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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Hard to believe we have a thread this far out... Yikes.

I thought the same, Its Thursday, as modeled this potential storm would be next Friday night so we are still 8days out. Potential yes, let's see what happens.. 17 Euro runs to go and 32 GFS runs to see a change .. Let's do an over under on how many runs each model loses the storm.. I'll put the line at 10 for Euro

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I thought the same, Its Thursday, as modeled this potential storm would be next Friday night so we are still 8days out. Potential yes, let's see what happens.. 17 Euro runs to go and 32 GFS runs to see a change .. Let's do an over under on how many runs each model loses the storm.. I'll put the line at 10 for Euro

 

Yup. Typical for the Euro to lose a massive storm after several runs. Remember the other massive storms? It remained consistent in the end of the LR and then lose it in the medium range, then returns near the short range. 

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i dont get these types of posts, it's just a weather board, who cares if people want to post on threats 8 days away? dont read it if you aren't into big-time speculation.  it's hard to have a conversation about whether it will be 28 or 30 today

I thought the same, Its Thursday, as modeled this potential storm would be next Friday night so we are still 8days out. Potential yes, let's see what happens.. 17 Euro runs to go and 32 GFS runs to see a change .. Let's do an over under on how many runs each model loses the storm.. I'll put the line at 10 for Euro

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This is the best set up this winter period at this range for a major snowstorm from DC to Boston .

That`s  a large effected area on the East Coast .

if it happens storms like this is  front page news , and if this  fizzles only we really knew or cared about it . ( its coming ) .

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Am I missing something? Qpf bomb?, wound up low? 2" qpf?, all i see is .5-.7"qpf and a 1010mb low .. Average snowstorm. Nice track nice high placement. Are my maps not working

This is why details like QPF or the placement of R/S line should not be discussed this far out. Just note the potential for a major event and that's it. 

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i dont get these types of posts, it's just a weather board, who cares if people want to post on threats 8 days away? dont read it if you aren't into big-time speculation. it's hard to have a conversation about whether it will be 28 or 30 today

Lol no need to get offensive all I'm saying is it's a bit early to jump on this, I love forecasting storms, and hope we get 2 feet plus, but this is going to be a long 8 days for us if we continue like this. My point is I don't remember ever starting a thread for a storm 8-9 days out

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Lol no need to get offensive all I'm saying is it's a bit early to jump on this, I love forecasting storms, and hope we get 2 feet plus, but this is going to be a long 8 days for us if we continue like this. My point is I don't remember ever starting a thread for a storm 8-9 days out

I see an inch through CNJ , maybe my maps are off . 

The qpf comment was made as it came N out of the SE states 

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He said nothing about a r/s line. And there is a huge difference between .5-.7 And 2-2.5 qpf. That warrants a question ...

It was just an example, there are many on here that discuss r/s lines from a system over a week out. This could be an ugly period as far as these threads go for the next 10-14 days, and I'm laying off and just focusing on the more immediate potential and taking it day by day.

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It was just an example, there are many on here that discuss r/s lines from a system over a week out. This could be an ugly period as far as these threads go for the next 10-14 days, and I'm laying off and just focusing on the more immediate potential and taking it day by day.

I like how Monday  may have snuck up on us, on Tues John wrote , dont fall asleep on Monday  1 at a time 

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This is the best set up this winter period at this range for a major snowstorm from DC to Boston .

That`s a large effected area on the East Coast .

if it happens storms like this is front page news , and if this fizzles only we really knew or cared about it . ( its coming ) .

The setup is there and there is no doubt about that. Doubt its going to fizzle since the models have been showing this threat consistently the past few days. We can narrow down what it will have, moisture, cold air, blocking looks to be developing up towards greenland and also the feb 5th storm creating a 50/50 for this threat as well. Pretty good ingredients if i must say so myself but far from guaranteed

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No I definitely do, just thought my maps weren't loading right, i wish we were closer in

The key will be the mid-week storm moving into the 50/50 position and locking that high into place. Then the strong wave develops underneath and tracks north but has no choice but to redevelop because that high isn't going anywhere. Over running to coastal.

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I love all the hype and storm possibilities coming up but I think we need to pump the brakes just a tad. With all the talk already about next weekend's storm you would think its 4-5 days away. I can't count how many times storms looked promising (maybe not quite this promising) 10 days out. Lets at least get through this weekend. I'm as big of a weenie as the next person and I'm praying to anything that will listen that the storm happens as modeled. I've just seen the enormous letdown time and time again when we all get excited way to early. Maybe my unusual apprehensive-ness will be a good luck charm for this storm. Sent from my HTC ONE

I'm glad this thread is started because it's easier to follow since this is the greatest threat. I like the separation even if they are out in fantasy land. Regardless if this becomes a cutter as Dino stated the possibilty in the post above, it will be educational to track.

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The key will be the mid-week storm moving into the 50/50 position and locking that high into place. Then the strong wave develops underneath and tracks north but has no choice but to redevelop because that high isn't going anywhere. Over running to coastal.

That locked in HP would be pretty important. That would be due to our feb 5/6th storm helping out so that REALLY helps to enhance this threat if it indeed tends to be correct

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I just texted my girlfriend:

Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow.

Her: You're funny

Me: Why?

Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow?

Me: Me

Her: Weirdo

Me: You just don't understand it, and never will.

Haha i will gladly get your back on that one. Florida will always be there ( barring some biblical zombie attack ) but a nice blizzard potential like next weekend? DO NOT want to miss that

I did that least year with feb. blizzard my wanted to go to grand bahama island and i was like "nah i have to work its going to be really busy with the snow" she knew that it was because i wanted to see the snow instead. Weenie heart is hard to break

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