REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Would rather the low was shown further SE of us this far out to avoid potential late NW tick. Looks like a bunch of members right near the coast. MSLP_North32America_192.gif well it could be ALOT worse. this storm holds merit, before Ace axed himself earlier today he was right in the Wednesday system being instrumental in helping this threat for the weekend. 50/50 and higher heights towards Greenland would really help this thing stay optimal for us with a quicker transfer. way too far out but just pointing something out that would help this storms cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Would rather the low was shown further SE of us this far out to avoid potential late NW tick. Looks like a bunch of members right near the coast. MSLP_North32America_192.gif I think the NW trend rule only applies to the amplification of the trough, this is an unorthodox pattern to get snow, relying on a massive cold HP with SW disturbance doing a Miller B transfer like Wed, but the snow axis is shifted south due to the Wed storm moved in the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the NW trend rule only applies to the amplification of the trough, this is an unorthodox pattern to get snow, relying on a massive cold HP with SW disturbance doing a Miller B transfer like Wed, but the snow axis is shifted south due to the Wed storm moved in the PV making this setup a lot more complicated as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Cutter again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Cutter again The split flow merged too early on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It wants to run cut the LP into a 1043mb High pressure dome, and 954mb near Nova Scotia lol, screw the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 It wants to run cut the LP into a 1043mb High pressure dome, and 954mb near Nova Scotia lol, screw the GFS its suspect but if that 50/50 can do its dirty work it will anchor that HP there forcing redevelopment off the mid atlantic coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 its suspect but if that 50/50 can do its dirty work it will anchor that HP there forcing redevelopment off the mid atlantic coast The SE Ridge needs to stay suppressed. If we can get the -EPO to stay in place, it'll squash the SE Ridge and the split flow will merge at the proper place, rather than too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The SE Ridge needs to stay suppressed. If we can get the -EPO to stay in place, it'll squash the SE Ridge and the split flow will merge at the proper place, rather than too early. that -EPO has been strong this year! we need it to flex its muscles this time for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 that -EPO has been strong this year! we need it to flex its muscles this time for sure Yup. The -EPO has retrograded, but it'll be nice if it can get back in place by then. BTW, on the 18Z GFS @HR336 is amazing. Nice. I'm not really convinced on that at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yup. The -EPO has retrograded, but it'll be nice if it can get back in place by then. BTW, on the 18Z GFS @HR336 is amazing. Nice. I'm not really convinced on that at all though. at 336 hrs I would hope not or you need to seek some help my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 well it could be ALOT worse. this storm holds merit, before Ace axed himself earlier today he was right in the Wednesday system being instrumental in helping this threat for the weekend. 50/50 and higher heights towards Greenland would really help this thing stay optimal for us with a quicker transfer. way too far out but just pointing something out that would help this storms cause We probably need to see what the pattern looks like right after the mid-week storm exits the field. But the lack of Atlantic blocking will need this to come out very weak to prevent another cut like we are seeing in the forecast for Wednesday. We can't handle any amplitude in this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 We probably need to see what the pattern looks like right after the mid-week storm exits the field. But the lack of Atlantic blocking will need this to come out very weak to prevent another cut like we are seeing in the forecast for Wednesday. stronger the confluence to the north would be better. if we can get that 1040+ arctic HP anchored we'd be in business with a quicker transfer to slow or stop the warm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 stronger the confluence to the north would be better. if we can get that 1040+ arctic HP anchored we'd be in business with a quicker transfer to slow or stop the warm surge I would gladly take one of these if the weather gods decided to smile upon us. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0222.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would gladly take one of these if the weather gods decided to smile upon us. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0222.php that wouldn't be bad either but a PDII redux would be better wishful thinking at this point in the game but anything could happen. its just nice to be able to consistently track threats like this during the winter that have the potential to be pretty big whether they materialize or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 WPC keeps hope alive!----sort of.. kind of... I think ...maybe??? http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GFS is going to shower a different, nicer solution at least for a front end dump. Southern stream seems weaker and phase taking longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well let me start by saying that the arctic high pressure system and the SE ridge hook up. The low still cuts to Buffalo and then transfers to the coast to our northeast. Looked a bit better overall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well let me start by saying that the arctic high pressure system and the SE ridge hook up. The low still cuts to Buffalo and then transfers to the coast to our northeast. Looked a bit better overall though. Do you use stormvista to get the run so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GFS is going to shower a different, nicer solution at least for a front end dump. Southern stream seems weaker and phase taking longer If you mean nice front end thump by 2-3" of rain then you would be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Do you use stormvista to get the run so quickly? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Oh well, put this one on the back burner for awhile anyway. The trough dug a lot more this run but was prevented from sliding east because of the high and the SE ridge conjoined. Assuming that was wrong, probably more of a miller A in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GGEM looks pretty epic. Heavy over running. Primary to Ohio. Secondary pops right over NJ and the coast flips to rain, but this won't be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GGEM looks pretty epic. Heavy over running. Primary to Ohio. Secondary pops right over NJ and the coast flips to rain, but this won't be the final outcome. The high is so monstrous this event its gonna be insanely hard for anything to even get to Ohio, I think either this will undercut the high and be similar to a PDII type setup or the high may ultimately just shear the hell out of the disturbance as it tries to exit the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GEFS mean sends the primary to Chicago with over running snow to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 By looking at 174 hours, the Euro looks to be coming in south and east with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 By looking at 174 hours, the Euro looks to be coming in south and east with the storm. it appears we have a black developing in Greenland on this run...excellent sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What a difference from 12z. Huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow the last few frames have been painfully slow on wb. Hr 180. Light snow approaching the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At 204 hours, the Euro develops a low off the mid atlantic coast. Much better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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