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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Not really as modeled, we would want the energy to dig more southeastward and close off like what the 00z run had. This is more of your run of the mill Miller B instead of something more historic.

I respectfully disagree.  A sub 990 at the benchmark w/ gulf moisture.  Yeah, that's not a 6-10" storm.

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I respectfully disagree.  A sub 990 at the benchmark w/ gulf moisture.  Yeah, that's not a 6-10" storm.

The 850mb temps don't look great so don't expect great ratios unless things change in that department. Optimal would be more like -4 to -8C. Yes I'm being a bit snobby regarding this threat. I think we all want the real big one to cap off the season.

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I respectfully disagree. A sub 990 at the benchmark w/ gulf moisture. Yeah, that's not a 6-10" storm.

I agree but also take into account this 6 days out and the GFS can underestimate QPF as well. No alarms yet, wait till the EURO at 1 to see some consistency. The run wasnt all the cold either for optimal ratios
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The 850mb temps don't look great so don't expect great ratios unless things change in that department. Optimal would be more like -4 to -8C. Yes I'm being a bit snobby regarding this threat. I think we all want the real big one to cap off the season.

It's important to note the potential, but you still have to be realistic. While the potential could be on par with some of our past snow giants, the reality could be completely different. This is especially true this far out.

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Why do you guys keep you`re focus on the precip field . Do any of you see 24 MB deepening in 18 hours , 1005 to 981

Between 156- 174 from Hatteras to the BM .

Doesn`t get any more classic than that

Also have to keep in mind at this range your looking at synoptics and not snowfall accumulations. This is still a week out and snow totals should be the last of your worries
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Why do you guys keep you`re focus on the precip field . Do  any of you see 24 MB deepening in 18 hours ,  1005 to 981

Between 156- 174 from Hatteras to the BM .

 

Doesn`t get any more classic than that 

Strongly agree. QPF forecasts are not handled well over large timeframes. That there is a signal for significant qpf and rapid deepening is encouraging for a possible big event.

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People don't learn here. Just look at our current storm.. from nothing ..48 hra ago...to almost 6+ inches.

I have no doubt that this will be a major snow storm for the area. The jury is just out on how major.

 

If you're a snow weenie it doesn't get much better than the next ten days or so. What an epic stretch.

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Well, yes, snowfall maps do show a 6-10" storm here. However, it is so far out it could be more, or less

 

 

agree, its so far out I don't get why people are locking onto solutions...it could also NOT be a big event as well. models can give and they can taketh away. Lots of possibilities still on table 5 days away considering the current storm was not modeled properly 5 days away

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excuse my ignorance...I keep seeing that it shows rain for southern nj and coastal areas...what is causing this? and why wasn't this the case on last nights 00z run? Do we need a pure Miller A for that...thanks in advance!

I wouldn't pay attention to those specifics at this time, they will change 1000 times before now and then.

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Just look at H5 at 165 and look at the precip field.  How many lows, in that place, with that strength, threw back lighter precip into NJ/NYC. 

 

Nope.  Set up is amazing.  Now can we hang on for the next several days...

 

That said, time for another Jeb Walk.  I'm savoring every second of this week!

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Strongly agree. QPF forecasts are not handled well over large timeframes. That there is a signal for significant qpf and rapid deepening is encouraging for a possible big event.

If we get  that transient block , its coming 

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It has all the markings of a blockbuster. I think all here deep down looking at the guidance knows where this is going but prob Wana get thru wed before going there.

I agree best neg pna set up ur Gona see. Best 7 day period ur Gona see. And 3 winter storm warnings in 7 days is just rare period

 

Plenty of time to fine tune the potential especially after the Wednesday storm pulls out. How amped up and

deep along with the strength of the Davis Strait block will keep things really interesting here. The timing alone

matches up with snowfall climo around here.

 

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I was just about to post that. Huge storm signal.

The posts regarding "only 6-10" is wayyy too premature. This storm will have TONS more snowfall than that currently forecasted on the GEFS. Just have to sit back and let this play out. Like you just said we have pretty strong signal for a BIG storm on the EC

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Would also like to add my SV maps for the 12z GEFS run shows this storm lasting 30+ hours so it will be a fairly long duration as well, couple that with a rapidly deepening system from NC-BM to around 980mb maybe lower you have yourself a blizzard with major snowfall for sure

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Plenty of time to fine tune the potential especially after the Wednesday storm pulls out. How amped up and

deep along with the strength of the Davis Strait block will keep things really interesting here. The timing alone

matches up with snowfall climo around here.

 

attachicon.gifnysfreq.jpg

Everytime I  feel like typing a number I erase it .  You really have to be inside 3- 4 days before you`re really sure .

I love the Euro s idea of the block , it really sets the whole thing up .

If this gets to OBX it comes ,.You have the chance of a cold QPF bomb combo . Rare to have ensembles see 1 inch of  liq 7 days out .

Once Wed gets off the field the whole model universe gets a clear look at this  . Its a high end threat , but man 

all of us have seen this before .  That said

 10 today  5 wed , and Sun ?  theres a chance that  more snow falls at KNYC in this 7 day period than we had all year , and this has been a good year .

Thats whats on the table 

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