Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At 204 hours, the Euro develops a low off the mid atlantic coast. Much better run. I see a very weak low developing off the Va capes at hr 186 more energy diving into the trough back over the plains..light snow throughout the area. Looks totally different.Hr 192 light snow continues...weak low moves due east off the Va/NC coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At 216, the low is starting to go through bombogenesis off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 19 light snow continues...weak lo2 moves due east off the Va/NC coastline...more energy diving in Moderate snow in our area as the low comes north at 222. This looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 198 is dry as a new low tries to form Hr 204 low develops just south of Cape Hatteras. Still dry. Going to be a big hit..maybe Hr 210 light snow approaching the area as the low starts bombing..996mb just NE of Cape Hatteras Hr 216 h5 closes off. 987mb 30 or so miles east of Va Beach ..crawling NE. Light snow throughout the area..SNJ and SW of there getting smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What are we looking at now the 9th-10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 222 979 mb 100 miles east of Va Beach. Mod snow. SNJ and the Jersey Shore getting smoked. LI def into some decent snows. Hr 228. 974 mb low well SE of the BM and pulling away. Still snowing nicely over parts on LI..SE mass getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What are we looking at now the 9th-10th? The Euro focuses on another wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What are we looking at now the 9th-10th? Def a different solution on a different day. Nice fantasy storm threat though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 The high is so monstrous this event its gonna be insanely hard for anything to even get to Ohio, I think either this will undercut the high and be similar to a PDII type setup or the high may ultimately just shear the hell out of the disturbance as it tries to exit the PlainsThats what i was thinking. Running something into that high would be VERY difficult. I think this dies in S. OH and transfers off the delmarva and prevents the warm air from surging even to the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Euro focuses on another wave. Its the same wave, it just changes the timing by keeping the shortwave positively tilted until the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its the same wave, it just changes the timing by keeping the shortwave positively tilted until the coast. The OP is a little too suppressed compared to the ensemble mean which takes the track almost right on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The control run is going for broke in the area over the next 10 days , its the coldest of all the guidance for Wed , then it sends the Day 8 and Day 10 threat right through the area and are from Hatteras to the BM . The more important the Ensembles still like the day 8 event . SLP ensemble spread placement still makes me like the threat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS drives primary to detroit and warms 540 all the way to CNY. Ugly run and far cry from an awesome run 0z EURO had this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS drives primary to detroit and warms 540 all the way to CNY. Ugly run and far cry from an awesome run 0z EURO had this morning It tried forming a secondary but the primary becomes to strong. 981mb low drives into Michigan. Since the Euro is suppressed and the GFS is amped and a cutter means anything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 It tried forming a secondary but the primary becomes to strong. 981mb low drives into Michigan. Since the Euro is suppressed and the GFS is amped and a cutter means anything is on the table. Not from a weenies perspective either but with a southern stream system i would prefer the EURO/ensembles over the GFS for a better idea. Overall it performs better in this type of pattern as seen with mondays storm with it being pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I would take front end thumps to IR/ZR any day, 1040mb high, still cuts west lol OK, the snowpack on Monday might help us when the 850's torch over CNJ/SNJ, preventing straight rain for the 5th and 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 I would take front end thumps to IR/ZR any day, 1040mb high, still cuts west lol OK, the snowpack on Monday might help us when the 850's torch over CNJ/SNJ, preventing straight rain for the 5th and 8thWe most likely wont start getting a good idea till monday/ tuesday when the models determine what do with the wednesday storm that would help anchor the 1040Hp over our area or actually let it slide east and have the storm cut. Patience is required right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Anyone think if the current forecasts hold for lots of rain and not much snow...that they'll get in the "who jackpots with highest rain amounts"? mode, once we become accepting of no snow ? Lol I might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Anyone think if the current forecasts hold for lots of rain and not much snow...that they'll get in the "who jackpots with highest rain amounts"? mode, once we become accepting of no snow ? Lol I might This isnt 1997-98 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 FWIW at this range, the GGEM is extremely suppressed. Strong confluence, the storm is in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 FWIW at this range, the GGEM is extremely suppressed. Strong confluence, the storm is in FL. Out of its "accurate" range but with that monsterous high in SE canada it makes more sense over a strong primary to detroit at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Out of its "accurate" range but with that monsterous high in SE canada it makes more sense over a strong primary to detroit at this time The GGEM verification scores in the northern hemisphere are actually around the same (a bit better actually) than the GFS in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro sub 992mb low south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro sub 992mb low south of LI. Is it delayed again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro sub 992mb low south of LI. The 850s are a bit too warm, but the point of all this is that the storm is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Much further north of this run but still shows big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is it delayed again? Feb 9th on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Improvement over 12z GFS but not as good as the PDII look 0z EURO had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bottom line is that this event is still so far out that we'll continue to see many changes with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Improvement over 12z GFS but not as good as the PDII look 0z EURO had The 0z wasn't PDII...it was a bomb that basically nailed people SE of i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.