REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 The ECMWF ensembles look absolutely insane for this storm on pretty much every site from VA to Maine.... Generally, there's a consensus for over 18" already. The EURO loves this storm so much. Like john said this storm can still go down the toilet but regardless having an opportunity to track a beast like this is an experience whether it happens or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When models and their ensembles are hopping like this, then we got huge potential on our hands. The biggest NESIS storm of all time, Superstorm of 1993 was nailed by the models several days before it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Everytime I see a " LOCK " March 2001 sets me straight , if we get inside 3 days I will do a snow dance . I love this system , I have for 5 days , The Euro ensembles loves it , we have gotten every break , the models looks great , it wants to snow here . What could go wrong ? MARCH 2001 . More interested to see the 12z Euro for Tomorrow nite , but thats just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even if the storm doesn't work out, we still have the best DGEX run of our entire lives to save and stare at for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 When models and their ensembles are hopping like this, then we got huge potential on our hands. The biggest NESIS storm of all time, Superstorm of 1993 was nailed by the models several days before it occurred. 93' is as much a rarity as you can get with the snowfall it delivered and also the areas that saw snow that may not see it for a LONG time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Whether we get our HECS with a perfect track or not, the signal for a huge storm is alarming. Every single GEFS member has a powerhouse low pressure system and huge closed shortwave traversing the country...this is going to be a big system and a huge snow producer for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even if the storm doesn't work out, we still have the best DGEX run of our entire lives to save and stare at for years to come. Lol, exactly. Complete with a 42" dot in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thread title should be changed to Feb 10th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Somehow this slipped by....but the Canadian has your run of the mill MECS/HECS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How many inches potential (not forecast) are we talking about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How many inches potential (not forecast) are we talking about here? Feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How many inches potential (not forecast) are we talking about here? If you take the potential and drag it out fully with the perfect solution we're talking feet of snow. But that is not wise to expect or even think about at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 If you take the potential and drag it out fully with the perfect solution we're talking feet of snow. But that is not wise to expect or even think about at this range. One thing impressive is the overwhelming signals for the models for something like this thus far john. Whether it hits full force or not im happy to be part of watching this storm develop or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lol, exactly. Complete with a 42" dot in NC. Love that 42" lolli down near the VA/NC border. Climo definitely supports that as the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is not your classic setup but it works. If the GEFS and ECMWF Ens are generally correct we are likely looking at one of the most active weeks of winter weather here in recent memory. A few weeks ago when I made the post talking about the pattern evolution this is what I was envisioning and it is almost insane to see it playing out on the models as it is. Anyway..here is a massive EPO ridge which now is modeled to feature transient blocking into Greenland and the Davis Straight. There is perfectly positioned psuedo-blocking near the 50/50 position and that will force well timed confluence to our north with a strong high pressure over New England. The trough moving across the United States is forced underneath and to a position near the Mid Atlantic. The timing, strength of the incoming shortwave and positioning/amplitude of the SE Ridge will determine where the primary goes. But somebody from the N-Central US into the Mid Atlantic or New England is getting a significant event if this modeling is even close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like two possible outcomes here... 1) The trough has more interaction with the PV out west and the storm cuts somewhere to the mid-west. We get some good over running snows before a transfer occurs to the coast. Or option 2 2) We have more of a true miller A wound up bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lol, exactly. Complete with a 42" dot in NC. That's basically for the week correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's basically for the week correct? It's the only precipitation in the period, so it's the one storm. But yeah, it's enough snow for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's basically for the week correct? Hrs 84-192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hrs 84-192 Sorry haven't had my coffee yet and going on 2.5 hours of sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thanks. Bringing back 2010 memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like two possible outcomes here... 1) The trough has more interaction with the PV out west and the storm cuts somewhere to the mid-west. We get some good over running snows before a transfer occurs to the coast. Or option 2 2) We have more of a true miller A wound up bomb. Ill take 2 please If it goes as modeled we are talking an epic period (though not on par with mid Atlantic 2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone see this? Upton NWS, Upton, NY THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS REGARDING THIS STORM. EVEN THE 18Z DGEX HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS 6Z SUN...HANGING OUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. TIMING IS TRENDING LATER...SO IMPACTS MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL SUN NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES SUN...AS WELL AS THE 50 POP SUN NIGHT. DESPITE THE TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES...THE LOW SHOULD BE A DEEP ONE. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS 980S...BUT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN THE 970S S OF LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even if the storm doesn't work out, we still have the best DGEX run of our entire lives to save and stare at for years to come.The girl that got away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone see this? Upton Yep. As an anecdote: 1996 was also 980mb and 1993 was 960mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yep. As an anecdote: 1996 was also 980mb and 1993 was 960mb Even if this storm were to deliver the goods in a big way it is going to be a hell of an order to beat a 93' type storm. 93' had heavy snow down to the gulf coast. Fun tracking this whole week that is for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone see this? Upton Holy smolly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If we do end up with a low in the 980's or lower with that strong of a high to the north we could see the first widespread blizzard conditions since Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Perfectly timed Davis straight to Central Canada transient block from 84-120 hour on the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is not a perfect setup by any means and I would not be totally shocked if we get a bomb or p-type issues...but man, that blocking coming south is perfectly timed and the psuedo-50/50 gets my KU bones tingling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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