REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah. 992 low east of NJ hugging the coast. It's warm, but it's there. For 180 or so hours, that's what is most important. Man, this is going to be one long week with limited sleep... You said it but you get that feeling that this may be our storm from DC-BOSTON i think. Last year and this one really put up an arguement that although teleconnectors are important no matter you slice them if the stars align you'll get a storm anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What I really like about 0z is it moved to less amplified with yields the colder solution. This whole pattern is about getting weaker lows that don't cut too close and plenty of overunning precipitation. Lets hope this stays less amplified and the under 120 northward trend isn't too much. today yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 From HM before last nights Euro run: The biggest difference between the ECMWF and GFS is in the stratosphere and how they handle the PV. The GFS suite for a full 24hrs' worth of runs has suggested a stronger stratospheric disturbance and west -NAO. If this feature is legitimate, this fantasy-land, overexposed storm will actually become a real possibility. Let's see if the ECMWF/EPS head in that direction. Watch the PV - NAO sector ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What I really like about 0z is it moved to less amplified with yields the colder solution. This whole pattern is about getting weaker lows that don't cut too close and plenty of overunning precipitation. Lets hope this stays less amplified and the under 120 northward trend isn't too much. today MSLP_North32America_168.gif yesterday MSLP_North32America_192.gif Yep. It's something DT would say positively tilted SW don't cut , they find there way east of the moutians . One a SW goes neg in the panhandle it's gona lift the ridge in font of it . We ve been saying for a few weeks now , keep em weaker and they will come under the confluence . Any modeling this week that shows u early deepening in the run you can shut ur computer off , it will cut . And I don't buy that I've liked this weekend system for 5 days now because I really bit on the ensembles . Now the operational has followed the control. But haven't spent too much time on this one because I think tomorrow is a big deal and the euro has now made Wednesday system a more widespread colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The whole overnight model suite looked much improved for this threat and emphasizing the strength of that 1040 HP in SE canada. By tommorow and tuesday if the models continue to honk on the coastal for this storm ill be very excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And I also like the trend of the euro ensembles and GEFS showing more Davis Strait blocking now which if strong enough would allow more amplitude and more heavier snow potential. EDH101-192.gif gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_32.png We seem to rally in every event this year. When we need a trend we get a trend. Sounds corny but I said this a few weeks ago It just wants to snow here this year. Sometimes that stuff happens. Been scorched so many times , I'm happy when the atmosphere throws us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GFS really digging the trough out west. Nice gradient pattern in the east with a low over the TX panhandle at hour 150 and arctic high pressure centered over the eastern Lakes. My only concern has been the tendency to weaken this dome of high pressure some as we draw closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is gearing up for another big storm at hour 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hour 156 trough going negative tilt out west. Low over northern TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Massive hit incoming, low redeveloping over the deep south. High pressure holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is definitely a Sunday/Monday event now on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Primary to southern Illinois. Secondary mid-atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is definitely a Sunday/Monday event now on the GFS. Yeah rjay suggested changing the title..should be 9th-10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snow moving in hour 168-171. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rain for DC/Philly. BooHoo for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 benchmark http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rain for DC/Philly. BooHoo for them.you just jixed nyc with that comment :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Massive over running continues at 177. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thank god for the secondary on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 benchmark http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml a SEXY benchmark hit doorman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 you just jixed nyc with that comment :-) Rain in NYC proper is fine with me as long as it's snow in NNJ . 850's warming some now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rain for DC/Philly. BooHoo for them. Your life must be sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thank god for the secondary on this run The primary hangs on forever. I'd like the primary to track a bit further northeast so that we get more WAA and then die faster so that the coastal takes over sooner. This is sloppy verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Your life must be sad. It's called a joke. DC can't buy a storm and Philly is the new snow capital of the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Secondary finally gets going at 189 but it's inland south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I would wait until after the wednesday system before we get serious about this threat. We see what's been happening on short notice ob these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One of the longest duration events you'll ever see on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rain in NYC proper is fine with me as long as it's snow in NNJ . 850's warming some now. You're not exactly making many friends in dc, philly and nyc with some of your comments. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's another run and another solution. Don't get all wound up over a day 7-8 run. This has the markings of a major snow event for most of the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You're not exactly making many friends in dc, philly and nyc with some of your comments. Hahaha I'll take the snow in my backyard over friends haha. In all seriousness this is going to end up way better for everyone. Although I think DC's best chance is if the primary someone slides south of them like the models were originally indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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