IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Snow maps are a blanket 12-15" over most of the area. QPF is good. In reality this storm is probably 20-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So are you saying we switch to ice? Not at all, I was just pointing out that the steady supply of cold air. This storm has blocking to work with, otherwise the high would slide east and we would warm more aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hard to believe we have a thread this far out... Yikes. I thought the same, Its Thursday, as modeled this potential storm would be next Friday night so we are still 8days out. Potential yes, let's see what happens.. 17 Euro runs to go and 32 GFS runs to see a change .. Let's do an over under on how many runs each model loses the storm.. I'll put the line at 10 for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The massive 50/50 low is why the high never retreats, happened in 1996 and PDII Yeah I know I sound like a weenie but the similarities to PDII are definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For those looking at the small details, please don't. It's what matters aloft and the pieces in the pattern that matter most such as the 50/50, the confluence, the low level cold, and other features. To drive yourself less crazy, start with the potential snows on Monday and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I thought the same, Its Thursday, as modeled this potential storm would be next Friday night so we are still 8days out. Potential yes, let's see what happens.. 17 Euro runs to go and 32 GFS runs to see a change .. Let's do an over under on how many runs each model loses the storm.. I'll put the line at 10 for Euro Yup. Typical for the Euro to lose a massive storm after several runs. Remember the other massive storms? It remained consistent in the end of the LR and then lose it in the medium range, then returns near the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i dont get these types of posts, it's just a weather board, who cares if people want to post on threats 8 days away? dont read it if you aren't into big-time speculation. it's hard to have a conversation about whether it will be 28 or 30 today I thought the same, Its Thursday, as modeled this potential storm would be next Friday night so we are still 8days out. Potential yes, let's see what happens.. 17 Euro runs to go and 32 GFS runs to see a change .. Let's do an over under on how many runs each model loses the storm.. I'll put the line at 10 for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is the best set up this winter period at this range for a major snowstorm from DC to Boston . That`s a large effected area on the East Coast . if it happens storms like this is front page news , and if this fizzles only we really knew or cared about it . ( its coming ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Am I missing something? Qpf bomb?, wound up low? 2" qpf?, all i see is .5-.7"qpf and a 1010mb low .. Average snowstorm. Nice track nice high placement. Are my maps not working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Am I missing something? Qpf bomb?, wound up low? 2" qpf?, all i see is .5-.7"qpf and a 1010mb low .. Average snowstorm. Nice track nice high placement. Are my maps not working This is why details like QPF or the placement of R/S line should not be discussed this far out. Just note the potential for a major event and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i dont get these types of posts, it's just a weather board, who cares if people want to post on threats 8 days away? dont read it if you aren't into big-time speculation. it's hard to have a conversation about whether it will be 28 or 30 today Lol no need to get offensive all I'm saying is it's a bit early to jump on this, I love forecasting storms, and hope we get 2 feet plus, but this is going to be a long 8 days for us if we continue like this. My point is I don't remember ever starting a thread for a storm 8-9 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is why details like QPF or the placement of R/S line should not be discussed this far out. Just note the potential for a major event and that's it.Exactly which is why I said nice low track high placement etc. but I did read someone state 2" qpf and "qpf bomb" .. My maps don't show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lol no need to get offensive all I'm saying is it's a bit early to jump on this, I love forecasting storms, and hope we get 2 feet plus, but this is going to be a long 8 days for us if we continue like this. My point is I don't remember ever starting a thread for a storm 8-9 days out I see an inch through CNJ , maybe my maps are off . The qpf comment was made as it came N out of the SE states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is why details like QPF or the placement of R/S line should not be discussed this far out. Just note the potential for a major event and that's it. He said nothing about a r/s line. And there is a huge difference between .5-.7 And 2-2.5 qpf. That warrants a question ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 He said nothing about a r/s line. And there is a huge difference between .5-.7 And 2-2.5 qpf. That warrants a question ... Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I see an inch through CNJ , maybe my maps are off . The qpf comment was made as it came N out of the SE states Ok that's about what I see. Generally less from NYC north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Snow maps are a blanket 12-15" over most of the area. QPF is 2-2.5". In reality this storm is probably 20-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 He said nothing about a r/s line. And there is a huge difference between .5-.7 And 2-2.5 qpf. That warrants a question ... It was just an example, there are many on here that discuss r/s lines from a system over a week out. This could be an ugly period as far as these threads go for the next 10-14 days, and I'm laying off and just focusing on the more immediate potential and taking it day by day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 WxBell and SV not matching up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Am I missing something? Qpf bomb?, wound up low? 2" qpf?, all i see is .5-.7"qpf and a 1010mb low .. Average snowstorm. Nice track nice high placement. Are my maps not working You don't see the similarities to PDII? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It was just an example, there are many on here that discuss r/s lines from a system over a week out. This could be an ugly period as far as these threads go for the next 10-14 days, and I'm laying off and just focusing on the more immediate potential and taking it day by day. I like how Monday may have snuck up on us, on Tues John wrote , dont fall asleep on Monday 1 at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Snow maps are a blanket 12-15" over most of the area. QPF is 2-2.5". In reality this storm is probably 20-30". I went back and edited that post. The 2.5" included the mid-week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I went back and edited that post. The 2.5" included the mid-week system. Np, thanks for clearing it up. Keep up the good pbp's ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You don't see the similarities to PDII? No I definitely do, just thought my maps weren't loading right, i wish we were closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is the best set up this winter period at this range for a major snowstorm from DC to Boston . That`s a large effected area on the East Coast . if it happens storms like this is front page news , and if this fizzles only we really knew or cared about it . ( its coming ) . The setup is there and there is no doubt about that. Doubt its going to fizzle since the models have been showing this threat consistently the past few days. We can narrow down what it will have, moisture, cold air, blocking looks to be developing up towards greenland and also the feb 5th storm creating a 50/50 for this threat as well. Pretty good ingredients if i must say so myself but far from guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 No I definitely do, just thought my maps weren't loading right, i wish we were closer in The key will be the mid-week storm moving into the 50/50 position and locking that high into place. Then the strong wave develops underneath and tracks north but has no choice but to redevelop because that high isn't going anywhere. Over running to coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I love all the hype and storm possibilities coming up but I think we need to pump the brakes just a tad. With all the talk already about next weekend's storm you would think its 4-5 days away. I can't count how many times storms looked promising (maybe not quite this promising) 10 days out. Lets at least get through this weekend. I'm as big of a weenie as the next person and I'm praying to anything that will listen that the storm happens as modeled. I've just seen the enormous letdown time and time again when we all get excited way to early. Maybe my unusual apprehensive-ness will be a good luck charm for this storm. Sent from my HTC ONE I'm glad this thread is started because it's easier to follow since this is the greatest threat. I like the separation even if they are out in fantasy land. Regardless if this becomes a cutter as Dino stated the possibilty in the post above, it will be educational to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The key will be the mid-week storm moving into the 50/50 position and locking that high into place. Then the strong wave develops underneath and tracks north but has no choice but to redevelop because that high isn't going anywhere. Over running to coastal. That locked in HP would be pretty important. That would be due to our feb 5/6th storm helping out so that REALLY helps to enhance this threat if it indeed tends to be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just texted my girlfriend: Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow. Her: You're funny Me: Why? Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow? Me: Me Her: Weirdo Me: You just don't understand it, and never will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just texted my girlfriend: Me: I would be pissed if I had booked the trip to Florida next weekend and missed out on the big snow. Her: You're funny Me: Why? Her: Because who gets pissed off at missing snow? Me: Me Her: Weirdo Me: You just don't understand it, and never will. Haha i will gladly get your back on that one. Florida will always be there ( barring some biblical zombie attack ) but a nice blizzard potential like next weekend? DO NOT want to miss thatI did that least year with feb. blizzard my wanted to go to grand bahama island and i was like "nah i have to work its going to be really busy with the snow" she knew that it was because i wanted to see the snow instead. Weenie heart is hard to break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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