SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The high is so strong and anchored in this event I don't see it being anything but snow, if we just miss out by a nose on the 2/5 event it's hard to see how this setup wouldn't yield mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The high is so strong and anchored in this event I don't see it being anything but snow, if we just miss out by a nose on the 2/5 event it's hard to see how this setup wouldn't yield mostly snow You've been consistent forecasting this system and im with you. A 1040+HP in SE canada is going to create pretty much a brick wall confluence up there forcing redevelopment off or south of the delmarva. The EURO in my opinion will be the model of choice for this storm it seems to have a knack for these southern stream systems. Also bluewave posted a possible davis straight block as well and couple that with a 50/50 from the wednesday storm this storm "should" be a given if this all occurs to make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Chicago gets CRUSHED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The gfs depiction looks very kooky to say the least, expect a lot of strange model outputs for this until midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JB is starting to honk Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi52m Let me be the first one to say it. The set up for the storm Sat-Mon looks like something that could evolve into a blizzard I love that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JB is starting to honk Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi52m Let me be the first one to say it. The set up for the storm Sat-Mon looks like something that could evolve into a blizzard I love that look Yeh says it cuts off at the BM and goes bezerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Could we expect anything different from Joe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll be traveling home on the 10th, probably in a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Gambatese Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How is this storm looking for Eatontown nj Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How is this storm looking for Eatontown nj Sent from my SCH-I545 way to early to tell. Before that one we have two others to deal with. Anything the models are showing now are purely for entertainment purposes. That said i would lean heavy toward the Euro in this kind of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Gambatese Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks for the info Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is the type of system that can drop 18"+ over a large area if not up to 2 feet if everything goes as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJohn Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What potential snowfall does this have for Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 What potential snowfall does this have for Long Island? IF all goes to plan and that HP anchors itself this can be a storm that can deliver 16"+ from DC-BOSTON. by Tuesday/Wednesday the picture should be ALOT clearer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ATTACK OF THE MILLER B's EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1054 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014VALID 12Z WED FEB 05 2014 - 12Z SUN FEB 09 2014...STORM PATTERN TO CONTINUE COAST TO COAST THROUGH THE MEDIUMRANGE...AN ENERGETIC, SPLIT FLOW IS PROGGED BY ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICALMODELS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THESECOND-OF-TWO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WAVES EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NATIONAMONG THE 00Z/02 GUIDANCE WAS EASILY SORTED OUT BY LOOKING ATMULTI-DAY TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS--WITH THE MIDDLE-GROUNDSTANCE OF THE ECENS MEAN HOLDING UP BEST. THE GEFS IS A SLOWOUTLIER--THE CMCE A FAST, WEAK OUTLIER.AS PER THE ECENS MEAN, THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF CYCLONES SHOULDTRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN, ACROSS THE GULF STATES, THEN NORTHEASTASTRIDE THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTTELECONNECTS WITH THE NEW DEEP COLD OVER THE ALASKA REGION. RAINAND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES, WITHRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT AND ITS WAVES TO THE EAST OFTHE ROCKIES, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. ONCE THEY REACHTHE APPALACHIANS, BOTH MAJOR WAVES--DAYS 3 AND 7--LOOK TO BESPLIT, MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS, WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD-AIR DAMMINGEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.CISCO http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GGEM has nothing again and the Euro is nothing like the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GGEM has nothing again and the Euro is nothing like the 00z run. Please explain euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The euro has a similar evolution at 12z its splits the energy so there are 2 center 36 hours apart. The difference is at 12z the second more impressive feature that was shown at 0z gets shoved under the confluence and heads east. Nothing to be alarmed 7 to 8 days out. Still has 2 system feature. Both get to the BM. Can't think every OP is gona be a carbon copy. Get thru WED and this threat isn't Going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I found this euro run to be spectacular ! While it doesn't show as much snow on it's qpf maps and snow maps....it stays below freezing basically the entire storm for Wednesday, gives us 6-8" of snow and the Saturday storm slides off to our south giving use merely flurries, with another developing and sliding off to our south for Sunday. I think it's where we want to be 6-7 days out ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I found this euro run to be spectacular ! While it doesn't show as much snow on it's qpf maps and snow maps....it stays below freezing basically the entire storm for Wednesday, gives us 6-8" of snow and the Saturday storm slides off to our south giving use merely flurries, with another developing and sliding off to our south for Sunday. I think it's where we want to be 6-7 days out !This thread is specifically for the 9th. The 00z Euro was epic. The 12z is basically zilch. Another run, another solution. I just don't think this is as much of a guarantee as people are making it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its a week off. Best to say there is potential for a storm and leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This thread is specifically for the 9th. The 00z Euro was epic. The 12z is basically zilch. Another run, another solution. I just don't think this is as much of a guarantee as people are making it to be. It's not-I think this could still be a cutter given the unfavorable NAO. Any higher heights we can get around western Greenland would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any snow potential threads are basically all banter until we get to within a few days of the event. These storms are made or broken on small details that the models just can't resolve out very far except on the rare occasion when they get a 120-240 snow signal correct. Think of how many memorable snows suddenly popped up in the short term of 120 hrs or under. weenie world until crunch time buddy lol. in all seriousness though this threat does have legit legs and needs to be monitored. we all need to start taking the models seriously in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. the models "should" start to see if the 50/50 low is made from the Wednesday storm and if the higher heights towards the davis straight like posted this morning will come to fruition as this would lock in the arctic high and prevent this from cutting and instead going under the confluence and redevelop off the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS back to showing a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Details??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Details??? Overrunning snow up to 180 or so but a coastal forming right on the delmarva up to the NJ shore. Warm for the coast and --- 180 hours away. Storm signal remains. EDIT, for the nearby interior, it shows about a TON" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Secondary runs too inside the benchmark for the coast. Inland gets demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks for the info sounds like it's definitely sniffing it out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That primary looks to cut north and looks too strong, it should feel the snowpack and the friction of the Apps to a faster coastal transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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