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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Yeah. 992 low east of NJ hugging the coast. It's warm, but it's there. For 180 or so hours, that's what is most important.

Man, this is going to be one long week with limited sleep...

You said it but you get that feeling that this may be our storm from DC-BOSTON i think. Last year and this one really put up an arguement that although teleconnectors are important no matter you slice them if the stars align you'll get a storm anyway

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What I really like about 0z is it moved to less amplified with yields the colder solution.

This whole pattern is about getting weaker lows that don't cut too close and plenty

of overunning precipitation. Lets hope this stays less amplified and the under 120

northward trend isn't too much.

 

today

 

 

yesterday

 

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From HM before last nights Euro run:

The biggest difference between the ECMWF and GFS is in the stratosphere and how they handle the PV. The GFS suite for a full 24hrs' worth of runs has suggested a stronger stratospheric disturbance and west -NAO. If this feature is legitimate, this fantasy-land, overexposed storm will actually become a real possibility.

Let's see if the ECMWF/EPS head in that direction. Watch the PV - NAO sector !

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What I really like about 0z is it moved to less amplified with yields the colder solution.

This whole pattern is about getting weaker lows that don't cut too close and plenty

of overunning precipitation. Lets hope this stays less amplified and the under 120

northward trend isn't too much.

today

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_168.gif

yesterday

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_192.gif

Yep. It's something DT would say positively tilted SW don't cut , they find there way east of the moutians .

One a SW goes neg in the panhandle it's gona lift the ridge in font of it . We ve been saying for a few weeks now , keep em weaker and they will come under the confluence .

Any modeling this week that shows u early deepening in the run you can shut ur computer off , it will cut . And I don't buy that

I've liked this weekend system for 5 days now because I really bit on the ensembles . Now the operational has followed the control. But haven't spent too much time on this one because I think tomorrow is a big deal and the euro has now made Wednesday system a more widespread colder solution

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And I also like the trend of the euro ensembles and GEFS showing more Davis Strait blocking now which if strong enough

would allow more amplitude and more heavier snow potential. 

 

attachicon.gifEDH101-192.gif

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_z500a_nhem_32.png

We seem to rally in every event this year. When we need a trend we get a trend. Sounds corny but I said this a few weeks ago

It just wants to snow here this year. Sometimes that stuff happens. Been scorched so many times , I'm happy when the atmosphere throws us a bone.

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You're not exactly making many friends in dc, philly and nyc with some of your comments. Hahaha

I'll take the snow in my backyard over friends haha.

 

In all seriousness this is going to end up way better for everyone. Although I think DC's best chance is if the primary someone slides south of them like the models were originally indicating.

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