user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lol at the change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The trend today has been to weaken the energy and deamplify the trough. We want it to go bonkers amped with that arctic high in place, otherwise it's barely run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Could just be the GFS crisis mode. Be interesting to see the GEFS though(All I care about at this range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You're still going to get a winter storm in that synoptic setup. The block moving from the Davis Straight into Central Canada almost forces it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No big storm this run, not even close. Awful analysis. Let the run finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The storm is coming together now at 153 but weaker it looks lie the gfs is having a lot of trouble with it this run at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At least it still has snow falling... interesting run tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There's a Coastal forming at HR 147, but it'll be a bit too warm. Why? There is a 1000mb low deepening east of Ocean City MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 is it still a storm? Yes. Not a major one. looks like it will still be a pretty big storm just a weird evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 is it still a storm? Yes. Not a major one. There are still 6 days left for this to change. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We toss. But we need the big phase or this is the garbage we end up with. This might be a March 2001 redux.What the heck was the last 10 minutes from you. Still a storm and it's and op run 150 plus hours out. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 is it still a storm? Yes. Not a major one. Take a break please. Look at the 162 hour panel, take a quick walk around your house, come back and look again. Then maybe talk some sense to me as to why a 992mb low sitting over the 40/70 BM with a QPF bomb over NYC is not a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i deleted it Lol no prob. Still going to show a nice winter storm. Interesting evolution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Considering the GFS has barely even shown a storm within a few days, if it's going back and forth over 5 days before one begins, I guess it's just expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why? There is a 1000mb low deepening east of Ocean City MD. John, yeah, there will be a storm I agree there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Idk how the heck that still popped that significant of a storm. H5 looked awful compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take a break please. Look at the 162 hour panel, take a quick walk around your house, come back and look again. Then maybe talk some sense to me as to why a 992mb low sitting over the 40/70 BM with a QPF bomb over NYC is not a major storm. h5 looked terrible, I hadn't checked the QPF panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't know what to say to you guys. Some of the worst analysis I have read in years. Go look at the maps from 156-168 and then take a 12 hour break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 h5 looked terrible, I hadn't checked the QPF panels. If that H5 map looks terrible to you, I think you need to let someone else do the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why? There is a 1000mb low deepening east of Ocean City MD. At the onset, but the rapidly deepening low through HR 162 has quite the CCB moving up NJ. Which then, the temps quickly drop. Amazing that the GFS is just hanging on to this. Just downright amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Think before you post please. This kind of crap is unnecessary at 162 hours out especially when you have 5 different people posting incorrect model analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Time for bed. The last page and a half hurt my head. Couldn't understand the negativity!! Big time qpf bomber on the GFS. We need to get through tomorrow. So many obsessed with this storm with a beaut today and another one on the way for many tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It was for sure not as amped as the 18z was though, John. The confluence looked the same and the block as you mentioned, also seemed like less phasing. Perhaps that is why it was weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Think before you post please. This kind of crap is unnecessary at 162 hours out especially when you have 5 different people posting incorrect model analysis.People live and die by the model runs and when it dosn't show what they want it to show they spew nonsense, happens all the time, but not to this extent. The gfs pulled it off... In a Pretty odd IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Think before you post please. This kind of crap is unnecessary at 162 hours out especially when you have 5 different people posting incorrect model analysis.it's my bad. Sometimes the non-stop model watching becomes tiresome. I think we all want this to be the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Think before you post please. This kind of crap is unnecessary at 162 hours out especially when you have 5 different people posting incorrect model analysis. You didn't think the evolution looked different at all? Still was a good set up. But initially it did look different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snow maps show widespread 10" plus and I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It was for sure not as amped as the 18z was though, John. The confluence looked the same and the block as you mentioned, also seemed like less phasing. Perhaps that is why it was weaker. The 18z was so amped it might have ended up as rain here. This is still going to change around, it's 5-6 days away for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What IS crazy with this event is that it has gone from a storm beginning midday Saturday to a storm beginning 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 People live and die by the model runs and when it dosn't show what they want it to show they spew nonsense, happens all the time, but not to this extent. The gfs pulled it off... In a Pretty odd IMHOThe trend today on the GFS has been for more of a flatter de-amped trough. That worries me. The GFS still pulled it off though, this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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