players on the field and the evolution of the pattern and you get a much better idea as to what's going on..and save yourself some sanity. Thanks for putting things in prospective. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another one a few days later. This is crazy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another one a few days later. This is crazy lol. Day 10. I wasn't going to mention it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What IS crazy with this event is that it has gone from a storm beginning midday Saturday to a storm beginning 2 days later Start time is late sunday night..it hasn't shown snow on saturday for a couple days now...boxing day was similar.. Initially looked like a Christmas eve storm and ended up 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It looks around 1.2 QPF in less then 24 hours. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another one a few days later. This is crazy lol. It's been on the models for days. Just nothing that looked as good as this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The trend today on the GFS has been for more of a flatter de-amped trough. That worries me. The GFS still pulled it off though, this run. A few days ago, the gfs showed this being a lake cutter. Like Earthlight said the pieces are all there, and he's been right on the money with almost everything he said when he was discussing this time period. Then there was Ace who got banned because he was in panic mode that every storm is going to cut, which at this point is very improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Be nice to wake up to a good GEFS/ECM/ECM ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't know what to say to you guys. Some of the worst analysis I have read in years. I guess you haven't been in this forum much this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No big storm this run, not even close. fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 fail Apparently the euro's well S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro develops a low SE of Cape Hatteras and tracks it ENE ots. Light snow hrs 138-150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEm develops a storm and goes ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Also has a coastal at 120 that misses.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GEFS are ots as well. Looks like a rather large spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The PV was off the SE Canadian Coast and that was due to the weaker WB -NAO, so therefore the trough axis was too far east. Not to mention the lack of ridging on the West Coast. Although, as I said before: Most likely the start of an erratic series of hiccups. We are in Medium Range, so this is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Also has a coastal at 120 that misses.. I've noticed that little system at that range the last few GFS runs, its way down off NC but again, same pattern with that SE ridge trying to pump...I'd watch this the next 2 days to see what happens with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The lead vort on the Euro looked stronger and really developed off the coast. That might have dampened heights but I'm no pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 THe GGEM has that lead vort too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That lead vort first showed up on the EURO on 12Z 01/31/2014 on HR 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That lead vort first showed up on the EURO on 12Z 01/31/2014 on HR 192. I know but it seemed stronger this time hence lower heights ahead of the next storm and not letting it amplify enough to come up the coast. I'd like to hear a met comment. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not a bad look huh 17 MB drop in 6 hours from OBX Gets to 970 at the BM 29 MB drop in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not a bad look huh 17 MB drop in 6 hours from OBX Gets to 970 at the BM 29 MB drop in 12 hours HECS i would say. This morning has been sheer panic paul, john explained it best though in the end it still delivered a BIG snow storm. Any word on the euro ensembles/control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HECS i would say. This morning has been sheer panic paul, john explained it best though in the end it still delivered a BIG snow storm. Any word on the euro ensembles/control run Not as wound up as 12z and further east. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not as wound up as 12z and further east. 0z MSLP_North32America_144.gif 12z MSLP_North32America_168.gif Both the Ensembles and the Control were east, that's why we keep saying no HECS talk 6 days out , just see how the week progresses . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Both the Ensembles and the Control were east, that's why we keep saying no HECS talk 6 days out , just see how the week progresses . The difference was that 0z came out less phased with the streams staying separate. But as we have seen this winter all the interesting action has been a result of short range changes that happened under 72. That's why the 120+ hr is fun to look at for potential, but the details have to wait to within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The difference was that 0z came out less phased with the streams staying separate. But as we have seen this winter all the interesting action has been a result of short range changes that happened under 72. That's why the 120+ hr is fun to look at for potential, but the details have to wait to within a few days. f120.gif f144.gif I couldn`t agree more , Everyone wants to be 1st . I think its better to be right . 2 - 12 inch snowstorms popped up this year inside 72 hours which tells me the models are having a hard time seeing details in there MR . So asking it to define a solution 6 days out let alone ( 10 ) is asking a lot . Its been on here for 5 days already and seems like its been forever but that happens when you constantly look a something that is 10 plus days away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I couldn`t agree more , Everyone wants to be 1st . I think its better to be right . 2 - 12 inch snowstorms popped up this year inside 72 hours which tells me the models are having a hard time seeing details in there MR . So asking it to define a solution 6 days out let alone ( 10 ) is asking a lot . Its been on here for 5 days already and seems like its been forever but that happens when you constantly look a something that is 10 plus days away . Yeah, you know the details are going to have to wait until we get closer in. The specifics on how close together the two streams get will make the whole forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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