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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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At 204 hours, the Euro develops a low off the mid atlantic coast. Much better run.

I see a very weak low developing off the Va capes at hr 186 more energy diving into the trough back over the plains..light snow throughout the area. Looks totally different.

Hr 192 light snow continues...weak low moves due east off the Va/NC coastline

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Hr 198 is dry as a new low tries to form

Hr 204 low develops just south of Cape Hatteras. Still dry. Going to be a big hit..maybe

Hr 210 light snow approaching the area as the low starts bombing..996mb just NE of Cape Hatteras

Hr 216 h5 closes off. 987mb 30 or so miles east of Va Beach ..crawling NE. Light snow throughout the area..SNJ and SW of there getting smoked

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The high is so monstrous this event its gonna be insanely hard for anything to even get to Ohio, I think either this will undercut the high and be similar to a PDII type setup or the high may ultimately just shear the hell out of the disturbance as it tries to exit the Plains

Thats what i was thinking. Running something into that high would be VERY difficult. I think this dies in S. OH and transfers off the delmarva and prevents the warm air from surging even to the coastal areas
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The control run is going for broke in the area over the next 10 days , its the coldest of all the guidance for Wed , then it sends the Day 8 and Day 10 threat right through the area and  are  from Hatteras to the BM . 

The more important the Ensembles still like the day 8 event . SLP ensemble spread placement still makes me like the threat .

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GFS drives primary to detroit and warms 540 all the way to CNY. Ugly run and far cry from an awesome run 0z EURO had this morning

 

It tried forming a secondary but the primary becomes to strong. 981mb low drives into Michigan. Since the Euro is suppressed and the GFS is amped and a cutter means anything is on the table.

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It tried forming a secondary but the primary becomes to strong. 981mb low drives into Michigan. Since the Euro is suppressed and the GFS is amped and a cutter means anything is on the table.

Not from a weenies perspective either but with a southern stream system i would prefer the EURO/ensembles over the GFS for a better idea. Overall it performs better in this type of pattern as seen with mondays storm with it being pretty good

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I would take front end thumps to IR/ZR any day, 1040mb high, still cuts west lol OK, the snowpack on Monday might help us when the 850's torch over CNJ/SNJ, preventing straight rain for the 5th and 8th

We most likely wont start getting a good idea till monday/ tuesday when the models determine what do with the wednesday storm that would help anchor the 1040Hp over our area or actually let it slide east and have the storm cut. Patience is required right now.
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Out of its "accurate" range but with that monsterous high in SE canada it makes more sense over a strong primary to detroit at this time

 

The GGEM verification scores in the northern hemisphere are actually around the same (a bit better actually) than the GFS in this time frame.

 

cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

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