PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If the euro qpf 6 days out is 1.5. Expect to see some big time numbers get modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Bit off topic but the 12z GGEM has 3-4" total QPF through the end of its run, mostly frozen or freezing. Secretly trying to quell my excitement for the potential of this storm seeing how powerful it can be as forecasted and over such a wide area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro snow totals for the next week. Including todays. Just wow. Don't get me wrong. That is very impressive, BUT let's say I got 6 inches today, plus maybe 8 inches tomorrow night/Wednesday. That's 14 inches on the ground right there. That map is showing around 26 inches total for all 3 storms, or around a foot for the 3rd storm. Would have to think with the way the euro is modeling the this storm that the amounts may be much much more. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Don't get me wrong. That is very impressive, BUT let's say I got 6 inches today, plus maybe 8 inches tomorrow night/Wednesday. That's 14 inches on the ground right there. That map is showing around 26 inches total for all 3 storms, or around a foot for the 3rd storm. Would have to think with the way the euro is modeling the this storm that the amounts may be much much more. IMO. 1.5 qpf of frozen for the sunday/monday storm 6 days out the amounts will be prolific once we get closer. Seeing that much this far out is astonishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just for the kicks of it...the Euro is showing a 30" snow depth from Philly to Central and Northeast NJ and NYC by 174 hours. Toss a I guess. Winning, I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Don't get me wrong. That is very impressive, BUT let's say I got 6 inches today, plus maybe 8 inches tomorrow night/Wednesday. That's 14 inches on the ground right there. That map is showing around 26 inches total for all 3 storms, or around a foot for the 3rd storm. Would have to think with the way the euro is modeling the this storm that the amounts may be much much more. IMO. Yes, agreed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 ORH in New england sub forum says he expects this to be a fast mover in and out in 15 hours because the blocking isnt enough to slow the flow down enough. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My worry is that I hope I can make it home. IF it slows down a bit, I should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ORH in New england sub forum says he expects this to be a fast mover in and out in 15 hours because the blocking isnt enough to slow the flow down enough. Any thoughts? since when is 15 hours "fast?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ORH in New england sub forum says he expects this to be a fast mover in and out in 15 hours because the blocking isnt enough to slow the flow down enough. Any thoughts? The blocking is better than any other that we experienced for this winter. It's safe to say that this will go on for over 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 since when is 15 hours "fast?" To me a long duration event is 24+ hours of accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 To me a long duration event is 24+ hours of accumulating snow Pretty rare, PDII was just about 24, 96 was like 30+. Boxing Day was around 18. We've done quite well with 12-18 hour events if it ends up being a 'fast mover'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 To me a long duration event is 24+ hours of accumulating snow I can't even remember a storm where it snowed that long. 15 hours is plenty of time, especially if its a huge wound up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I can't even remember a storm where it snowed that long. 15 hours is plenty of time, especially if its a huge wound up system. PD2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I can't even remember a storm where it snowed that long. 15 hours is plenty of time, especially if its a huge wound up system. That is just my standard and judging by some of the recent responses too much to ask lol Any word on the 12z EURO ensembles yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro ensembles are amazing. Obviously not as amped up as the OP run but huge signal. Surface low from the SE states to OBX to the 40/70. Tons of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro ensembles are amazing. Obviously not as amped up as the OP run but huge signal. Surface low from the SE states to OBX to the 40/70. Tons of QPF.In the 1.5in. QPF range again? I just cant believe the amount of liquid being printed out 6 days from the storm, your right on it is a HUGE signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 PD2? Probably. Was only 13 at the time, so I don't remember the longevity off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Probably. Was only 13 at the time, so I don't remember the longevity off the top of my head. I do was up in sullivan county at kenoza lake and it snowed for 24+ hours. One of my favorite storms by far. I remember 96' very little though as i was only 10 at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Probably. Was only 13 at the time, so I don't remember the longevity off the top of my head. PDII lasted for 24 hours. This one will go on for at least 15 hours, but 24 hours is uncertain at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 96 was 30+ hours.. I worked 63 hours non stop. And then hauled snow with a dumptruck for weeks afterwards... I was 19 at the time. LOL I wish I had pictures of what Ive seen in that one. 15 foot snow drift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 PDII lasted for 24 hours. This one will go on for at least 15 hours, but 24 hours is uncertain.That blocking signal keeps on getting stronger it will only help to slow the system down even more as its bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z GFS out to 120. you can see the action starting to get together down south. also the confluence looking pretty strong as well in SE canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 out to 135 looks like this is going to go negative early according to my SV maps ( warmer solution ) let the run play out first but this thing is LOADED with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 primary to WV, miller B outcome from the looks of things from 147 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This looks fine to my eyes. Huge signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 This looks fine to my eyes. Huge signal from my SV maps its inland and LP is on the coast literally. warm run for the EC except inland with 850mb temp profiles. regardless the signal is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is the warmest, Euro, CMC are hits, NAVGEM is supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is the warmest, Euro, CMC are hits, NAVGEM is suppressed this is why im siding with the EURO. its been fire lately. the signal is still there but it is warm and with that confluence it has a better shot of OTS than that kind of track IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Everytime I feel like typing a number I erase it . You really have to be inside 3- 4 days before you`re really sure . I love the Euro s idea of the block , it really sets the whole thing up . If this gets to OBX it comes ,.You have the chance of a cold QPF bomb combo . Rare to have ensembles see 1 inch of liq 7 days out . Once Wed gets off the field the whole model universe gets a clear look at this . Its a high end threat , but man all of us have seen this before . That said 10 today 5 wed , and Sun ? theres a chance that more snow falls at KNYC in this 7 day period than we had all year , and this has been a good year . Thats whats on the table The younger posters coming up today don't realize how lucky they are as I could count on one hand the memorable snows during the 80's. This recent era especially since 94-96 is really raising the bar for great snowstorms and snowfall seasons around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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