Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even if this storm were to deliver the goods in a big way it is going to be a hell of an order to beat a 93' type storm. 93' had heavy snow down to the gulf coast. Fun tracking this whole week that is for sure A storm like 93 would probably end up a coastal hugger with ptype issues anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This run looks pretty amped despite the confluence and increased blocking..probably will be a warm(er) solution just glancing at it. Hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 INCOMING at 150... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Miller B incoming. This is going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For those who are wondering, what you see north of the international border is a confluent flow and sprawling high pressure on the south side of the PV. A piece of the EPO ridge has forced higher heights southward over Canada north of the Great Lakes which is acting like a bit of a block. The trough north of New England is acting as a psuedo-50/50 although not textbook by any means. The energetic trough entering the Central US will eventually be forced southeast underneath this confluence and blocking. As PVA begins the surface low will form into the TN Valley. In this setup it then becomes important to note where the confluence is and how far north and west the secondary can develop. If the GFS is correct you can assume there will be significant cold air drainage due to the high pressure and the surface low will therefore redevelop near the baroclinic zone and or near the coast. This has significant winter storm written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Heavy snow hour 159. Low near the VA/NC border on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hard to believe I'm reading this model and watching it snow beautifully --- have a Winter Storm Warning for tomorrow night on it's way --- and am looking at the GFS raking us at 159. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Man what a bomb, sub 996mb low at 162 east of the VA capes. Heavy snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This run is going to be a monster at 162 hours. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow. This is a bomb at 162. Jeezus (or Earthlight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 She's bombing now, hr 165 east of Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This run is going to be a monster at 162 hours. Get ready. Mother of god pic worthy? Don't think anything can beat last nights DGEX though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow. This is a bomb at 162. Jeezus (or Earthlight). Mother of earthlight! Haha but man what a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 165 is nearly an avatar if there weren't some pockets of lighter stuff (convective feedback??) Sub 990 off of the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sub 992mb off the NJ coast. Heavy snow. Mostly rain for Philly and southern NJ. (since I know it will be asked) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 IF we could get that shortwave to dig a bit farther SE we'd be talking about a much bigger storm on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Without looking at the maps, it looks like 111.2" of snow in my backyard after 168. (kidding, of course Weatherboy followers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Bombing near the benchmark. 980's. CCB still hammering us. Plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 168h- 988mb LP south of LI... beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The shortwave is forced east along the lines of what i wrote at the top of this page...as you can see the primary literally cannot move any further due to the nw flow and confluent flow/high pressure...crazy solution but within the envelope of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 6-10" at 10:1. Thermal profiles look okay. -0 to -4 850mb temps and cooling as the storm moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Cant believe this...Pretty epic week on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This isn't the historic storm that the 00z GFS had which showed the SW closing off at H5 multiple times, but this is still a SECS border line MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 6-10" at 10:1. Thermal profiles look okay. -0 to -4 850mb temps and cooling as the storm moves northeast. That set up screams WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY more than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Look out west at 192, another storm? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Very nice storm here...but doesn't seem epic by any means. Not on this model run at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That set up screams WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY more than that... Not really as modeled, we would want the energy to dig more southeastward and close off like what the 00z run had. This is more of your run of the mill Miller B instead of something more historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Weenie maps have 24-30+ inches total accumulated by 180 hours anywhere NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This isn't the historic storm that the 00z GFS had which showed the SW closing off at H5 multiple times, but this is still a SECS border line MECS. 168 hours away...specifics aren't important. Potential is high for the biggest storm in years based on the h5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.